PA-Monmouth: Biden+13%

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, pretty sure we can erase the "lower turnuout model" from existence, but I'm glad they did this.

Wow, lines up with the NYT/Siena poll perfectly with the likely voter model (Biden +10)

AND this has a Trump +5 sample, too.

Though the only thing that is odd is the House vote. Even if the safe seats are more safer this time, D+4 still seems low.

A bunch of the internal house polls seemed to show Biden running very closely to Casey's 2018 result (+15 statewide)... at this rate it would not be surprising to see Biden run a similar map to Casey.

[wbrocks67]

"Swing" Counties:

Biden 53
Trump 36

Swing (26% of vote) – counties where the winning margin for either candidate was less than 10 points, with a cumulative vote of 48.6% Clinton and 47.4% Trump (Berks, Bucks, Centre, Chester, Dauphin, Erie, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton).

This all lines up with everything we've seen since 2017. And if this continues to be the case, there's no way Trump can win PA with that big of a blowout in the suburbs / swing counties.

[wbrocks67]

"Many anticipate a secret Trump vote" really means "People who didn't pay close attention in 2016 don't realize that that race swung extremely hard in the last 10 days due to the Comey letter"

This. I don't get what people don't understand about 2016. All you had to do was look at the poll averages and see there was 10%+ undecided in numerous states. And then we found out that those undecided voters went for Trump instead of Clinton. That's it. Not hard to comprehend.

[wbrocks67]

The race among high quality pollsters has been pretty stagnant, actually.

Fox in April: Biden +8
NYT/Siena in June: Biden +10
Monmouth in July: Biden +10/13