Post your BOLD takes for the 2022 midterms

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden's approval rating will increase immediately after the GOP takes both chambers of congress.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden's approval rating will increase immediately after the GOP takes both chambers of congress.

Lol Rs aren't taking both Houses we have a bigger turnout operation than 2010/14, it was 82M same day votes in 2010/14 I know you listen to Election Guy alot, but with a 125M VBM, vote Turnout since 2016 we are gonna get a 303 map, polls underestimate Minority support and there are no OR, ME, MI, PA and WI polls showing us behind, SHOW ME THOSE STATE POLLS AND I WILL IMMEDIATELY TURN MY PREDICTION into an R Nut map, but you believe Mark Kelly is gonna lose and he is ahead by 4

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden's approval rating will increase immediately after the GOP takes both chambers of congress.

Lol Rs aren't taking both Houses we have a bigger turnout operation than 2010/14, it was 82M same day votes in 2010/14 I know you listen to Election Guy alot, but with a 125M VBM, vote Turnout since 2016 we are gonna get a 303 map, polls underestimate Minority support and there are no OR, ME, MI, PA and WI polls showing us behind, SHOW ME THOSE STATE POLLS AND I WILL IMMEDIATELY TURN MY PREDICTION into an R Nut map, but you believe Mark Kelly is gonna lose and he is ahead by 4

High turnout doesn't just help Dems. The 2020 election and VA-Gov 2021 disproved this myth. Turnout this year will for sure be higher than 2010 and 2014, but the GOP is still favored the win both houses of congress unless things change in the meantime. It's possible, but not likely. House is Safe R at this point, the senate Tilt/Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden's approval rating will increase immediately after the GOP takes both chambers of congress.

Lol Rs aren't taking both Houses we have a bigger turnout operation than 2010/14, it was 82M same day votes in 2010/14 I know you listen to Election Guy alot, but with a 125M VBM, vote Turnout since 2016 we are gonna get a 303 map, polls underestimate Minority support and there are no OR, ME, MI, PA and WI polls showing us behind, SHOW ME THOSE STATE POLLS AND I WILL IMMEDIATELY TURN MY PREDICTION into an R Nut map, but you believe Mark Kelly is gonna lose and he is ahead by 4

High turnout doesn't just help Dems. The 2020 election and VA-Gov 2021 disproved this myth. Turnout this year will for sure be higher than 2010 and 2014, but the GOP is still favored the win both houses of congress unless things change in the meantime. It's possible, but not likely. House is Safe R at this point, the senate Tilt/Lean R.

We also won California Gov with high turnout, are you actually a D or an R I didn't say it was gonna be a 413 map but R strategy on MSNBC aren't predicting a landslide for Rs and Trump netted seats twice at 44% and you said Mark Kelly is losing he is winning by 4 pts

I know Snowlabrador has a red avatar he is a Discord pollster and many Ds act Repuyob that forum

Again, show me the OR, ME, MI, PA and WI polls that have Rs ahead like in 2010/14 by 5/9 until there are such polls and not Approvals I won't change my map into an R nut map, THERE ARENT AMY MI, PA AND WI POLLS, DO DS ARE STILL IM THE BALLGAME UMLESS WE LOSE THE BIG THREE PLUS OR AND ME

D's no matter what the polls still believe their party will overcome the odds, otherwise I am not like other Ds that make user Predictions just to make R nut maps, otherwise if it's an R nutap I wouldn't even bothe

As I told Mr, Pieman, Snowlabrador and you and Big NY show me the ME, OR, PA, WI and MI polls that shows  Rs ahead and right now I will change my prediction into an R nut map and it's still only April, oh I forgot there aren't any there are only GA, TX, FL, AZ and NV polls and 42 percent Approvals and Trump netted House seats at 44% in 2020

[Pollster]

No Senate seat switches parties.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Jared Golden wins
Warnock loses the first ballot but wins the runoff
Frank Mrvan loses
Ron Johnson wins by double digits

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Di users know that Mark Kelly and Hassan are ahead and users are not looking at that and posting AZ and NH as Lean R that's how you know it's not a typical R wave and Trump netted H seats in 2020 with 44%  that is bold posting R nut maps and Hassan and Kelly are winning

We are still in this but users look at the bad side not the good sude

How many DOOMER prediction have we had on this thread compared to  optimistic, including myself I am not escaped from Doom but I post more optimistic prediction than DOOMER

[Senator Cris]

Maybe... RI-02 is very close in a GOP blowout?

