Texas 2022 megathread

[Roll Roons]

So looks like both the DEM & PUB TX Primaries are going to run-offs?

The following statewide offices appear to be going to runoffs:
LG (D)
AG (R and D)
Land Commissioner (R and D)
Comptroller (D)
Railroad Commissioner (R)

[Saint Milei]

If paxton somehow wins, he wins by a really small amount.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Cisternos is leading but based on votes remaining it looks like TX-28 is gonna keep the indicted guy that keeps fundraising for the GOP.

Great call guys

[_.]

Cuellar takes the lead!

As of 11:20 PM Central Time:

48.15% - 17,224 Votes - Cuellar
47.52% - 17,000 Votes - Cisneros


In San Antonio metro:

70.29% - 8,679 Votes - Cisneros
23.35% - 2,883 Votes - Cuellar

Outside San Antonio metro:

61.22% - 14,341 Votes - Cuellar
35.52% - 8,321 Votes - Cisneros


And this is all without any votes being counted in Starr County, the southernmost county in the district and a large county in its own right, the second-largest in South Texas behind Webb  (exc. the San Antonio region). Starr alone should net some 3K or 4K votes for Cuellar, and put him solidly ahead, by near double digits.

[Matty]

The gop raw vote lead in the primary is going to surpass 2014 and probably 2010 and set a record

Up to 780,000 vote lead

[John Dule]

Loving County continues to troll the entire nation. With 100% of votes counted, it gives 2 votes to Beto, 2 to Michael Cooper... and 4 to Rich Wakeland.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol the DS didn't have a primary anyways this is TX too

All our candidates are gonna be in the GE ballot in Nov stop comparing a primary to a GE result and Beto didn't have an opponent

Its not gonna be a 1010)14 result maybe in TX but not in MI, PA and WI with 4 percent unemployment not 11 we out register Rs look at California we beat Rs 63/37, a total wipeout isn't in the cards for the GOP since they lost so badly in California

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, the D turnout in these primaries are gonna be low FL, OH and TX the frontrunners are already gonna be the Nominee and enthusiasm is gonna be somewhat Lower than 2020 due to the no stimulus checks but all our candidates are gonna be on the November ballot not the primary and we probably gonna have a 64/69 M turnout which will duplicate the 3o3 in 4 percent unemployment but it's a Midterm not a Prez Election and we won 41 H seats with 46)43 M a 64)6o M turnout is blue wave insurance in a Midterm and we have beaten Rs on the NPI and it was tied 33)33 M in 2010/14

But, turnout among D's aren't gonna be low in GE lookat the Cali Recall we beat Rs by a landslide

I look at Election results and don't go by Approvals I go by the NPVI and from 1988/2004 Rs beat us on NPVI except for 2000/1992/1996 and we have beaten Rs since 2006 by 65/60 M from 2006/20

[smoltchanov]

Well, given tendencies of 2020 in RGV (which, generally, seems to continue), i am all out for Cuellar. Cisneros win will, most likely, mean district's flip to Republicans, and ANY Republican congressman/woman from this district will vote much more conservative then Cuellar now.. Even he may lose, but it's at least not so likely.. Yes. he is relatively conservative (though not so much, and by standards of time, when my interest in US politics began. he is even to the left of center), SO WHAT??!! It seems that many Democratc primary voters in his district are relatively conservative too. And i openly admit that i would gladly prefer such Democratic congressmen of recent past as Bright (yes, i know he is a Republican now, but here i speak about him as a Democratic congressman of 2009-2010) and Griffith of Alabama, Boren of Oklahoma, McIntyre of North Carolina and so on to present Republican "alternatives". Their districts have clearly shown an absolute aversion to "progressives" or even "moderate liberals", and it's highly unlikely they will change soon. In such cases burden of adaptation lies clearly on the party (i am absolutely for liberal candidates in liberal areas, but - not here), which MUST run a candidates that fit the districts...

[wbrocks67]

The gop raw vote lead in the primary is going to surpass 2014 and probably 2010 and set a record

Up to 780,000 vote lead

The Dem primary appears to have a lot still out - moreso than GOP. Anyone confirm this though? Harris County, for example is only 65% in

[Coldstream]

Late to this thread so apologies if I’m repeating or missing something obvious, but hasn’t Paxton really underperformed? I’d kind of assumed he’d win a majority against “RINO SWAMP BUSH” etc. Yet Bush has taken him to a run off.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Late to this thread so apologies if I’m repeating or missing something obvious, but hasn’t Paxton really underperformed? I’d kind of assumed he’d win a majority against “RINO SWAMP BUSH” etc. Yet Bush has taken him to a run off.

