CA Congressional Races: Issa and Barragan in trouble?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-7:

Bera 119,848
Jones 114,646

194,810 ballots remain in sacramento county as a whole. Obviously not all will be from this district. Can't call this yet, but Bera looks okay.

CA-44:

Berragan 66,144
Hall, III 63,564

Los Angeles County as a whole has 956,065 ballots left to count. Obviously anything is possible here.

CA-49

Issa 121,549
Applegate 117,442

Orange County as a whole has 215,781 ballots left, and Issa is winning over 60% of the vote there.
San Diego County as a whole has 616,000 ballots left, and Applegate is winning 53% of the vote there.

Not ready to say anything about the final result of CA-49.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-7:

Bera 129,064
Jones 123,056

Ballots left in Sacramento County (as a whole): 136,644

CA-44:

Barragan 66,144
Hall, III 63,564

Ballots left in Los Angeles County: 956,065

CA-49:

Issa 128,515
Applegate 123,562

Ballots left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 122,028
Ballots left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 466,300

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-7:

Bera 129,064
Jones 123,056

Ballots left in Sacramento County (as a whole): 136,644

CA-44:

Barragan 66,144
Hall, III 63,564

Ballots left in Los Angeles County: 956,065

CA-49:

Issa 128,515
Applegate 123,562

Ballots left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 122,028
Ballots left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 466,300

I am ready to call one of the three races:

CA-7:

Bera 129,064 (WINNER)
Jones 123,056

While the numbers have not changed, Sacramento as a whole (not all is this district) updated its ballots left from roughly 136K to roughly 98k. There just isn't enough left to realistically make up all of this gap.

A few more votes came in CA-44. Still no call, and the ballots left # has not changed here:

Berragan 70,303
Hall, III 67,177

CA-49 also has more votes now, but again, no update to # of ballots left, so holding off on calling it:

Issa 134,428
Applegate 129,100

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LA county updated its ballots left from ~956k to ~762k. CA-44 numbers are unchanged from my previous post.

CA-49:

Issa 140374
Applegate 136123

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 92,484
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 273,600

Still not ready to call either remaining race.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nothing new today Re: CA-44

New CA-49 numbers:

Issa 144063
Applegate 139675

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 71,505
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 273,600

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-44 Update:

Berragan 79,295
Hall, III 74,462

Ballots Left in Los Angeles County: 485,616

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-49 Update:

Issa 151,188
Applegate 148,190

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 61,649
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 164,600

#ISSAMARGINUNDER3000

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, let's start with the still-undecided CA-44:

Barragan 84,266
Hall, III 77,937

Votes left in Los Angeles County (as a whole): 319,443

Barragan is starting to pull away here, but looking at turnout in the other districts, the fact that both candidates are still significantly under 100k votes makes me think that a lot of the remaining votes are in this district. So still holding off on declaring a winner here.

However, in CA-49, I am ready to make a rather unfortunate projection:

Issa 154,313 (WINNER)
Applegate 151,965

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 44,478
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 52,600

The margin is continuing to narrow, but there are just not enough votes left for Applegate to catch up (keep in mind that not all votes in these counties are from this specific district) - for a while there was a significant difference in terms of the votes left in SD vs. the votes left in Orange but now they are basically the same. The margins in both have been remarkably consistent throughout the late count - Applegate has bounced between 52.8% and 53.1% in SD, and Issa has bounced between 60.5% and 60.6% in Orange - so it seems quite unlikely that we would suddenly get some 90% Applegate area in SD or some 90% Issa area in Orange - the current margin should be the final margin, give or take a few hundred votes. With the gap still >2k, I just don't see how Applegate does it.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The essentially identical timing between my calls and the AP's calls in both CA-07 and CA-49 is rather interesting.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-44 Update:

Barragan 88,500
Hall, III 81,674

Votes left in Los Angeles County (as a whole): 184,615

About 90% confident that Barragan will win, but I'll still hold off on calling this as it's still possible that the remaining votes are disproportionately from this district and go for Hall by enough to change things.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Applegate has already announced he's running again in 2018 in a fundraising letter.

Enthusiastically Endorsed. Let's kick out the fossil!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ It's really sad that there just aren't enough votes left to close the entire gap.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ It's really sad that there just aren't enough votes left to close the entire gap.

Sorry I do not agree with you on the apparent result, but is there any reasonably accurate idea how many votes are out?  Also, is there a certain threshold at which point there is a state-funded and mandated recount?

The numbers I've been citing for votes left are straight from the SOS's unprocessed ballots report. Unfortunately it only breaks down by county, not by district, so it's not an exact measure (i.e. not all of SD county is in CA-49 and not all of Orange County is in CA-49), but it at least gives a rough estimate. Currently there are about 35k votes left in Orange (which Issa is carrying by 22 points) but only 27k votes left in SD (which Applegate is carrying by 6 points). The margin has tightened in the late count because Orange originally had far less votes to count than SD, but at this point in the count, that is no longer the case. Obviously the race is very close, but basically everything is in and we should get more votes from Orange added in from now on vs. votes from SD. I just don't see how Applegate makes up all of the remaining gap, and clearly the AP doesn't either.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-44 Final Results:

Barragan 92,432
Hall, III 84,728