State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[wbrocks67]

How much did Biden win it by? The Democrat won this by 3. So if Biden did well here, it could be bad for Democrats, but if it was really close, this actually is good. Crazy thing is I considered moving to this district once. There is a nice little community/lifestyle center called Avalon Park there.

Biden won by 4.9%, D last night won by 2.6%, so a 2% underperformance. But honestly given the spending disparity, DeSantis winning it by double digits in 2022, and how allegedly 'unpopular' Biden/Ds are nationwide, that number in a vacuum is pretty damn good imo.

[wbrocks67]

We could be looking at an overperformance for PA HD140 on Tuesday vs. 2020 prez, since it's pretty blue downballot (McCaffery won by 22 last year)

2016 prez: Clinton +10
2020 prez: Biden +10
2022 senate: Fetterman +16
2022 congressional: Fitzpatrick +3
2023 Supreme Court: McCaffery +22

[wbrocks67]

Very curious what the final margin will be but jesus christ, that is just an insane #. GOP continues to drop the ball with VBM.

[wbrocks67]

It's wild though that it's 9pm and there's no election day results in PA. Not sure what's going on there.

[wbrocks67]

Wow. Looks like PA/OK should balance out GA lol.

[wbrocks67]

PA HD140
60% in now

D 77.5%
R 22.5%

[wbrocks67]

PA HD140
67% in

D 73%
R 27%

[wbrocks67]

PA HD140
D 70%
R 30%

80% in

We're likely looking at a D+30-35 win I think at least by the end. Would be a 20-25% overperformance over Biden (+10)