Does Bullock have incumbency advantage in the race

[Heir of Camelot]

He absolutely does in that many moderate Republicans have already voted for him in the past. Daines is such a nonexistent campaigner that I think that helps him as well.

[Heir of Camelot]

Montana is NOT trending rightwards. Gallatin has gone from R+5 to D+12 in five years due to all the transplants. A similar trend is emerging in Flathead County and Lewis and Clark County and Missoula Co. was already Portland to begin with.

You could make the argument that Eastern Montana is trending rightwards but it's losing population so not nearly fast enough to compensate for the rapid blue drift of Western Montana. MT Treasurer can confirm this.

[Heir of Camelot]

Because Prez. Candidate quality matters. Hillary was a horrible fit for MT and many left leaning independents sat that one out. Bullock won by 4.5 in that same election. Trump the candidate and his populism was also a good fit in '16 but Trump the Incumbent Prez will be lucky to score a 12 point win. If Biden doesn't phone it in and actually runs a decent campaign he could make it single digits.

[Heir of Camelot]

Montana has an anti-incumbent swing in Presidential reelections. Obama almost won Montana in '08. He lost by like 3 points.

[Heir of Camelot]

12-15 points is my guess. Depends on how he handles this crisis. Biden will perform much better than Hillary here.

Trumps approval rating is only 50% here right now and he leads "generic Dem" by only 6 points currently.

[Heir of Camelot]

Daines will also be tested. His first race was a total layup. His original opponent dropped out due to scandal a few months before the election and his second opponent had no chance.

Daines has shown zero ability to campaign besides running attack ads with Nancy Pelosi, which has zero to do with Bullock and Montanans know it. Bullock is actually linking Daines as a rubber stamp for McConnell which is clever since Moscow Mitch only has 31% approval here. The shoe is on the other foot.

[Heir of Camelot]

I'm not sure Cooney does lose. It will be very close and typically that favors Dems. Fox would be formidable but Gianforte is popular with the base but extremely polarizing and doesn't fit the mold of the type of Republican Governors MT typically elects (like Marc Racicot for example). There is still a strong nativist bent in Montana and Jersey Greg buying the Governor's Mansion is not really a fit for this state's libertarian streak.

[Heir of Camelot]

Want to bet? It will be Steve Bullock by 2-4 points.

He is already slaughtering Daines in campaigning. Just watch both their videos. Daines is stuck in 2014. He is not running against Pelosi, he's running against a popular sitting Governor.