Post your BOLD takes for the 2022 midterms

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

-Republicans flip at least one Biden +15 or higher seat
-Said seat is a predominately suburban seat due to 2016-20 trends that favored the Democrats stalling and slightly reversing.

Turn down the dial just a tad to D+10 or so.  Some Republican challenger will rent such a seat for the next two years before losing in glorious fashion come 2024. 

[Respect and Compassion]

I don't really view this as bold, but I'm fairly confident that Republicans unfortunately will exceed 240 seats in the House, with an excess of 250 within the realm of possibility. Gerrymandering has made the lines more favorable for Democrats but there's also the risk of backfires, such as a hypothetical 4R-0D scenario in Nevada.

I also suspect that Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire will all be flipped from D to R with the margins not being particularly close. I see potential for a high single digit R victory in Arizona and Nevada. And for Georgia to be closer to 5% R-subtract-D margin than 1%. And for New Hampshire to be won by Morse by a margin greater than 1%.

LePage and the Minnesota R Gubernatorial nominee also stand a chance at winning, and it's reasonable to see R victories in all gubernatorial races other than California, New York, Maryland, and Massachusetts. Races like Oregon, Connecticut, etc will be uncomfortably close. Depending on how polls go, I can see myself rating Minnesota and Maine as tossups by October - they're Lean D at best for now. 

[Mr.Phips]

I really don’t think the GOP winning between 245-265 house seats is unrealistic...at all. The math is there.

Would certainly be at the lower end of that.

[Morning in Atlas]

Mild: Kevin Smith nearly beats Morse in the primary.
Medium: Karoline Leavitt wins the primary in NH-1 easily but loses to Pappas.
Spicy: Harold French flips NH-2.

[MT Treasurer]

- Republicans win NV-SEN and PA-SEN by more than Democrats win CO-SEN.
- Hassan does at least 4 points better than Cortez Masto and Kelly and everyone will pretend that they always saw that coming and never had NH as the most likely Senate seat to flip.
- NH-02 only votes slightly to the left of NH-01.
- Republicans win two of GA-02, TX-34, CA-25, and IL-06.
- Herschel Walker does only negligibly (if at all) worse than Brian Kemp/David Perdue and wins an outright majority of the vote in November.

Bonus round (nuclear takes 🔥):
- VT-SEN is (slightly) closer than IA-SEN.
- NY-GOV is (slightly) closer than at least one of TX-GOV and FL-GOV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

- Republicans win NV-SEN and PA-SEN by more than Democrats win CO-SEN.
- Hassan does at least 4 points better than Cortez Masto and Kelly and everyone will pretend that they always saw that coming and never had NH as the most likely Senate seat to flip.
- NH-02 only votes slightly to the left of NH-01.
- Republicans win two of GA-02, TX-34, CA-25, and IL-06.
- Herschel Walker does only negligibly (if at all) worse than Brian Kemp/David Perdue and wins an outright majority of the vote in November.

Bonus round (nuclear takes 🔥):
- VT-SEN is (slightly) closer than IA-SEN.
- NY-GOV is (slightly) closer than at least one of TX-GOV and FL-GOV.

You know very well a 3.0 lead is nothing for our GOTV in Reno in Vegas the Latinos are very similar to Latinos in California alot of them are in Homeless tents in Reno and Vegas and LA and SF

[Chips]

PA-SEN could quite easily go blue even as NV-SEN, GA-SEN and AZ-SEN all go red. Heck if Morse wins the nomination, NH-SEN could go red before PA-SEN.

[UncleSam]

- Much larger Republican majority in House than expected, over 260 seats.
- Biden announces after the midterms he is not going to run in 2024.
- The Senate is not as great for Republicans as they thought it was going to be as several Democratic senators hold on.

Dems couldn't even do this in 2018 with a better battlefield. Even if this year is a red wave, the fact that there are less battleground seats will limit GOP's # of seats to be gained.

