2019 Canadian Federal Election Prediction thread

[cp]

Liberals: 160
Tories: 120
NDP: 35
Bloc: 21
Green: 2
PPC: 0

I mean these figures as rough approximations. +-5 seats for all but the Greens and PPC. I think the vote share will be about 35/32/18, with the Bloc, Green, and PPC generally underperforming the polls around.

Outside bet on the Liberals squeaking out a bare majority, too.

[Mike88]

I'm not very good at predictions, but here goes. I predict the popular vote to be very close, with the Tories slightly ahead, but the Liberals will form a strong minority:

31.4% Liberal, 166 seats
31.7% CPC, 110
17.5% NDP, 34
  8.4% Green, 3
  7.9% BQ, 25
  1.5% PPC, 0
  1.6% Others, 0

The Tories will rack up big margins in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba and will win comfortably in British Columbia. In Ontario, the Tories will get a good share of the vote, but not enough to upset the Liberals who will win around 60% of seats. The Libs will be neck and neck with BQ in Quebec in vote share and seats. In Atlantic Canada, the Libs will win all the seats.

[brucejoel99]

In addition to my serious prediction, here's one just for fun: Libs + NDP + Greens fall two seats short of a majority and are forced to rely on independent MP's Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott to govern.

Serious question, because I haven't been paying as nearly as much attention to the Canadian election as I'd have liked to: what are the odds of JWR &/or Philpott being re-elected as independents?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

In addition to my serious prediction, here's one just for fun: Libs + NDP + Greens fall two seats short of a majority and are forced to rely on independent MP's Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott to govern.

Serious question, because I haven't been paying as nearly as much attention to the Canadian election as I'd have liked to: what are the odds of JWR &/or Philpott being re-elected as independents?

JWR probably 50/50 at this point and should be one of the closer races on Election Day
Philpott probably less than 5% I think she finishes a distant third in her riding

[brucejoel99]

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Liberals: 137
Conservatives: 120
Bloc: 39
NDP: 38
Green: 3
PPC: 1

Narrow Majority for Liberals and NDP. I wouldn’t be shocked if there was another election in 18 months given those results.

Not super sold on the numbers (mostly just playing with the numbers 338 gave), but I feel like the Bloc will get more seats than the NDP.

[VPH]

Liberal: 145
Conservative: 120
Bloc Quebecois: 36
NDP: 34
Green: 2
PPC: 1
JWR: 0

A few riding predictions:
Laurier Sainte-Marie: Liberal
Windsor West: Liberal
Davenport: NDP
Edmonton Strathcona: NDP
Vancouver South: Liberal
Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River: NDP
Hochelaga: Bloc
Sherbrooke: Liberal
Milton: Conservative
La Prairie: Liberal
St. John's East: NDP
Burlington: Liberal
Salaberry–Suroît: Bloc
Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke: NDP

[cp]

Thank you for this

[EastAnglianLefty]

I'm going to assume that the BQ do slightly better than anticipated at the expense of the Liberals, but elsewhere the Liberals outperform the polls somewhat due to tactical anti-Tory voting.

So something like:

Lib: 153
Con: 120
BQ: 37
NDP: 26
Green: 2

[jaichind]

Updated prediction

LPC    142
CPC   122
NDP    32
BQ      38
GPC      2
PPC       1
JWR      1    

[brucejoel99]

LPC: 172
CPC: 105
NDP: 30
BQ: 27
GPC: 2
PPC: 1
JWR: 1

[nolesfan2011]

PV % and Seats
Liberals
Conservatives
NDP
Bloc
Green
People’s Party
Independent and Other

Individual Riding Predictions:

Atlantic Canada:
St. John's East
Egmont
Central Nova
Cumberland—Colchester
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook
Acadie—Bathurst
Fredericton
Saint John—Rothesay

Quebec:
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Jonquière
Lac-Saint-Jean
Louis-Hébert
Québec
Berthier—Maskinongé
Beauce
Mégantic—L'Érable
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
Hochelaga
Laurier—Sainte-Marie
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
Abitibi—Témiscamingue
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

Ontario:
Kanata—Carleton
Nepean
Ottawa Centre
Bay of Quinte
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Northumberland—Peterborough South
Peterborough—Kawartha
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
King—Vaughan
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Whitby
York Centre
Scarborough—Agincourt
Beaches—East York
Davenport
Parkdale—High Park
Toronto—Danforth
Brampton East
Oakville
Burlington
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Niagara Falls
Cambridge
Kitchener—Conestoga
Windsor West
Kenora
Sudbury
Sault Ste. Marie

Manitoba
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital
Elmwood—Transcona
Winnipeg South
Winnipeg Centre
Kildonan—St. Paul

