Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Xing]

I think it's always been pretty obvious that WI is the least fertile ground of the MI/PA/WI trio. It's the state where Dems are most dependent on white rural voters to give them a winning coalition, which is problematic for obvious reasons. On top of that, Evers' victory margin in a D+9 Democratic wave year was not exactly impressive, and Dems did worse than Hillary in the one House seat they targeted in the state.

Tammy Baldwin beating a trash-tier candidate by a bit more than the NPV did not suddenly mean Wisconsin was back to being a Democratic stronghold again.

I think it's increasingly less true that Democrats need a lot of rural votes in Wisconsin, the way that Madison is growing and a lot of rural areas are shrinking. And you should know better than anyone why Democrats botched that race in WI-01 (not that it was really winnable.) I don't think it makes sense to call Wisconsin anything other than a Toss-Up, and while an argument could be made for Tilt D for Pennsylvania, I don't think that's a sure thing by any means, and will come down to many different things (the Democratic candidate, their strategy, their message, turnout, etc.) I'd be shocked if Pennsylvania voted more than 2-2.5% to the left of Wisconsin.

[Sestak]

JS has a Neubauer lead at 93%. I don’t remember that...

[Bidenworth2020]

not gonna hold my breath, but how many absentees are out?

[MT Treasurer]

JS has a Neubauer lead at 93%. I don’t remember that...

Not anymore, Hagedorn just took the lead.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

JS has a Neubauer lead at 93%. I don’t remember that...

They're lying. These are the real totals:

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50.2%   573,088
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     49.8%   568,682
3485 of 3638 (96%) Precincts Reporting, 1,141,770 Total Votes

[Sestak]

JS has a Neubauer lead at 93%. I don’t remember that...

They're lying.

Uh that’s some weird phrasing...

[RI]

JS is missing 3 R counties still (was 4 until a second ago).

[YE]

From DDHQ:

Wisconsin State Supreme Court General Election
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50.1%   579,557
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     49.9%   576,247

[Gass3268]

Hagedorn being from Kenosha County and getting a home region bump might have done it.

[Sestak]

DDHQ to 3.3K @ 96%.

[S019]

This is why you don't call races, done until they are, Neubauer definitely still has a path left only being down 0.4% with 96% in

[Scottholes 2.0]

I reckon Atlas will be seeing a "D-Minnesota" tagline under my username in the next 5-6 months if Hagedorn wins! My faith in the future for WI Dems has officially been tainted.

[Bidenworth2020]

I reckon Atlas will be seeing a "D-Minnesota" tagline under my username in the next 5-6 months! Mark my words.

don't give up on WI like this. We are going to fight like hell for it come 2020.

[S019]

I reckon Atlas will be seeing a "D-Minnesota" tagline under my username in the next 5-6 months if Hagedorn wins! My faith in the future for WI Dems has officially been tainted.

Nebauer hasn't lost yet, she still has paths to victory and there will be a recount

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is why you don't call races, done until they are, Neubauer definitely still has a path left only being down 0.4% with 96% in

In theory yes, but in practice No. I knew this was over when it was Dem+14k, but I waited until it was tied just in case. Hagedorn is now enjoying a consistent and stable lead and will soon be bringing Justice to WI!!!

[redjohn]

Very disappointing. Expected a narrow-ish win, this is surprising.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I reckon Atlas will be seeing a "D-Minnesota" tagline under my username in the next 5-6 months if Hagedorn wins! My faith in WI Dems have officially been tainted.

But where will you get Spotted Cow??

This is why you don't call races, done until they are, Neubauer definitely still has a path left only being down 0.4% with 96% in

0.4% is 4K votes. Even if you get some really awesome returns from the 80% outstanding in Outagamie you probably only cut that lead by 500 votes at best. Portage is also probably only like 200-300 net. That's not even counting Rusk which will be a solid Hagedorn.

[Dr. Arch]

I reckon Atlas will be seeing a "D-Minnesota" tagline under my username in the next 5-6 months if Hagedorn wins! My faith in the future for WI Dems has officially been tainted.

Once I'm done with my degree, I'm officially out for sure. WI voters can keep their state backwards if they want.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

I reckon Atlas will be seeing a "D-Minnesota" tagline under my username in the next 5-6 months if Hagedorn wins! My faith in WI Dems have officially been tainted.

But where will you get Spotted Cow??

This is why you don't call races, done until they are, Neubauer definitely still has a path left only being down 0.4% with 96% in

0.4% is 2K votes. Even if you get some really awesome returns from the 80% outstanding in Outagamie you probably only cut that lead by 500 votes at best. That's not even counting Rusk which will be a solid Hagedorn.

Outagamie has technical difficulties. https://fox11online.com/news/election/outagamie-county-experiencing-technical-difficulties-in-spring-primary

But from the faxes on the county website: Hagedorn is getting most of the votes.

[DPKdebator]

Imagine wanting to leave a state over the result of a state Supreme Court election.

[Bidenworth2020]

I would never wish harm on anybody, even Hagedorn voters, but I do think a well-known company or two leaving WI would help them realize the man they just elected.

[RI]

Rusk County was +762 Hagerdorn

[Gass3268]

Nothing from the City of Appleton yet.

[S019]

Journal Sentinel shows Trempaleau with no votes reporting, is anyone sure why?

[Sestak]

OMG the Dems are doomed forever here. Safe R until at least 2068.