MD (WaPo/UMD): Hogan leads both by double digits

[President Johnson]

I doubt it, and this could be more evidence polling is broken. However, I would advise the Democrats to play it safe and not take it for granted entirely.

[President Johnson]

I would imagine most of those undecided voters would come home to Ds and again, 49/50 is a high water mark for Hogan at this point. Both Ds only polling at 36/37 seems more of a name rec thing at this point too.

100% agreed on the name rec part, but if Hogan is polling at 49/50 that means that the D not only needs the undecided voters to come home but needs to pull away a bit of Hogan’s support as well.

This should be eminently doable, thus why it is Likely D. But it’s not the home run-slam dunk that it would appear to be in a vacuum.

I guess polls will shift as the election nears. We've seen this pattern in other senate races with popular governors running for senate in safe states as well. By September and into October that effect will probably kick in. In the end, I think Hogan will end up with around 44-46% of the vote, while Throne or Alsobrolls land around 53-55%. Would be a respectable showing for a Republican in a senate race.

[President Johnson]

Everyone on here is pointing to previous races which is a valid argument but I don't think this race is Safe D anymore. However, I find it fascinating that all the red avatars conveniently learned their lesson after Bullock 2020 just in time for Hogan's entry. I remember there were posts saying that the Bredesen/Bayh comparisons were unwaranted and that Bullock was special and could pull it off. Sure, Hogan is the heavy underdog, but comparing to Bullock of all people doesn't make sense.

If Jay Nixon would enter the senate race in Missouri and early poll showed him up, I doubt most red avatars here would argue the race is competitive or even tilting in Nixon's favor.