[SnowLabrador]

Michael Bennet loses.

[MATTROSE94]

Republicans pick up over 100 House seats, all Governors mansions except California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Illinois,  and 8 or 9 Senate seats.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

as I've said before my bold take is that Cunningham does better than Smith 2018.

[Ferguson97]

Republicans pick up over 100 House seats, all Governors mansions except California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Illinois,  and 8 or 9 Senate seats.

Serious predictions only please.

[ProgressiveModerate]

-Republicans flip at least one Biden +15 or higher seat
-Said seat is a predominately suburban seat due to 2016-20 trends that favored the Democrats stalling and slightly reversing.

I’m just curious more as to why the general sentiment seems to be affluent white suburban areas will have the biggest rightwards shift when this is one of the groups where Biden’s approvals haven’t been as trashy as other groups.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

-Republicans flip at least one Biden +15 or higher seat
-Said seat is a predominately suburban seat due to 2016-20 trends that favored the Democrats stalling and slightly reversing.

I’m just curious more as to why the general sentiment seems to be affluent white suburban areas will have the biggest rightwards shift when this is one of the groups where Biden’s approvals haven’t been as trashy as other groups.

I agree. I think most of the reasons for the red wave this year aren't Biden voters voting Republican (that is a big reason but not the main reason), but Republican turnout being record-high while Democratic turnout is record-low.
That means I think some Biden seats that might flip are seats where many presume there is a "floor" for Democrats above 50% but a high Republican floor nevertheless. Ofc people will be astounded at these wins but it can be easily explained by turnout differences. Seats like GA-02 and some of the gerrymandered Illinois seats have potential to flip for this reason.

[ProgressiveModerate]

-Republicans flip at least one Biden +15 or higher seat
-Said seat is a predominately suburban seat due to 2016-20 trends that favored the Democrats stalling and slightly reversing.

I’m just curious more as to why the general sentiment seems to be affluent white suburban areas will have the biggest rightwards shift when this is one of the groups where Biden’s approvals haven’t been as trashy as other groups.

I agree. I think most of the reasons for the red wave this year aren't Biden voters voting Republican (that is a big reason but not the main reason), but Republican turnout being record-high while Democratic turnout is record-low.
That means I think some Biden seats that might flip are seats where many presume there is a "floor" for Democrats above 50% but a high Republican floor nevertheless. Ofc people will be astounded at these wins but it can be easily explained by turnout differences. Seats like GA-02 and some of the gerrymandered Illinois seats have potential to flip for this reason.

As a Dem, I’m more worried about seats such as the Hisapnic Central Valley seats, TX-28, TX-34, NM-02 and 3, and black belt seats where turnout could really make the difference. A lot of these more homogeneous suburban seats are still of concern but if lesser concern as turnout differentials should be less lopsided.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

-Republicans flip at least one Biden +15 or higher seat
-Said seat is a predominately suburban seat due to 2016-20 trends that favored the Democrats stalling and slightly reversing.

I’m just curious more as to why the general sentiment seems to be affluent white suburban areas will have the biggest rightwards shift when this is one of the groups where Biden’s approvals haven’t been as trashy as other groups.

