Saskatchewan election 2020

[StateBoiler]

The new Buffalo Party. Ran in 17 seats.

The Green Party. Ran in 60 seats.

Buffalo Party had more total votes.

[StateBoiler]

I don't imagine there's a Wildrose analogue in Saskatchewan waiting to split the right, at least not anywhere in the near future.

There's Buffalo's rural gains and second-places; but that's more akin to the earlier days of Wildrose, and before that entities such as WCC and various Alberta Socred reboot attempts.

But on the whole, unlike the one-party-stateness of Lougheed-era Alberta, Saskatchewan does still have one, single, clear viable opposition force (the NDP), and urban-rural electoral sorting has made that one-clear-optionness all the clearer.  (From Klein onwards in Alta, things are more clearly binary: the Liberals for a quarter century, and now the NDP).

What's the numbers in the NDP's 31st-best district which would need to flip for them to gain power, or how far are they back?

[StateBoiler]

Looking at the latest tallies, here's a quick breakdown:

Saskatoon
SP: 8 (54.2%)
NDP: 6 (42.2%)
2.6% swing to NDP

Regina
SP: 7 (47.8%)
NDP: 5 (45.1%)
1.8% swing to NDP

'Urban' (incl. Saskatoon, Regina, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Swift Current & Yorkton)
SP: 22 (53.8%)
NDP: 11 (41.3%)
1.4% swing to NDP

'Rural' (everywhere else)
SP: 26 (71.7%)
NDP: 2 (18.3%)
0.4% swing to SP

The 2007 & 2011 elections saw a narrowing of the urban-rural divide: 2007 recorded a swing of 10.1% towards the Sask Party in the cities/big towns & a 9.7% swing in the rural areas, while 2011 recorded a swing of 11.3% in urban areas & 6.8% in rural ones.

The last two elections have seen it widen again: 2016 had a 2.3% NDP urban swing & a 2.6% SP rural swing, while 2020 has seen (so far) a 1.4% NDP urban swing & a 0.4% SP rural swing (and that's even with the Buffalo candidates taking 5.6% of the rural vote).

This is one reason why the NDP has managed to make small gains in the last two elections despite virtually neutral provincewide swings (0.0% in 2016 & 0.4% this time): the only marginals left are in the cities, and that's where the swing is greatest. It's not uniform across Regina & Saskatoon, of course, as some suburban ridings have recorded increased Sask Party majorities in 2016 &/or 2020.

I like that you list Saskatoon and Regina results, and then list urban being 22-11, when Regina/Saskatoon combined is 15-11. So what's the swing in the Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Swift Current, and Yorkton seats the Saskatchewan Party had a 7-0 sweep in?

[StateBoiler]

I'm colorblind, shades kill me, and graphs like this anger me because I'm lost. Not blaming you, just the heavy use of close shades in political science makes me bang my head in the wall.

[StateBoiler]

I'm wondering if it's a matter of Riversdale having coasted on Romanow/Calvert fumes until now, which made it look like more of a dead cert relative to the present-day NDP than it actually was--that is, there's just a bit too much on the far side of Circle Drive and whatnot that's not dissimilar to Sask Party suburban bastions elsewhere, and not enough on the near side to compensate.

One thing about the swing map that's interesting: the far SE/SW swinging heavily to the NDP by default because Buffalo took so much of the Sask vote and the NDP was already too depleted for much further sinkage...

Is the Buffalo Party vote all toward the southern border?

[StateBoiler]

I wonder how the characters from Corner Gas voted

Sask Party based on where they lived!