2019 Canadian Federal Election Prediction thread

[DabbingSanta]

Results (vs final prediction):

Popular vote:
Conservative 34%   (-1)
Liberal 33%   (+1)
NDP: 16%   (-1)
Bloc: 8%   (+1)
Green: 7%   (+1)
PPC: 2%   (-1)

Seats:
Liberal 157   (+23)
Conservative 121   (-19)
Bloc 32   (+5)
NDP 24   (-8)
Green 3   (perfect)
Ind 1   (perfect)
PPC 0   (-1)

My riding (London North Centre):
Liberal 43%   (+4)
Conservative 24%   (-8)
NDP 23%   (+8)
Green 8%   (-3)
PPC 2%   (-1)

[MaxQue]

Seems EastAnglianLefty did the best, with 14 seats wrong.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Liberals: 137
Conservatives: 120
Bloc: 39
NDP: 38
Green: 3
PPC: 1

Narrow Majority for Liberals and NDP. I wouldn’t be shocked if there was another election in 18 months given those results.

Not super sold on the numbers (mostly just playing with the numbers 338 gave), but I feel like the Bloc will get more seats than the NDP.

Got the Greens right. Only one off on the Conservatives - let’s blame that on Bernier and the people of Beauce. Bloc wasn’t too far off. Overall, I overestimated NDP and underestimated the Liberals.