Saskatchewan
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
Saskatoon West

Alberta
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Mill Woods
Edmonton Strathcona
Calgary Centre
Calgary Skyview

BC
Kelowna—Lake Country
South Okanagan—West Kootenay
Cloverdale—Langley City
Fleetwood—Port Kells
South Surrey—White Rock
Delta
Steveston—Richmond East
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
Surrey Centre
Burnaby North—Seymour
Vancouver Granville
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam
Courtenay—Alberni
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

PV % and Seats
Liberals 33% 133
Conservatives 32% 124
NDP 18% 38
Bloc 7% 39
Green 6% 3
People’s Party 2% 0
Independent and Other 1 (JWR)

Individual Riding Predictions:

Atlantic Canada:
St. John's East=NDP
Egmont=CPC
Central Nova=LPC
Cumberland—Colchester=LPC
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook=NDP
Acadie—Bathurst=NDP
Fredericton=LPC
Saint John—Rothesay=CPC

Quebec:
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques=BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine=BQ
Jonquière=BQ
Lac-Saint-Jean=BQ
Louis-Hébert=BQ
Québec=BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé=BQ
Beauce=CPC
Mégantic—L'Érable=CPC
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot=BQ
Hochelaga=BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie=BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie=BQ
Abitibi—Témiscamingue=BQ
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou=BQ

Ontario:
Kanata—Carleton=LPC
Nepean=LPC
Ottawa Centre=NDP
Bay of Quinte=LPC
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte=CPC
Northumberland—Peterborough South=LPC
Peterborough—Kawartha=LPC
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill=CPC
King—Vaughan=LPC
Vaughan—Woodbridge=LPC
Whitby=LPC
York Centre=LPC
Scarborough—Agincourt=LPC
Beaches—East York=LPC
Davenport=NDP
Parkdale—High Park=NDP
Toronto—Danforth=NDP
Brampton East=LPC
Oakville=LPC
Burlington=LPC
Flamborough—Glanbrook=CPC
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek=NDP
Niagara Falls=CPC
Cambridge=LPC
Kitchener—Conestoga=LPC
Windsor West=NDP
Kenora=NDP
Sudbury=LPC
Sault Ste. Marie=LPC

Manitoba
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley=CPC
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital=CPC
Elmwood—Transcona=CPC
Winnipeg South=CPC
Winnipeg Centre=NDP
Kildonan—St. Paul=CPC

Saskatchewan
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River=NDP
Saskatoon West=NDP

Alberta
Edmonton Centre=CPC
Edmonton Mill Woods=CPC
Edmonton Strathcona=CPC
Calgary Centre=CPC
Calgary Skyview=CPC

BC
Kelowna—Lake Country=CPC
South Okanagan—West Kootenay=NDP
Cloverdale—Langley City=LPC
Fleetwood—Port Kells=LPC
South Surrey—White Rock=CPC
Delta=LPC
Steveston—Richmond East=CPC
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge=NDP
Surrey Centre=LPC
Burnaby North—Seymour=NDP
Vancouver Granville=IND (JWR)
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam=CPC
Courtenay—Alberni=NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford=NDP
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke=NDP

[un]

From what I've seen so far, I highly doubt any party is gonna get a majority government, including the Liberals holding their current majority. As for who is gonna get more seats overall in parliament, that's uncertain.

[Philly D.]

PV % and Seats
Liberals 32.9% - 139 seats
Conservatives - 32.4% - 121 seats
NDP - 18.9% - 40 seats
Bloc - 6.1% - 35 seats ( the LPC vote in Quebec is a bit more efficient than it used to be thanks to CPC and NDP, they win by 3% there)
Green - 6.7% - 2 seats
People’s Party - 2.2% - 1 seat
Independent and Other 1.1% - 0 seats

Individual Riding Predictions:

Atlantic Canada:
St. John's East - NDP
Egmont - Lib
Central Nova - Lib
Cumberland—Colchester - Con
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook - Lib
West Nova - Con
Acadie—Bathurst - NDP
Fredericton - Lib
Miramichi - Con
Saint John—Rothesay - Con

Quebec:
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques - BQ (snif!)
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine - Lib (very close)
Jonquière - BQ
Lac-Saint-Jean - BQ
Louis-Hébert - Lib
Québec - Lib
Berthier—Maskinongé -NDP
Beauce - PPC
Mégantic—L'Érable - BQ
Richmond--Arthabska - BQ
Sherbrooke - NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot - BQ
Hochelaga - BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie - BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie - NDP
Abitibi—Témiscamingue - BQ
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou - BQ

