The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[boltzy_]

Dozens of Republicans will try running (possibly including Trump, but I doubt this because he seems like the kind of person to go down the Johnson route and eat and smoke his way to a heart attack. Not to mention the countless number of court cases he'll deal with after leaving office), but only a handful will ever even make it to Iowa. Mike Pence seems like a very logical choice, but he has no appeal to anyone who isn't an Evangelical and a cardboard cutout of himself would give him a run for his money. Additionally, history isn't on his side; the last time a one term VP ran for president was '84, and we all know how that worked out. Dan Quayle tried in 2000, but that never went anywhere. The point is, even winning the nomination is a vertical climb for Pence.

The Republicans with the best chance of getting the nomination are (in no particular order) Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, and Josh Hawley (these two are very controversial among the general population, but it's hard for anyone to argue they have been more loyal than them in recent months). Haley is a non-White woman, which would give the GOP the diversity it desperately wants and needs, same for Cruz, but more so for Haley. Hawley has similar credentials to Cruz, but has established himself as a critic of Big Tech, which would give him more appeal to independents, but he's probably ended up alienating a lot of them by his support of the Capitol riot. Pompeo could frame himself as the anti-China and the anti-endless war candidate, but he doesn't appear to have much of a personality either. The battle for the Republican nomination would probably come down to Haley and Cruz. It's hard to say who would come out on top but it's very likely the convention produces either a Haley/Cruz or Cruz/Haley ticket.

The Democratic primaries are a bit more opaque. Biden probably won't say whether he'll run for a second term until the summer of '23. He appears to be healthy for a 78 year old and both of his parents lived into their 90's, but the office of president has a reputation for causing rapid ageing. Right now I'm leaning towards Biden not running for reelection, but who knows? Probably not even Biden himself. Should Biden step aside, VP Kamala Harris would be a shoe in for the nomination, permitting Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez doesn't successfully primary against Sen. Schumer or Trump doesn't land in hot water with the state of NY, causing Gov. Cuomo to become a hero to Democrats and anyone who hates Trump, leading him to reverse his previous stance that he would not run. It's hard to say who Harris would pick as a running mate (probably a White man from the South or Midwest), but it will most likely be her heading the ticket.

[boltzy_]

Any chance Haley had of winning in 2024 are out the window. I'm not sure why she would even choose to repudiate Trump. Denouncing him in such harsh terms is career suicide. Either she plans on retiring from politics and is trying to save her image in the eyes of Democrats or she is extremely out of touch with Republican voters and thinks this is a winning strategy.

[boltzy_]

As of now, the only Republicans that have an over 5-10% chance of getting the nomination are Trump and DeSantis. I've been thinking about who would be a good running mate for them. If Trump is the nominee, I personally wish he not pick DeSantis because he would be too useful in Florida. This might be a bit of an unpopular opinion but I think Ben Carson would be a safe pick for Trump. He has been very loyal to Trump, stays out of controversy, and has a lot of appeal to the Religious Right and would get voters fired up over abortion. Any other ideas I have would be me injecting too much of my own beliefs.

DeSantis being the nominee opens up many more opportunities for running mate but right now I can't think of many people he would seriously entertain. Personally, I think the best choice would be a good representative from a safe Republican area like Paul Gosar.