Is the polling industry wrong, or is something else wrong?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes the GCB is D +1 and Trump isn't ahead by 8 in AZ and 9 natl it's a polling bump from the primary as I said it's polls not votes and Rassy has Biden at 45)53 Favs not 39

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The national polls are currently not reliable. If you look at each state polling, from Atlas polling aggregate, and distribute the weight of each state in the popular vote, Biden and Trump are basically tied at 41%, with Biden holding a very tiny lead if you add decimals. Of course, it's still early and a lot of states don't have strong trends to show, but Trump +10 or Biden +10 polls nationwide, are junk and not remotely close to the truth.

A lot of the state polling is old. The newer/higher quality state polling (ie NYT) shows Trump up by 5 in the swing states. Also, California/New York seem to be shifting hard right in state polling, as well as turnout differentials between red/blue states (ie blue states probably turned out more in 2020 due to mail-ins), could give Trump the PV.

[pantsaregood]

Polling probably isn't wrong, but it also isn't particularly useful right now. We're seeing polls with massive third party shares and both serious candidates in the low 40s. It doesn't seem particularly likely that either candidate manages to get less than 46% of the vote.

There are a lot of "progressives" out there who are "making a statement" by saying they're undecided or voting third party that will ultimately vote for Biden. There are a lot of "please not Trump" Republicans out there holding out for some DeSantis miracle who will ultimately vote for Trump.

[jvmh2009]

Nonresponse bias was a major issue in 2020. It's not hard to believe it's an issue this year, just for the opposite side. One side has an active primary, the other doesn't. That can lead to whacky results, since one side is much more energized and paying attention to the race while another side isn't.

It's the same reason why some days we have Trump +1 with young voters and other days we have Biden +25. A lot of pollsters don't seem to be very good at working through this.

Another thing to note is that the generic ballot should be showing some strength for Democrats right now, given current election results. But it doesn't, it's basically 1 or 2% within the Biden/Trump margin.

We had an actual midterm in 2022, where the generic ballot was R +2.8. The generic ballot results make sense.

And that's why the 2010 R+6.8 led to President Romney in 2012 and 2018 D+8.6 led to democratic supermajorities in 2020.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Nonresponse bias was a major issue in 2020. It's not hard to believe it's an issue this year, just for the opposite side. One side has an active primary, the other doesn't. That can lead to whacky results, since one side is much more energized and paying attention to the race while another side isn't.

It's the same reason why some days we have Trump +1 with young voters and other days we have Biden +25. A lot of pollsters don't seem to be very good at working through this.

Another thing to note is that the generic ballot should be showing some strength for Democrats right now, given current election results. But it doesn't, it's basically 1 or 2% within the Biden/Trump margin.

We had an actual midterm in 2022, where the generic ballot was R +2.8. The generic ballot results make sense.

And that's why the 2010 R+6.8 led to President Romney in 2012 and 2018 D+8.6 led to democratic supermajorities in 2020.

Yeah I don’t think 2022 is reliable. I think Florida will trend left and Pennsylvania will trend right in 2024.

[Mr. Smith]

These aren't mutually exclusive statements, both ideas can be true.

[jvmh2009]

I don't even know why I'm acting like joe bidens strongest soldier atm. sh**t, I wrote in my uncle in 2012, my father in law in 2016, and the only reason I voted for Biden in 2020 was because I thought my wife voted for Trump and I wanted our votes to cancel out lol. I'm up in the air for 2024. Cornel west is most like me politically,  but rfk is a climate guy so I could go either way. I'm only slightly more likely to vote for Biden versus Trump and the only way I would ever vote for Trump was if he was running against hitler.

That all being said, anecdotally, trumps lead everywhere makes little sense to me. I don't wear my politics on my sleeve, and based off my looks, most assume I'm a Maga guy so people of all stripes freely give me their political opinions with me giving little in return. All I keep hearing is how people just plain aren't gonna vote for president if those are the top 2 choices or they are voting 3rd party. I live in an 80 r/ 20 d County so the anecdotes are heavily skewed one way.

I just don't trust polling atm because it doesn't reflect a reality I see..... if the primary polls were more competitive, I could understand the toplines of the general... dems being unhappy with the candidate and showing the party through the primary.... but a whole sale switch after almost every real life election shows otherwise... nah... you all be tripping.

Another tasty anecdote. I work 3 jobs and have since 2017. I have an office job in the construction industry, run a small service based company, and farm a little on the side. Average about 60-75 hrs per week. Other than 2021 in the construction job; bidens presidency has been hands down better for me economically. Not even close honestly. Even my boss, the type who wears a large cross necklace at all times, admits this frequently. He's still absolutely voting Trump but he admits it. The farming industry in our area is absolutely going gang busters right now.... the amount of growth is not something I have seen in my lifetime.

