The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

Never mind the fact if he picked DeSantis, he'd be surrendering Florida's electoral votes, which he really can't afford, given the 2024 Presidential election probably will be close.

This is not necessarily true.  The text of the 12th Amendment says: "The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves..."

Florida will have 30 electoral votes in the 2024 election.  So if the Trump/DeSantis ticket wins, it depends on how many total EV they have:

1) 300 EV or more: this is easy.  The Florida electors vote for Trump for President and someone out of state (let's say Ivanka Trump) for VP.  Trump and DeSantis each get at least 270 EV and are elected.

2) 285-289 EV: still not a problem but requires careful coordination.  Half of the Florida electors vote Trump for President, Ivanka for VP; the other half vote Ivanka for President, DeSantis for VP.  Again they both get at least 270 and are elected.

3) 270-284 EV: this is tricker and breaks down to subcases depending on which party controls each chamber of Congress.  Control of the House here means controlling a majority of state delegations, not an overall majority of members.

(a) Republicans control the Senate (regardless of House control): like case 1, the Florida electors vote Trump for President and Ivanka for VP.  Trump is elected, and the VP race goes to the Senate, which elects DeSantis.

(b) Republicans control a majority of state delegations in the House, but don't control the Senate: This is the inverse of (a).  The Florida electors vote Ivanka for President and DeSantis for VP.  DeSantis is elected, and the presidential race goes to the House, which elects Trump.

(c) Republicans control neither chamber.  This is the only problematic case.  The Florida electors vote Trump/Ivanka, which elects Trump but ends up with the Senate electing the Democratic VP candidate.

So Trump and DeSantis both being from Florida is a problem only if they win with fewer than 285 EV *and* Republicans end up in control of neither the Senate nor a majority of state delegations in the House.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Al Gore on Meet the Press denies interest in another run.

Former Vice President Al Gore on Sunday knocked down the notion of launching another presidential bid, calling himself a “recovering politician.”

During an appearance on NBC’s “Meet The Press,” moderator Chuck Todd asked Gore about Australia’s last election, which was focused on climate change issues, and about Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s (D) 2020 presidential campaign, which was heavily focused on climate change. Todd asked Gore whether he could launch a similar campaign.


“Jay Inslee tried to run a climate-focused campaign and it didn’t get off the ground. Why not you, Al Gore?” Todd asked.

“Why not me, as a candidate?” Gore replied.

“Leading a climate change presidential campaign in the future,” Todd asked Gore.

“Oh, well, thank you for making the suggestion,” Gore told Todd. “You know, I’m a recovering politician. And the longer I go without a relapse, the less likely one becomes.”

That's a great line!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Actual tea leaf: last night I dreamed JB Pritzker announced he's running for President. I was confident it was reality about a hour into the morning. Doubters BEWARE

Makes me wonder what kind of "tea" you were drinking...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Petereporter/status/1560782743432216578

[GeorgiaModerate]

Klobuchar was asked about whether she’d consider running in 2024:

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/sen-amy-klobuchar-presidential-run-2024/

"President Biden has said that he's running again and I take him at his word," Klobuchar said. "I love my job representing Minnesota in the U.S. Senate, and I think you see why with what we've been able to do the last few months. And it is great to be home getting out talking to people, getting their idea, bringing them back and, yes, going to the State Fair."

So, similar to the non-denials that Warren has given: On the surface, it sounds like it’s a denial.  Except it’s all couched in the context of “Well, Biden is presumably going to run again, so why are you asking me this?”….which dodges the question of whether she would rule it out in a scenario where Biden doesn’t run.

Klobuchar would be even more of a non-starter than Harris is because of her past as a DA. I maintain that to win the Democratic nomination, the eventual nominee will have to support #defundthepolice, at a minimum.

Why?  Biden didn't.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For avoiding jail his best chance is to announce like, now, and hope it scares off Garland from indicting. But he probably thinks he's still invincible or something.

That won't scare off Garland.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1599884730056351745

[GeorgiaModerate]

Stuart Rothenberg with a good article surveying the potential GOP field, peppered with Stu's usual wit.  A sample:

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is considering a run. He has a chance, but only if aliens take over planet Earth and install him as the GOP nominee. A down-the-line conservative, Hutchinson tries to be reasonable and doesn’t yell much. That eliminates him.

https://rollcall.com/2023/03/13/the-incredible-shrinking-gop-presidential-field/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp will not run for President in 2024.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Kemp is the type of politician who really prefers an executive office.  I don't think he'd be happy in the Senate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1668336326004084737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

Further...

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1668406005447770112