Which is why it’s called a bold take lol

Anyway my bold takes:
- Hassan wins by >5
- WA senate is the shocker of the night and is decided by <1 point days later due to late-arriving mail ballots (with a real chance the R holds on)
- Bennet wins by 10+ in CO and CO is not seriously contested again for another 15 years
- Rs win at least one Biden +15 seat
- Warnock does 10 points better than Stacey Abrams
- Laxalt wins Clark county

No one can say they aren’t bold xD

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

- Much larger Republican majority in House than expected, over 260 seats.
- Biden announces after the midterms he is not going to run in 2024.
- The Senate is not as great for Republicans as they thought it was going to be as several Democratic senators hold on.

Dems couldn't even do this in 2018 with a better battlefield. Even if this year is a red wave, the fact that there are less battleground seats will limit GOP's # of seats to be gained.

Eh I wouldn't say that. What usually happens with gerrymandering is there ends up being a lot of seats that are *just* out of reach (around 12-20% towards either party) to prioritize partisan efficiency. In a really big wave, that ends up leaving most of these packed seats as potential flips, even if in anything other than a tsunami they would be safe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laxalt is only up within the margin of error he is a retread from 2018 and he was supposed to win the Gov race against SISOLAK, users act like 3 pts is such a landslide ha

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bold take as of today it's an RH and D S Golden, Pappas survived the margins in the Senate will be 51/47 with possible Runoffs in GA and LA the 303 states are well within the margin of Error which means rural vote that gives Rs 100k vote lead, they count it first can be erased by Provisional ballots, the Rs will win the 413 not 303 states because TX is an oil state not just a Latino state unlike AZ

We don't have any ME, OR, KS MI, PA and WI, MD, KS and MA polls that can be won with D GOTV

I am concerned about OR Betsy Johnson is running a ,3rd party campaign

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Democrats will do far better than expected.

-Limiting the House losses to 25 seats or less (I'm least confident on this)
-They will break even, possibly gaining a governorship or two
-They will break even or possibly gain a Senate seat or two; the map isn't that friendly to Republicans based upon the seats up this year.

Trump and the GOP inward split that he's creating is going to haunt the party in November.  He's goingt to drag some candidates down.

We'll see

You will be very disappointed.

His take is sane, and you still criticize him. I suppose that means I can point out that Oz won't win PA by more than five points with Shapiro on the ballot?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna do far better, let the votes count if D's were Doomed we wouldn't be ahead in AZ and NH that tells you right there the Approvals are bogus Maricopa county is a swing county and Biden won it last time and Rs still think Kelly is gonna lose

Laxalt is the only one leading in a swing state and GA is a runoff anyways and Laxalt lost last time

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Democrats will do far better than expected.

-Limiting the House losses to 25 seats or less (I'm least confident on this)
-They will break even, possibly gaining a governorship or two
-They will break even or possibly gain a Senate seat or two; the map isn't that friendly to Republicans based upon the seats up this year.

Trump and the GOP inward split that he's creating is going to haunt the party in November.  He's goingt to drag some candidates down.

We'll see

You will be very disappointed.

His take is sane, and you still criticize him. I suppose that means I can point out that Oz won't win PA by more than five points with Shapiro on the ballot?

The GOP net losing senate seats in this environment is not sane.

[Xing]

-Laxalt only wins by about 2% (or loses), yet Atlas will still trumpet its “muh 2020 trend” refrain about Nevada
-Hassan narrowly loses
-There is no clear pattern involving moderates/Trumpists/progressives being more or less “electable.” The results are a mish-mash, yet people will cherry-pick to provide evidence of their desired narratives
-Mills does worse than MLG
-Whitmer only does better than Evers by <1%
-Murray wins by double digits
-DeSantis/Rubio “only” win by high single digits
-Latinos trend Democratic relative to 2020 (though not to 2016 or 2018)
-CT-GOV ends up extremely close

[MT Treasurer]

Imagine unironically believing that Laxalt (or any Republican running in a high-profile statewide race in NV, for that matter) will be in real danger of losing on a night when Republicans are winning a Senate race in NH.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laxalt can surely win but he was ahead by 3 pts on EDay 2018 and he lost, granted that 2018 was a D yr but NV is a blue state not red state that's the problem Laxalt faces and he is a retread like Scott Brown was

He is a threat yes he doesn't look like xVance or Eric Trump he looks like Conor Lamb, that's why he is a threat I wouldn't surprised if in a bad night where Ds lose a 100 seats he win but not in a 303 map, Cook still has Senate a Tossup and H going R, because S map follows like Gov map 303 blue wall and the H is a red map we lose TX and FL it's over

[Xing]

Imagine unironically believing that Laxalt (or any Republican running in a high-profile statewide race in NV, for that matter) will be in real danger of losing on a night when Republicans are winning a Senate race in NH.