Ontario:
Kanata—Carleton - Lib
Nepean - Lib
Ottawa Centre - NDP
Bay of Quinte - Lib
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte - Con
Northumberland—Peterborough South - Con
Peterborough—Kawartha - Con (if it's bellweather status doesn't end tonight, it is hard to see when it would)
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill - Con
Markham--Stouffville - Con
King—Vaughan - Con
Vaughan—Woodbridge - Lib
Whitby - Con (coin flip)
York Centre - Lib
Scarborough—Agincourt - Lib
Beaches—East York - Lib
Davenport - NDP
Parkdale—High Park - NDP
Toronto—Danforth - NDP
Brampton East - Lib
Oakville - Lib
Burlington - Lib
Flamborough—Glanbrook - Con
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek - NDP
Niagara Falls - Con
Cambridge - Lib
Kitchener—Conestoga - Con
Windsor West - NDP (by 3500)
Kenora - NDP
Sudbury - Lib
Sault Ste. Marie - Lib

Manitoba
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley - Lib (by 1000)
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital - Lib
Elmwood—Transcona - NDP
Winnipeg South - Lib
Winnipeg Centre - Lib (by 1000)
Kildonan—St. Paul - Con

Saskatchewan
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River - NDP
Saskatoon West - NDP

Alberta
Edmonton Centre - Lib
Edmonton Mill Woods - Con
Edmonton Strathcona - NDP
Calgary Centre - Con
Calgary Skyview - Con

BC
Kelowna—Lake Country - Con
South Okanagan—West Kootenay - NDP
Cloverdale—Langley City
Fleetwood—Port Kells - Lib
South Surrey—White Rock - Con
Delta - Lib
Steveston—Richmond East - Con
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge - Con
Surrey Centre - Lib
Burnaby North—Seymour - Lib
Vancouver Granville - Lib
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam - Con
Courtenay—Alberni - NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford - NDP
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke - NDP

Nunavut - NDP

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

This meme is so stale!

I honestly have no idea what's going to happen. Ontario is hard to predict, polls have been all over the place there, suggesting anywhere from a 13 Liberal lead to a tie. If it's a tie, that could be huge. Also depends where the NDP surge is taking place - if it is in GTA, that could shock people and cause weird results. Just my two cents though!

[tomhguy]

PV% and Seats

Liberal - 34% - 139
Conservative - 32% - 120
NDP - 18% - 40
BQ - 6% - 34
Green - 6% - 2
PP - 2% - 1
IND - 1

[Hatman 🍁]

My predictions: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2019/10/ekos-2019-seat-projection/

[DistingFlyer]

A little late to this party, but here goes:

Liberals - 145
Tories - 125
Bloquistes - 34
New Democrats - 30
Greens - 2
Others - 2

The NDP wave seems to be receding a little bit, and if the elections from 1997 onward are any indication, the incumbent government will do a little better than pre-election polling indicates.

My own constituency of Halifax will probably be rather tight, but I'll give the edge to Andy Fillmore, the Liberal incumbent.

I'll give a margin of error of +/- 12 MPs.


If I may briefly speak to the campaign and not the predictions for just a second . . . Jesus, what a mess! The Tory & Grit campaigns were absolutely pathetic. The NDP (& their leader) have gotten a lot of credit for a great campaign, but it was good only in comparison to (a) the two big parties, and (b) themselves over the previous year or so. The Bloc rise, however, is easily the saddest development of the entire campaign: Robert Rhett in Ottawa & Jeff Davis in Quebec City, if I may invoke two long-past figures.

Given that a recession is thought to be on the cards within the next year or two, I wonder if both the Tories & Liberals were actually hoping to lose this one? Of course the answer's no, but it certainly would explain how limp their campaigns were.

Indeed, if the Liberals do win tonight, this may go against the extraordinary streak of good luck they've had in being out of office at just the right times: 1930-35 (the worst years of the Depression), 1957-63 (the late 50s recession), 1984-93 (the early 90s recession) & 2006-2015 (the late 00s recession). The only big downturn they didn't miss was the early 80s recession, which they very well might have done had they not muscled their way back into government in 1980 after losing in 1979. We shall see what the next couple of years bring . . .

[Politician]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=hn3

Liberals - 149
Conservatives - 116
Bloc Quebecois - 38
New Democrats - 31
Greens - 2
People's Party - 1
Wilson-Raybould - 1

[brucejoel99]

This meme is so stale!

To each their own. I'll never get sick of Jeb! memes, myself.

