LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Sol]

Just some general musings on the NCDP....

Blacks/latin@s and liberal whites are an overwhelming majority of the Democratic Party in NC. Interestingly, these are also the two central demographics of the Obama coalition. Which is why all this talk of nominating blue dogs in NC is misguided--even if a blue dog gets through the primary, they'll not be very electable in a general due to base turnout failure.  So instead the best course for victory in a state like NC (tho this really applies in most atlas blue states) is nominating someone who is vaguely akin to a DLCer (albeit slightly more left-wing on economics). This is true even in VA--compare and contrast Warner, who ran as a blue dog, to T-Mac.

The key swing demographic in NC isn't old style D-voters anymore. It's the swingy, R-downballot (but maybe Obama? but we don't like the education cuts in the GA) suburbanites in places like South Charlotte and outer Wake County.

[Sol]

So, relatively conservative (relatively, because there are no REAL conservatives (like Larry McDonald, Bob Stump, John Rarick and David Satterfield were) in Democratic caucus now) are good for "suicidal missions" only, while all other seats "belong" to relative "progressives"?? Not the best fate, and i am sure they will object)))))

I tried to stress that North Carolina is NOT especially liberal state in federal elections, so rumming "non-progressive" makes a lot of sense. Hagan was typical "left of center" Senator (and - among more conservative Democratic senators, BTW). It's not always good to take into account "base" demands ONLY. It's this way (by catering to the "base" which doesn't represent majority view) that Republicans became almost non-competive, say, in California and Oregon, and Democrats - in many southern and border states

Oh, I wasn't saying that NCDP shouldn't run moderates. My point is that the old-style blue dog moderates are not the kind of moderates the NCDP should run--they'd be better off running someone more like McCauliffe than McIntyre.