I agree. I think most of the reasons for the red wave this year aren't Biden voters voting Republican (that is a big reason but not the main reason), but Republican turnout being record-high while Democratic turnout is record-low.
That means I think some Biden seats that might flip are seats where many presume there is a "floor" for Democrats above 50% but a high Republican floor nevertheless. Ofc people will be astounded at these wins but it can be easily explained by turnout differences. Seats like GA-02 and some of the gerrymandered Illinois seats have potential to flip for this reason.

As a Dem, I’m more worried about seats such as the Hisapnic Central Valley seats, TX-28, TX-34, NM-02 and 3, and black belt seats where turnout could really make the difference. A lot of these more homogeneous suburban seats are still of concern but if lesser concern as turnout differentials should be less lopsided.

I agree. I mentioned the seats I did because they have high Republican floors (rural Illinois, rural Georgia) and have a theoretically high dem floor that can fall apart with low turnout (black belt voters in Georgia, Chicago suburbs). Most D+10-20 seats with a large amount of minority voters fall under this category.

[Rjjr77]

Nina Turner wins OH-11 primary upsetting Shontel brown
Republicans lose a governorship in a solid R state due to a stupid statement by a candidate.
Republicans win a Senate seat that isnt even in play (Lets say like Illinois or Washington)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Nina Turner wins OH-11 primary upsetting Shontel brown
Republicans lose a governorship in a solid R state due to a stupid statement by a candidate.
Republicans win a Senate seat that isnt even in play (Lets say like Illinois or Washington)

I think this is realistic apart from maybe the 2nd (unless maybe the guy in Kansas does something dumb?). Shontel Brown lost a lot of her best areas in the primary and gained areas that would be more favorable to Nina. It is to be seen though whether the lack of attention on the race helps Turner or Brown, last time the attention probably helped Brown because of all the out-of-state dark money coming in. I would expect Turner to have a good grassroots/ground game, but the extent of that might make the difference.

[EastwoodS]

I really don’t think the GOP winning between 245-265 house seats is unrealistic...at all. The math is there.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

- Biden's approval rating continues to decline until November
- John Boozman is forced into a runoff after failing to make 50% in his Senate primary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really don’t think the GOP winning between 245-265 house seats is unrealistic...at all. The math is there.

That is not going to happen wishful thinking we aren't losing that many blue seats try again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

- Biden's approval rating continues to decline until November
- John Boozman is forced into a runoff after failing to make 50% in his Senate primary

Have they polled any 303 states aside from NH, GA, and NV stop saying things about the Election that they haven't polled yet as I have tolded you before it's a 303 map until they poll the OR, ME, MI, WI and PA polls otherwise we would be behind in AZ and NH we don't need GA it's a wave insurance seat and NV Laxalt isn't up 7

Yeah Biden polls continue to Decline and Hassan is up by 15 and increase from 10 and Kelly is still lesding by 4

[beesley]

- John Boozman is forced into a runoff after failing to make 50% in his Senate primary

Any polling to that effect? Bold but I could understand why that might happen (unless he's more visible in the state than nationally).

[EastwoodS]

I really don’t think the GOP winning between 245-265 house seats is unrealistic...at all. The math is there.

That is not going to happen wishful thinking we aren't losing that many blue seats try again

Not really, wishful thinking is wanting 300 house seats

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

- John Boozman is forced into a runoff after failing to make 50% in his Senate primary

Any polling to that effect? Bold but I could understand why that might happen (unless he's more visible in the state than nationally).

There's been no polling so far, which is a shame.
He has two challengers. One is Jan Morgan, who got 30% against incumbent Governor Asa Hutchinson in 2018 and is hugely popular with the MAGA base and grassroots. The other is Superbowl-playing football star Jake Bequette, who is being funded by billionaire donors and is flooding the state with ads statewide to the point where he is getting way more searches than Boozman according to Google Trends. Boozman is not a particularly well-known or liked Senator, even among his state, so it's not like he has a base of "Boozman supporters". I think he's perhaps even more likely than Murkowski to get primaried out, even though no one's paying attention to the race.