NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[hurricanehink]

I think especially after Murphy's leadership during the covid crisis, he wins easily.

He has a 77% approval rating.

But sure, a squabble with the South Jersey machine is going to sink him in the primary(!) when the vast majority of the voters are in North Jersey, and then he's going to lose the general to a Democrat-turned-Republican from the most remote part of the state in deep blue New Jersey.

Lol, that's one way of looking at it, sure.

Who said Murphy was sunk in the primary? That's ridiculous. He has terrific political instincts, especially on the local level. His brilliant overtaking of the Somerset County Board of Freeholders (in New Jersey, the party that controls the county governing body also controls the politics of the county) has cemented his hold on North Jersey, and therefore the party's nomination. Hell, I still vote in NJ and will be an enthusiastic supporter of his.

South Jersey, outside of Camden, is moving quickly away from Democrats and that is the biggest threat to Norcross' power. Steve Sweeney represents a 50-46 Trump seat. Van Drew's assembly seat was 54-43 Trump. Hugin's performance was exceptional. It is likely inevitable that Norcross will have to work with the GOP even more in the future than he does now to maintain his own power. Van Drew's party switch is in all likelihood just a head start.

You're wrong about Van Drew's political viability, especially in a non-federal race. He is an exceptional vote-getter and, having run in the Philadelphia media market for almost 20 years now, is familiar to far more voters than you realize. The Enquirer would ensure he is covered favorably. He won a comfortable victory in a federal race as the GOP nominee for Senate was winning the same district by double digits. He is now a largely pro-choice Republican with Dem machine support in an overwhelmingly pro-choice state where gubernatorial elections are regularly decided on GOP-friendly tax issues alone. His biggest hurdle would be his newfound effusive praise for Trump (and Trump's of him) which would be easier to overcome in a Biden midterm with low Dem turnout in a state with already (often intentionally) pitiful turnout patterns. Hard to see how he is not one of the strongest possible GOP candidates in a race with the odds already heavily against them.

Van Drew is my congressman. I agree with a lot of your sentiment. Van Drew won’t  have to worry worry about giving up his seat to run. His rally with Trump this January drew him a lot of attention to voters/possible donors across the region.

[hurricanehink]

I wonder if this scary-close election (and the loss of several state senate/assembly seats) will get New Jersey to move their election a year (in either direction, I don't really care). Turnout in 2020 was 72%, with Biden getting 2.6 million votes, and 4.5 million votes, so 100% turnout would be 6.3 million. With 90% of the results in for the governor election and 2.4 million votes, that suggests around 2.6 million total votes, which would be a turnout of 41%.

Assuming yesterday's election had a turnout of 41%, that's actually a slight uptick from 2017 (with a turnout of 38.5%), and slightly higher than 2013 (with a turnout of 39.6%). In Chris Christie's 2009 win, the turnout was 46.9%.

So if the NJ Dems wanna make sure that they don't get screwed, and keep it a "liberal" state (it barely counts as one), they might want to move the election dates. Imagine New Jerseyans not having to vote every single goddamn year, and how much it would save by being held the same time as Congressional elections.