Name one time when a Presidential candidate won when the mood was against his party?
1948
1996, 1988, 1984, 1980, 1972 (assuming inability to win Congress is a sign of the mood being against the President's party).
'80 was clearly anti-Democratic, since they lost the Senate and about 30 House seats. The other years were just pro-incumbent, though there was a lot of anti-Gingrich sentiment in '96. '48 was primarily bad polling, like if everyone stopped polling Kerry/Bush immediately after the Democratic convention.