How many CDs has Biden won? (user search)
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  How many CDs has Biden won? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How many CDs has Biden won?  (Read 17582 times)
n1240
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« on: November 10, 2020, 05:46:34 AM »

VA-1 and Va-5 are both Biden-rep districts. 

Biden won neither of these districts.
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n1240
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Posts: 1,207


« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2020, 01:49:33 PM »

VA-1 and Va-5 are both Biden-rep districts. 

Biden won neither of these districts.
Last I checked he was winning both.

https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2020%20November%20General/Site/Presidential.html

I think they've resolved issues where they didn't actually account for county splits by district
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n1240
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2020, 01:59:54 PM »

Slotkin said Trump won MI-08.



Looks like Trump won by .8%
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n1240
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« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2020, 02:26:01 PM »

Decided to check a couple in Harris County. Biden won TX-07 by 8.5% and lost TX-02 by 2.3%.

At a glance it looks like Biden lost IL-17 - in the counties fully contained in the district, Joy King leads by 4839 votes, while Trump leads by 17370. The difference between the two (12531) is larger than the difference between Bustos' district wide lead (11326), so assuming Biden isn't doing better than Bustos in the split counties, it would appear Biden has lost the district.
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n1240
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Posts: 1,207


« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2020, 02:30:00 PM »


Biden is only up 3% in Salt Lake County so he's surely down a reasonable amount districtwide.
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n1240
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Posts: 1,207


« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2020, 03:24:56 PM »

Decided to check a couple in Harris County. Biden won TX-07 by 8.5% and lost TX-02 by 2.3%.

At a glance it looks like Biden lost IL-17 - in the counties fully contained in the district, Joy King leads by 4839 votes, while Trump leads by 17370. The difference between the two (12531) is larger than the difference between Bustos' district wide lead (11326), so assuming Biden isn't doing better than Bustos in the split counties, it would appear Biden has lost the district.

Do you have a source for the TX data, I've been trying to find the data myself?

Just for Harris County:

https://www.harrisvotes.com/ElectionResults/ElectionDay?lang=en-US

Click the house button under each contest to get precinct data.
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n1240
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Posts: 1,207


« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2020, 03:54:32 PM »

Underwood ahead by 3000 votes with 99% reporting(google). Looks like she will hang on

Oh I meant at the presidential level

Not a full calc because I don't feel like writing a script to go through the Kane County precinct data but Biden is running about 3% ahead of Underwood in Lake, roughly in line in McHenry, 3% ahead in Will, and generally between 0-7% better in the limited sample of Kane precincts I've viewed, so I think it's very likely that Biden wins IL-14.
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n1240
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« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2020, 09:23:32 PM »

Biden will win NY-19 in the end, probably by between 3-5 points.

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n1240
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Posts: 1,207


« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2020, 12:39:58 PM »


Unknown until the counties actually post precinct results. Rough estimate using Kings County (only county completely in district) I would say that Biden is winning CA-21 by 8-13 points.
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n1240
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Posts: 1,207


« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2020, 06:48:45 PM »


Unknown until the counties actually post precinct results. Rough estimate using Kings County (only county completely in district) I would say that Biden is winning CA-21 by 8-13 points.

Fresno has precinct data available, might try and analyze it in detail later but eyeballing about 10 mid-sized/large precincts it looks like Biden is outrunning Cox by 11 points there.
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