[Jahiegel]

PV% and seats
Liberals: 31.9%, 137
Conservatives: 32.0%, 125
NDP: 18.1%, 36
Bloc: 6.8%, 35
Green: 7.7%, 3
People’s: 2.4%, 1
Independents and other parties: 1.1%, 1

Individual ridings
Atlantic Canada
St. John's East: NDP
Egmont: CPC
Central Nova: LPC
Cumberland—Colchester: LPC
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook: LPC (changed from NDP)
Acadie—Bathurst: NDP
Fredericton: CPC
Saint John—Rothesay: CPC

Québec
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques: BQ
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine: LPC
Jonquière: BQ
Lac-Saint-Jean: LPC
Louis-Hébert: LPC
Québec: BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé: NDP
Beauce: PPC
Mégantic—L'Érable: CPC
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot: BQ
Hochelaga: BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie: BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie: NDP
Abitibi—Témiscamingue: BQ
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou: BQ

Ontario
Kanata—Carleton: LPC
Nepean: LPC
Ottawa Centre: LPC
Bay of Quinte: LPC
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte: CPC
Northumberland—Peterborough South: LPC (changed from CPC)
Peterborough—Kawartha: LPC
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill: CPC
King—Vaughan: CPC
Vaughan—Woodbridge: LPC
Whitby: CPC
York Centre: LPC
Scarborough—Agincourt: LPC
Beaches—East York: LPC
Davenport: NDP
Parkdale—High Park: NDP
Toronto—Danforth: NDP
Brampton East: LPC
Oakville: LPC
Burlington: LPC
Flamborough—Glanbrook: CPC
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek: NDP
Niagara Falls: CPC
Cambridge: LPC
Kitchener—Conestoga: CPC
Windsor West: NDP
Kenora: NDP
Sudbury: LPC
Sault Ste. Marie: LPC

Manitoba
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley: LPC
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital: LPC
Elmwood—Transcona: CPC
Winnipeg South: LPC
Winnipeg Centre: NDP
Kildonan—St. Paul: CPC

Saskatchewan
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River: CPC
Saskatoon West: NDP

Alberta
Edmonton Centre: CPC
Edmonton Mill Woods: CPC
Edmonton Strathcona: NDP
Calgary Centre: CPC
Calgary Skyview: CPC

BC
Kelowna—Lake Country: CPC
South Okanagan—West Kootenay: NDP
Cloverdale—Langley City: CPC
Fleetwood—Port Kells: LPC
South Surrey—White Rock: CPC
Delta: LPC
Steveston—Richmond East: CPC
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge: CPC
Surrey Centre: LPC
Burnaby North—Seymour: LPC
Vancouver Granville: Independent
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam: CPC
Courtenay—Alberni: NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: NDP
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke: NDP

[Krago]

For sh**ts and giggles:

Cons 133
Lib 133
NDP 33
BQ 33
Green 3
Others 3

[Pericles]

Hope it's not too late. It was a tough call but I'll go with this.
CPC: 135 33%
Liberal: 120 31%
BQ: 43 8%
NDP: 37 17%
Green: 2 7%
PPC: 0 2 or 3%

Bernier loses, Wilson-Raybould wins.

[Politician]

Ridings I predicted would go Liberal, but went Conservative:
West Nova
Northumberland-Peterborough South
Kenora
Regina-Wascana
Cloverdale-Langley City

Ridings I predicted would go Liberal, but went NDP:
Windsor-Tecumeh
Winnipeg Centre
Nunavut

Ridings I predicted would go Liberal, but went Green:
Fredericton

Ridings I predicted would go Conservative, but went Liberal:
Miramachi-Grand Lake
Saint John-Rothesay
Milton
Kitchener-Conestoga (Too close to call, Liberals lead by 273 votes)
Coquitliam-Port Coquitliam

Ridings I predicted would go Conservative, but went NDP:
Elmwood-Transcona

Ridings I predicted would go Conservative, but went BQ:
Trois-Rivieres

Ridings I predicted would go NDP, but went Liberal:
Halifax
Davenport
Toronto-Danforth
Windsor West
Nickel Belt

Ridings I predicted would go NDP, but went Conservative:
Essex
Desnethe-Mississippi
Saskatoon West
Kootenay-Columbia
Port Moody-Coquliam

Ridings I predicted would go NDP, but went BQ:
Berthier-Maskinage

Ridings I predicted would go BQ, but went Liberal:
Gaspesie (too close to call, Liberals lead by 637 votes)
Compton-Stansead
Longeuil-Charles-LeMoyne
Laurier-Sainte-Marie
Hochalega

Ridings I predicted would go BQ, but went Conservative:
Montmagny-L'Islet
Richmond-Arthabaska

Ridings I predicted would go PPC, but went Conservative:
Beauce

[CumbrianLefty]

Ridings I predicted would go NDP, but went BQ:
Berthier-Maskinage

Worst result of the election