Lastly, I am sick and tired of hearing about the upcoming recession/depression. I have heard from a coworker almost everyday since November 2020 about how the depression is coming, the depression is coming.... it's been 3 years now.... I guess this will be the most anticipated economic depression of all time...don't get me wrong, a depression or recession will surely happen again; they are a staple of capitalism, and one is always right around the corner but this to the point ofincessant mental masturbation calling for a recession all the time.

[pantsaregood]

I don't even know why I'm acting like joe bidens strongest soldier atm. sh**t, I wrote in my uncle in 2012, my father in law in 2016, and the only reason I voted for Biden in 2020 was because I thought my wife voted for Trump and I wanted our votes to cancel out lol. I'm up in the air for 2024. Cornel west is most like me politically,  but rfk is a climate guy so I could go either way. I'm only slightly more likely to vote for Biden versus Trump and the only way I would ever vote for Trump was if he was running against hitler.

That all being said, anecdotally, trumps lead everywhere makes little sense to me. I don't wear my politics on my sleeve, and based off my looks, most assume I'm a Maga guy so people of all stripes freely give me their political opinions with me giving little in return. All I keep hearing is how people just plain aren't gonna vote for president if those are the top 2 choices or they are voting 3rd party. I live in an 80 r/ 20 d County so the anecdotes are heavily skewed one way.

I just don't trust polling atm because it doesn't reflect a reality I see..... if the primary polls were more competitive, I could understand the toplines of the general... dems being unhappy with the candidate and showing the party through the primary.... but a whole sale switch after almost every real life election shows otherwise... nah... you all be tripping.

Another tasty anecdote. I work 3 jobs and have since 2017. I have an office job in the construction industry, run a small service based company, and farm a little on the side. Average about 60-75 hrs per week. Other than 2021 in the construction job; bidens presidency has been hands down better for me economically. Not even close honestly. Even my boss, the type who wears a large cross necklace at all times, admits this frequently. He's still absolutely voting Trump but he admits it. The farming industry in our area is absolutely going gang busters right now.... the amount of growth is not something I have seen in my lifetime.

Lastly, I am sick and tired of hearing about the upcoming recession/depression. I have heard from a coworker almost everyday since November 2020 about how the depression is coming, the depression is coming.... it's been 3 years now.... I guess this will be the most anticipated economic depression of all time...don't get me wrong, a depression or recession will surely happen again; they are a staple of capitalism, and one is always right around the corner but this to the point ofincessant mental masturbation calling for a recession all the time.

Might as well not vote if you're going to vote third party. Same effect, less effort.

[jvmh2009]

I don't even know why I'm acting like joe bidens strongest soldier atm. sh**t, I wrote in my uncle in 2012, my father in law in 2016, and the only reason I voted for Biden in 2020 was because I thought my wife voted for Trump and I wanted our votes to cancel out lol. I'm up in the air for 2024. Cornel west is most like me politically,  but rfk is a climate guy so I could go either way. I'm only slightly more likely to vote for Biden versus Trump and the only way I would ever vote for Trump was if he was running against hitler.

That all being said, anecdotally, trumps lead everywhere makes little sense to me. I don't wear my politics on my sleeve, and based off my looks, most assume I'm a Maga guy so people of all stripes freely give me their political opinions with me giving little in return. All I keep hearing is how people just plain aren't gonna vote for president if those are the top 2 choices or they are voting 3rd party. I live in an 80 r/ 20 d County so the anecdotes are heavily skewed one way.

I just don't trust polling atm because it doesn't reflect a reality I see..... if the primary polls were more competitive, I could understand the toplines of the general... dems being unhappy with the candidate and showing the party through the primary.... but a whole sale switch after almost every real life election shows otherwise... nah... you all be tripping.

Another tasty anecdote. I work 3 jobs and have since 2017. I have an office job in the construction industry, run a small service based company, and farm a little on the side. Average about 60-75 hrs per week. Other than 2021 in the construction job; bidens presidency has been hands down better for me economically. Not even close honestly. Even my boss, the type who wears a large cross necklace at all times, admits this frequently. He's still absolutely voting Trump but he admits it. The farming industry in our area is absolutely going gang busters right now.... the amount of growth is not something I have seen in my lifetime.

Lastly, I am sick and tired of hearing about the upcoming recession/depression. I have heard from a coworker almost everyday since November 2020 about how the depression is coming, the depression is coming.... it's been 3 years now.... I guess this will be the most anticipated economic depression of all time...don't get me wrong, a depression or recession will surely happen again; they are a staple of capitalism, and one is always right around the corner but this to the point ofincessant mental masturbation calling for a recession all the time.

