When will New Jersey vote Republican again?

[Roll Roons]

Probably not before 2028.

[Roll Roons]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

You don't think someone like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis is a good fit for NJ?

Those hardcore social conservatives are terrible fit for New Jersey. In terms of where the persuadable voters are, Trump is one of the better GOP candidates for the state, hence his unusually strong performance in South Jersey. North Jersey - where the population is - can't be won by a Republican under any circumstances, and thus the state is unwinnable.

Haley and DeSantis aren’t exactly hardcore social conservatives in the same way as someone like Pence. On social issues, they strike me as similar to Chris Christie, who did, of course, get elected and re-elected as governor. As far as Republicans go, their best chance would be with Hogan, but Haley isn’t a terrible fit either and could keep it to single digits in 2024 or 2028 depending on what happens between now and then.

[Roll Roons]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

You don't think someone like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis is a good fit for NJ?

Those hardcore social conservatives are terrible fit for New Jersey. In terms of where the persuadable voters are, Trump is one of the better GOP candidates for the state, hence his unusually strong performance in South Jersey. North Jersey - where the population is - can't be won by a Republican under any circumstances, and thus the state is unwinnable.

Haley and DeSantis aren’t exactly hardcore social conservatives in the same way as someone like Pence. On social issues, they strike me as similar to Chris Christie, who did, of course, get elected and re-elected as governor. As far as Republicans go, their best chance would be with Hogan, but Haley isn’t a terrible fit either and could keep it to single digits in 2024 or 2028 depending on what happens between now and then.

Don't let the Virginia avi fool ya. I was born and raised in the garden state (NJ-07), and I keep close tabs on the political happenings through my friends from home, nearly all of which are involved in their county democratic parties. I know the state well.

Leaving DeSantis aside, since his career is unlikely to recover, Haley absolutely is a terrible fit. Her hardcore fiscal conservatism won't fly anywhere outside of the skylands and the shore. She blocked medicaid expansion in her state while she was governor! As for her social conservatism, she is very anti-choice, and not being a Mike Pence-level zealot isn't enough to make her palatable to the suburban swing voters necessary to keep NJ close. She is substantially more socially conservative than Hugin, who was unable hold Bob Menedez(!) under a double-digit win.

If you want to argue that she's a better fit for the state than someone like Ted Cruz, sure. But there is no national Republican other than Kasich who could keep New Jersey close during a Presidential election, and no Republican on the planet who could carry it under the current coalitions.

I'm originally from NJ-07 as well! I think if Larry Hogan managed to get the GOP nomination, he would likely do pretty well in the state. And Haley, in addition to being less obnoxious about her conservatism than someone like Pence or Cruz, is still probably a better fit for the state than Trump given that she is far less toxic to moderate suburban women. Especially if she runs against a weak candidate like Hillary or Bernie.

And to be fair, Hugin did run in a blue wave year. Steve Lonegan, an ardent Tea Partier who brought in Rick Perry and Sarah Palin to campaign with him, lost by the same amount in the 2013 special despite being a much worse candidate and running against a stronger opponent in Booker.

[Roll Roons]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

You don't think someone like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis is a good fit for NJ?

Those hardcore social conservatives are terrible fit for New Jersey. In terms of where the persuadable voters are, Trump is one of the better GOP candidates for the state, hence his unusually strong performance in South Jersey. North Jersey - where the population is - can't be won by a Republican under any circumstances, and thus the state is unwinnable.

Haley and DeSantis aren’t exactly hardcore social conservatives in the same way as someone like Pence. On social issues, they strike me as similar to Chris Christie, who did, of course, get elected and re-elected as governor. As far as Republicans go, their best chance would be with Hogan, but Haley isn’t a terrible fit either and could keep it to single digits in 2024 or 2028 depending on what happens between now and then.

Don't let the Virginia avi fool ya. I was born and raised in the garden state (NJ-07), and I keep close tabs on the political happenings through my friends from home, nearly all of which are involved in their county democratic parties. I know the state well.

Leaving DeSantis aside, since his career is unlikely to recover, Haley absolutely is a terrible fit. Her hardcore fiscal conservatism won't fly anywhere outside of the skylands and the shore. She blocked medicaid expansion in her state while she was governor! As for her social conservatism, she is very anti-choice, and not being a Mike Pence-level zealot isn't enough to make her palatable to the suburban swing voters necessary to keep NJ close. She is substantially more socially conservative than Hugin, who was unable hold Bob Menedez(!) under a double-digit win.

If you want to argue that she's a better fit for the state than someone like Ted Cruz, sure. But there is no national Republican other than Kasich who could keep New Jersey close during a Presidential election, and no Republican on the planet who could carry it under the current coalitions.

I'm originally from NJ-07 as well! I think if Larry Hogan managed to get the GOP nomination, he would likely do pretty well in the state. And Haley, in addition to being less obnoxious about her conservatism than someone like Pence or Cruz, is still probably a better fit for the state than Trump given that she is far less toxic to moderate suburban women. Especially if she runs against a weak candidate like Hillary or Bernie.

And to be fair, Hugin did run in a blue wave year. Steve Lonegan, an ardent Tea Partier who brought in Rick Perry and Sarah Palin to campaign with him, lost by the same amount in the 2013 special despite being a much worse candidate and running against a stronger opponent in Booker.

FIrst, what part of NJ-07 are you from? I'm from the Union suburbs. Second, I think we're mostly on the same page, but if you're running Haley instead of Trump then I think you wind up with something like the Murphy-Guadagno map, where Haley does worse in South Jersey than Trump but better in the North Jersey suburbs. That said, I don't think it's possible for a Republican in a federal race to lose Somerset County by only 4 points now.

Hogan would do well in New Jersey, but the Republican Party nominating Larry Hogan is just a bridge too far into fantasy,

Short Hills! And yeah exactly. It's about finding the right balance between WWC voters in the South and moderate suburbanites in the North. It's difficult, but I think it'll eventually happen. Possibly in 2032, and maybe earlier than that in a gubernatorial race.

[Roll Roons]

Any Republican that could conceivably win New Jersey would never win the Republican primary.

Someone like Jay Webber could. If he became a congressman and had a national profile being a Freedom Caucus suburban man; he'd do well in Iowa, South Carolina with the evangelicals, New Hampshire with the tax cutters, California and NY and NJ with the suburban Republican type voters.

Webber would coalesce the remaining wings of the Republican Party lane, he'd appeal to the Trumpists with the immigration cred.

I live in NJ-11, the margin by which Webber lost was surprising and not the least because he was successfully painted by Democrats as a right-wing extremist. He has no future in federal politics, and being Freedom Caucus up here is not the way to go. Had Scott Garrett not been tossed in 2016, he very well could have lost by Comstock margins in 2018, he was always out of place which is why he fell before Lance or the others. Morris County is trending D and much of the rest of NJ-11 is the rich suburbs in western Essex County (stretching from Livingston to just west of the Oranges) and Sherrill is from there (she's from Montclair), so you can expect a sizable overperformance there. No one is beating Sherrill this year and Jay Webber won't have any luck in a rematch.

The NJGOP is relatively sane as far as state Republican parties go, but nominating Webber was a bad move. They should have recruited Tony Bucco or a Morris Freeholder. It's weird because he seemed strong on paper, but I guess they didn't realize how conservative he actually was.