Bush didn't do that well, he got just a bit more than Gohmert and Guzman. The anti-Paxton vote was just split so he eked out 2nd place.
And Paxton didn't really underperform, overall with all these Mar 1 elections the results aligned up pretty well with polling.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, Gohmert threw away his House seat for nothing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Beto wins an upset here despite the VBM, punditry is trying to compare a non competitive primary, to how many votes Beto is gonna get. Obviously, he is the Dog just like Ryan and Crist, but our Federal and state candidates will be on the ballot, obviously, Voting Rights would of helped but if we get the TRIFECTA we will have 52 seats no Manchin and Sinema obstetrician, Approvals predicted Trump was golms lose a Landslide, but he didn't because unemployment was down from 9 to 7.5 and now it's 4

Obviously, the die hard Beto supporters voters but more will come and Beto is only down 7 not 15

[Calthrina950]

LOL, Gohmert threw away his House seat for nothing.

And that's a good thing. Now he will be out of Congress in January.

[_.]

Coming down to the wire in South Texas with all 285 precincts in TX-28 reporting

As of 9:50 AM Central Time:

49.98% - 26,016 Votes - Cuellar
45.38% - 23,620 Votes - Cisneros


In San Antonio metro:

72.11% - 12,284 Votes - Cisneros
21.58% - 3,667 Votes - Cuellar

Outside San Antonio metro:

63.83% - 22,349 Votes - Cuellar
32.37% - 11,336 Votes - Cisneros

[smoltchanov]

LOL, Gohmert threw away his House seat for nothing.

And that's a good thing. Now he will be out of Congress in January.

[lfromnj]

Overall Betos flip flop on guns is hilarious but it seems unlike Fl dems he is taking his campaign more seriously.  Still Safe R but as Texas Ds are a burgeoning state party having a really bad year could cripple them for a few cycles . Bets serious campaign could prevent this.

[wbrocks67]

Overall Betos flip flop on guns is hilarious but it seems unlike Fl dems he is taking his campaign more seriously.  Still Safe R but as Texas Ds are a burgeoning state party having a really bad year could cripple them for a few cycles . Bets serious campaign could prevent this.

Agreed, the one thing about Beto is that at least he energizes people. I think if it weren't for him, this cycle would be cataclysmic for TX dems.

[Real Texan Politics]

Late to this thread so apologies if I’m repeating or missing something obvious, but hasn’t Paxton really underperformed? I’d kind of assumed he’d win a majority against “RINO SWAMP BUSH” etc. Yet Bush has taken him to a run off.

The Bush dynasty seems to still be popular in Texas.

[Calthrina950]

Late to this thread so apologies if I’m repeating or missing something obvious, but hasn’t Paxton really underperformed? I’d kind of assumed he’d win a majority against “RINO SWAMP BUSH” etc. Yet Bush has taken him to a run off.

The Bush dynasty seems to still be popular in Texas.

Who do you support in the runoff?

[Real Texan Politics]

Late to this thread so apologies if I’m repeating or missing something obvious, but hasn’t Paxton really underperformed? I’d kind of assumed he’d win a majority against “RINO SWAMP BUSH” etc. Yet Bush has taken him to a run off.

The Bush dynasty seems to still be popular in Texas.

Who do you support in the runoff?

Undecided, but leading towards P. Bush.

[ElectionsGuy]

Loving County continues to troll the entire nation. With 100% of votes counted, it gives 2 votes to Beto, 2 to Michael Cooper... and 4 to Rich Wakeland.

The rural west Texas counties that vote 90% R tend to be hilarious in Dem primaries. In Sterling County, there were 4 Democratic votes, and Beto got 1 of them. In King County, where Hillary Clinton got 5 votes and Biden got 8 (in generals), no votes were cast in the Dem primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once the War winds down a 9 pt lead isn't a blow out in TX with Latinos and Beto can come back he isn't Valdez and primary was non competitive stop thinking that a primary is gonna be rep of GE where all Federal candidates are gonna be on the ballot

[_.]

Party with the lead for gubernatorial primaries by county - FINAL NUMBERS

Image Link

2,995,580 Texans voted in these primaries, 17.43% of registered Texan voters.

1,057,637 (35.31%) voted in the Democratic Primary
1,937,943 (64.69%) voted in the Republican Primary


Primary voting swing from 2018 gubernatorial primaries to 2022 gubernatorial primaries

Image Link

Turnout went up by 1.41% in the Democratic primaries and 25.11% up in the Republican primaries, as the total number of voters increased from 2.59 Million to 3.00 Million. In the 2018 primaries, the Republican primaries took up 59.8% of voters, which went up to 64.7% in 2022.


Blue for Democrats
Red for Republicans