It strikes me as odd that the high turnout model has Trump doing better than the low turnout model.
It's not that surprising. In places like Iowa, low propensity voters skew white, rural, and lacking a college degree - demographics which would be favorable to Trump on paper. A big worry for Trump's campaign isn't that these voters will flip, but that they just won't turn out for him at the high rates in 2016 (see what happened in Iowa in 2018 where lower turnout among Republicans relative to Democrats hurt them in the House races and kept the Governor's race close).
