Mr. Moderate's Gubernatorial Scorecard

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So, as of August 12, 2010, here's my initial ratings for the gubernatorial races of 2010. I'll be updating this list periodically with more commentary when a race gets upgraded/downgraded.

Solid Democrat: HI, NH>, NY
Strong Democrat: AR, <CO, CT>, MN
Lean Democrat: CA>, MA>, MD>

Toss-up: <FL, OR, NM

Lean Republican: <ME, VT, MI>, PA, OH, IL, WI, GA, TX
Strong Republican: IA, TN>, NV
Solid Republican: AL, AK, AZ, KS, NE, OK, <SC, SD, UT, WY, ID

Lean Independent: <RI

Balance of Power
2010: 27D - 23R - 0I
2011: 20D - 29R - 1I

[Edit on August 16: Added directional arrows.]

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Any particular reason why it's safe democrat and solid republican?

Yes, a basic lack of consistency on my part.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

MI and PA are arguably "strong Republican" at this point. Does anyone know if there has been any polling of Vermont lately?

I can see the argument on Michigan, but I'd like to see a little distance between now and the primary to make that call. It's certainly one of a number of races that is trending in Republicans' favor.

With Pennsylvania, I don't think you can go and push the Republican candidate too much further than lean. He's got a decent lead, but it's not insurmountable. My gut says that race hasn't fully developed yet the way the one in Michigan has (e.g., Ed Rendell isn't despised).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I never put directional arrows in this one, so I did that just now. That's the direction I anticipate races moving in the current weeks/months.  Those moves may materialize or they may not, but it's a good way of distinguishing between a race like Colorado, where Democrats are heavily favored and Republicans are likely screwed and Connecticut, where Democrats are heavily favored but Republicans may be able to make headway through campaigning once people stop viewing the race with a generic R vs. D lens.

Personally, I think...

1) AR is safer for Dems than NH.
2) CA and MD are tossup.
3) It is very hard for me to call ME and VT right now, I agree with you more on VT than ME, but I don't trust my expertise in New England that much.
4) I'd keep Ohio in toss-up (gut instinct and the polling isn't that clear).
5) I suspect MI and PA are lost causes for Dems, but Lean R is the correct call for now.
6) TN should be Solid Republican - Dems really have no chance there and they know it which is why they all dropped out.
7) OK should be Strong Republican.  Probably so should SC and AZ, but whatever...
RI polling sucks - be forewarned.

There are a few points here that I suspect you could be right on, however:

• I can't put Maryland in toss-up because I genuinely do not believe Republicans will win it. I'm fairly confident in where I've put the state for now -- certainly far more so than my call of California.
• Michigan is developing into a lost cause. It's certainly on a different level than Pennsylvania, where I think the Democrat is capable of making up ground (and further, I presume there's less ground to be made up).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

We've had some activity since I posted this two weeks ago, so I figured now would be a good time to update.

Changed to favor Republicans: HI (arrow added), California (moved to toss-up), Michigan (moved to strong Republican), Pennsylvania (arrow added).

Changed to favor Democrats: FL (from GOP toss-up to Dem toss-up), RI (from Lean Ind to Dem toss-up), PA (arrow removed), GA (arrow added), ID (arrow added).

Solid Democrat: HI>, NH>, NY
Strong Democrat: AR, <CO, CT>, MN
Lean Democrat: MA>, MD>

Toss-up: <FL, OR, NM, CA, RI

Lean Republican: <ME, VT, PA, OH, IL, WI, <GA, TX
Strong Republican: MI, IA, TN>, NV
Solid Republican: AL, AK, AZ, KS, NE, OK, <SC, SD, UT, WY, <ID


Balance of Power
2010: 27D - 23R - 0I
2011: 22D - 28R

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I left Crist as a Republican just because that's what he was elected as.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Just out of interest, why do you have GA as moving towards to the Dems?

Just playing my hunch.

Well, it looks like the Dems chances have gotten better in Florida Bud Chiles drops independent bid.

Far more likely is that Republican chances have gotten better in Florida.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Far more likely is that Republican chances have gotten better in Florida.

Chiles voters have a 60/20 disapprove/approve rating for Scott.

That fact doesn't exist in a vacuum: What do those same voters think about Sink?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Even if Chiles was serving as a placeholder for Scott voters, don't placeholder candidates typically have their support wane on election day as they are no longer viable?  Who would be the ones that remain?

What does Chiles offer Scott voters that other 3rd party candidates don't?  Pretty much just inclusion int he polling and a little name recognition

Viability.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I neglected this for too long, so there are too many changes to track. Here's where I have the races.

Solid Democrat: NY
Strong Democrat: AR>, CO(trending towards Tancredo), NH>, MD
Lean Democrat: CT>, MA>, CA

Toss-up: HI, MN, FL, OR, RI, VT

Lean Republican: <ME, NM, PA, <OH, <IL, WI, <GA, TX
Strong Republican: MI, IA, <SC
Solid Republican: AL, AK, AZ, KS, NE, OK, SD, UT, WY, <ID, TN, NV


Balance of Power
2010: 27D - 23R - 0I
2011: 20D - 30R

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

November 1, 2010: My final picks for the gubernatorial races. There are a few funky calls in there, yes, but I'm trying to be personally predictive and not safe.

Lean Independent: RI (+1I/-1R)

Solid Democrat: NY
Strong Democrat: MD, CA, AR
Lean Democrat: CO, VT
The D side of toss-up: HI, MN, MA, NH
The R side of toss-up: FL, OR, CT
Lean Republican: ME, NM, PA, OH, IL
Strong Republican: SC, WI, GA, TX
Solid Republican: AL, AK, AZ, KS, NE, OK, SD, UT, WY, ID, TN, NV, MI, IA


Balance of Power
2010: 27D - 23R - 0I
2011: 17D - 32R - 1I

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Arkansas closer than California?!?

Sorry, never moved AR back up.