Might as well not vote if you're going to vote third party. Same effect, less effort.

Awesome response... super original and well thought out.

[pantsaregood]

I don't even know why I'm acting like joe bidens strongest soldier atm. sh**t, I wrote in my uncle in 2012, my father in law in 2016, and the only reason I voted for Biden in 2020 was because I thought my wife voted for Trump and I wanted our votes to cancel out lol. I'm up in the air for 2024. Cornel west is most like me politically,  but rfk is a climate guy so I could go either way. I'm only slightly more likely to vote for Biden versus Trump and the only way I would ever vote for Trump was if he was running against hitler.

That all being said, anecdotally, trumps lead everywhere makes little sense to me. I don't wear my politics on my sleeve, and based off my looks, most assume I'm a Maga guy so people of all stripes freely give me their political opinions with me giving little in return. All I keep hearing is how people just plain aren't gonna vote for president if those are the top 2 choices or they are voting 3rd party. I live in an 80 r/ 20 d County so the anecdotes are heavily skewed one way.

I just don't trust polling atm because it doesn't reflect a reality I see..... if the primary polls were more competitive, I could understand the toplines of the general... dems being unhappy with the candidate and showing the party through the primary.... but a whole sale switch after almost every real life election shows otherwise... nah... you all be tripping.

Another tasty anecdote. I work 3 jobs and have since 2017. I have an office job in the construction industry, run a small service based company, and farm a little on the side. Average about 60-75 hrs per week. Other than 2021 in the construction job; bidens presidency has been hands down better for me economically. Not even close honestly. Even my boss, the type who wears a large cross necklace at all times, admits this frequently. He's still absolutely voting Trump but he admits it. The farming industry in our area is absolutely going gang busters right now.... the amount of growth is not something I have seen in my lifetime.

Lastly, I am sick and tired of hearing about the upcoming recession/depression. I have heard from a coworker almost everyday since November 2020 about how the depression is coming, the depression is coming.... it's been 3 years now.... I guess this will be the most anticipated economic depression of all time...don't get me wrong, a depression or recession will surely happen again; they are a staple of capitalism, and one is always right around the corner but this to the point ofincessant mental masturbation calling for a recession all the time.

Might as well not vote if you're going to vote third party. Same effect, less effort.

Awesome response... super original and well thought out.

It doesn't have to be original to be accurate. The same applies to people who voted Libertarian in KY-GOV 2019 or GA-SEN in 2020. GA-SEN is actually an interesting case because voting for a third party was actively worse than not voting, given that it forced a runoff that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

[Mr. Smith]

I don't even know why I'm acting like joe bidens strongest soldier atm. sh**t, I wrote in my uncle in 2012, my father in law in 2016, and the only reason I voted for Biden in 2020 was because I thought my wife voted for Trump and I wanted our votes to cancel out lol. I'm up in the air for 2024. Cornel west is most like me politically,  but rfk is a climate guy so I could go either way. I'm only slightly more likely to vote for Biden versus Trump and the only way I would ever vote for Trump was if he was running against hitler.

That all being said, anecdotally, trumps lead everywhere makes little sense to me. I don't wear my politics on my sleeve, and based off my looks, most assume I'm a Maga guy so people of all stripes freely give me their political opinions with me giving little in return. All I keep hearing is how people just plain aren't gonna vote for president if those are the top 2 choices or they are voting 3rd party. I live in an 80 r/ 20 d County so the anecdotes are heavily skewed one way.

I just don't trust polling atm because it doesn't reflect a reality I see..... if the primary polls were more competitive, I could understand the toplines of the general... dems being unhappy with the candidate and showing the party through the primary.... but a whole sale switch after almost every real life election shows otherwise... nah... you all be tripping.

Another tasty anecdote. I work 3 jobs and have since 2017. I have an office job in the construction industry, run a small service based company, and farm a little on the side. Average about 60-75 hrs per week. Other than 2021 in the construction job; bidens presidency has been hands down better for me economically. Not even close honestly. Even my boss, the type who wears a large cross necklace at all times, admits this frequently. He's still absolutely voting Trump but he admits it. The farming industry in our area is absolutely going gang busters right now.... the amount of growth is not something I have seen in my lifetime.

Lastly, I am sick and tired of hearing about the upcoming recession/depression. I have heard from a coworker almost everyday since November 2020 about how the depression is coming, the depression is coming.... it's been 3 years now.... I guess this will be the most anticipated economic depression of all time...don't get me wrong, a depression or recession will surely happen again; they are a staple of capitalism, and one is always right around the corner but this to the point ofincessant mental masturbation calling for a recession all the time.

Might as well not vote if you're going to vote third party. Same effect, less effort.

