Blanche Lincoln (D) vs Condoleezza Rice (R) (Battle of the Women)

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Well given that this scenario hasn't happened and is unlikely to ever happen, I doubt that any of us have "instant knowledge" of the results in such a scenario.

Your assumption is entirely unrealistic.  Would Rice lose a point or so because she is black, yes.  Would Rice gain a point or so because she is black, yes.  Rice would do fine in MS, AL, GA, NC, TN, VA, FL, and SC.  The only places I'd be concerned about are LA and AR and I'm concerned about those places anyway.

Just because you live in the South doesn't give you instant knowledge of the results in this scenario. Understand, I'm not trying to call the entire South racist, or anything stupid like that. I know a lot of people in Oregon that probably wouldn't vote for a black woman. I'm just trying to be realistic about the outcome.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the south would remain mostly unchanged. Rice's gains in the black vote would be marginal if at all (it's been proven many times, a black Republican candidate does not win over black voters) but she wouldn't lose the GOP base. Lincoln would do much better in the south than Kerry though since she's a moderate southernor. Lincoln however would keep the typical Democratic margins among women nationwide, she might even do better since she has much more appeal than Rice, I think she was actually a homemaker before she got involved in politics. She's a great candidate for the soccer moms. And then of course there's looks. Lincoln has the clear advantage here, and that effects the vote a lot more than you'd think and/or wish. Lincoln is just an overall superior candidate.

[opebo]

Oh give me a break.  I LIVE HERE.  This isn't 1965.   The south is only 20 years behind, not 40 years.. get it right

I'm only going about what I know of my own state - very few white Missourians would vote for a black candidate for president, particularly with a very moderate to conservative white Southern Democrat as an alternative.  I'm assuming it is similar or more so in the South. 

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd have to see some poll numbers, but Condi has actual national security experience.

She's "reluctantly pro-choice," but she's a social conservative overall, so she'd definitely win the South.

I can't see it. Lincoln would do better in the south

Dave

[Josh/Devilman88]

Rice would win the south.  When have black people in state senate and state house and mayors...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rice would win the south.  When have black people in state senate and state house and mayors...

Almost always from black majority districts. The only black Congressman from the South not representing a black majority district is Bishop (D-GA)... and his district was majority black when he was first elected.