IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2%

[Xing]

I remain skeptical of IA polling, but Ernst definitely isn’t safe if the environment doesn’t get better for Republicans. Still Lean R for now.

[Xing]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

[Xing]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

This poll is literally showing the same margin (1% less actually) than the Selzer poll showed, and that's nonpartisan. Even if you shaved 2-3 points off, it's a tie. So again, not sure how anyone could say this is anything but a tossup right now.

Selzer also had Hubbell winning by 2, so even though they’re generally a good pollster, they can be off a bit as well. I definitely don’t deny that this race is competitive, I simply think that undecideds are probably more likely than not to break for Ernst, thus I’d say she’s a bit favored. If things don’t get better for Republicans or get even worse, then obviously she could lose.