Yeah, it’s not like NV-SEN voted to the left of NH-SEN the last time this class was up… oh wait.

Anyway, these are “bold” takes, the point is to go against the grain, but of course you never miss a chance to mock a prediction that you don’t personally like.

[sg0508]

Again, look at the gubernatorial and senatorial maps this year and ask yourselves where the big GOP gains are going to come from. I just don't see it.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Again, look at the gubernatorial and senatorial maps this year and ask yourselves where the big GOP gains are going to come from. I just don't see it.

Senate: NV, GA, AZ, NH, potentially WA or CO
Gubernatorial: PA, WI, MI, NV, KS, OR, ME, MN, NM, possibly CT or RI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol there aren't any PA, OH, MI and WI polls so we just have to wait til we get them, and Stacy Abrams is up by 1 pts but if she gets into a Runoff against Kemp, she will win in Jan, Obama and D's are gonna campaign for her but she is behind Perdue

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Again, look at the gubernatorial and senatorial maps this year and ask yourselves where the big GOP gains are going to come from. I just don't see it.

Senate: NV, GA, AZ, potentially WA or CO
Gubernatorial: PA, WI, MI, NV, KS, OR, ME, MN, NM, possibly CT or RI

NH?

[Utah Neolib]

CO-Sen is Safe D
Candidate quality in NH (other than Bolduc) never mattered as much as many people think
Lombardo outperforms Laxalt by 1.5-2 points and drags Laxalt across the finish line
Kemp wins primary outright
Katie Hobbs actually wins (by an incredibly narrow margin)
Kleefish outperforms Ron Johnson (by under 2 points)
Kelly is the least vulnerable toss-up seat incumbent democratic senator (still loses, duh)
Herschel Walker is a good candidate running a decent campaign

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson is very vulnerable he won by 187K votes like Pat Toomey did I don't know why all these Atlasia people except for Pittsburgh believes that Ron Johnson is super safe and Evers is gonna lose we're gonna beat Ron Johnson

News flash Mandel Barnes and Tony Evers beat Scott Walker after Obama campaigned for Barnes in 2018

News flash to Ds we need 52 senators not 50 or 51 so we don't have to deal with Manchin or Sinema if we narrowly hold the H, WI and OH are our 52/53rd seat and MO we haven't heard from that state polling is vulnerable with Grietans, just winning GA and PA without WI or OH is gonna put us right back to where we are now a 51/49 Senate with Filibuster ..Pittsburgh knows this that's why he has endorsed the D nominated in WI

[Schiff for Senate]

Democrats will do far better than expected.

-Limiting the House losses to 25 seats or less (I'm least confident on this)
-They will break even, possibly gaining a governorship or two
-They will break even or possibly gain a Senate seat or two; the map isn't that friendly to Republicans based upon the seats up this year.

Trump and the GOP inward split that he's creating is going to haunt the party in November.  He's goingt to drag some candidates down.

We'll see

You will be very disappointed.

Rich coming from a guy whose 'predictions' are more like wishcasting (CO will not be 'very close,' given that it was Biden+13, is trending leftwards fast, and that the GOP candidate is an extremist even by the GOP's standards).
There's a very GOP bias in your predictions and your reactions to other predictions - you're willing to accept 'hot takes' that the GOP will do massively well in 2022, including quite a few ludicrous 'predictions' that you and others have made, but if someone offers a hot take that seems like it'll help the Democrats, you're suddenly not so open-minded and very much on the offensive. I feel like you'd more readily accept the 'predictions' of a doomer like SnowLabrador than someone who predicts Democrats will do decently in 2022. When there's a very bold and unlikely claim of 260+ seats for the GOP, you simply consider it 'interesting.' On the other hand, when a less bold claim is made that the Democrats'll do good in 2022, your reaction is that they'll be 'very disappointed.' No - it is you who will be disappointed when Oz doesn't win by even 3 points (if he wins at all), when Bennet wins in CO by over 6 points, and when Perdue loses the nomination.