Awesome response... super original and well thought out.

It doesn't have to be original to be accurate. The same applies to people who voted Libertarian in KY-GOV 2019 or GA-SEN in 2020. GA-SEN is actually an interesting case because voting for a third party was actively worse than not voting, given that it forced a runoff that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

GA-SEN 2020 was going to be run-off regardless thanks to Doug Collins who was [checks notes], still Republican.

[jvmh2009]

I don't even know why I'm acting like joe bidens strongest soldier atm. sh**t, I wrote in my uncle in 2012, my father in law in 2016, and the only reason I voted for Biden in 2020 was because I thought my wife voted for Trump and I wanted our votes to cancel out lol. I'm up in the air for 2024. Cornel west is most like me politically,  but rfk is a climate guy so I could go either way. I'm only slightly more likely to vote for Biden versus Trump and the only way I would ever vote for Trump was if he was running against hitler.

That all being said, anecdotally, trumps lead everywhere makes little sense to me. I don't wear my politics on my sleeve, and based off my looks, most assume I'm a Maga guy so people of all stripes freely give me their political opinions with me giving little in return. All I keep hearing is how people just plain aren't gonna vote for president if those are the top 2 choices or they are voting 3rd party. I live in an 80 r/ 20 d County so the anecdotes are heavily skewed one way.

I just don't trust polling atm because it doesn't reflect a reality I see..... if the primary polls were more competitive, I could understand the toplines of the general... dems being unhappy with the candidate and showing the party through the primary.... but a whole sale switch after almost every real life election shows otherwise... nah... you all be tripping.

Another tasty anecdote. I work 3 jobs and have since 2017. I have an office job in the construction industry, run a small service based company, and farm a little on the side. Average about 60-75 hrs per week. Other than 2021 in the construction job; bidens presidency has been hands down better for me economically. Not even close honestly. Even my boss, the type who wears a large cross necklace at all times, admits this frequently. He's still absolutely voting Trump but he admits it. The farming industry in our area is absolutely going gang busters right now.... the amount of growth is not something I have seen in my lifetime.

Lastly, I am sick and tired of hearing about the upcoming recession/depression. I have heard from a coworker almost everyday since November 2020 about how the depression is coming, the depression is coming.... it's been 3 years now.... I guess this will be the most anticipated economic depression of all time...don't get me wrong, a depression or recession will surely happen again; they are a staple of capitalism, and one is always right around the corner but this to the point ofincessant mental masturbation calling for a recession all the time.

Might as well not vote if you're going to vote third party. Same effect, less effort.

Awesome response... super original and well thought out.

It doesn't have to be original to be accurate. The same applies to people who voted Libertarian in KY-GOV 2019 or GA-SEN in 2020. GA-SEN is actually an interesting case because voting for a third party was actively worse than not voting, given that it forced a runoff that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

But is it though? You have no idea how I vote down ballot, or my voting tendencies. Instead of telling me not to vot, wouldn't it make more sense to try and get me to be a reliable voter for your party?

It is rather ironic that an avatar for a party that is supposed to be about "democratic" processes is advocating for an individual to eschew voting because said person isn't a huge fan of their candidate.

[pantsaregood]

GA-SEN 2020 was going to be run-off regardless thanks to Doug Collins who was [checks notes], still Republican.

David Perdue would've had a majority if Shane Hazel hadn't been involved. There would've been no majority. If there are only two candidates, the only possible outcomes are a tie or one of the candidates achieving a majority. Jon Ossoff is a Senator precisely because Shane Hazel kept David Perdue under 50%. Doug Collins was not involved in this race.

But is it though? You have no idea how I vote down ballot, or my voting tendencies. Instead of telling me not to vot, wouldn't it make more sense to try and get me to be a reliable voter for your party?

It is rather ironic that an avatar for a party that is supposed to be about "democratic" processes is advocating for an individual to eschew voting because said person isn't a huge fan of their candidate.

You're right, I don't know how you vote downballot. Maybe it would've been more reasonable to suggest leaving President blank while voting downballot.

I also never implied you should eschew voting because it isn't in favor of my candidate - I implied that third party votes are a waste of time. If you don't like Donald Trump or Joe Biden AND you recognize that they are the only candidates that have any chance of winning the race, then you only need to dislike Donald Trump less than Joe Biden or dislike Joe Biden less than Donald Trump in order to make a decision.

With the American electoral system, rational voting is always about minimizing the odds of victory for the worst possible outcome.

If you believe in pushing different voting systems that don't converge into two party systems and/or prevent votes from being wasted, then I'm on board. As of now, voting for third parties generally accomplishes nothing for enacting change through democracy (the purpose of voting, presumably) - it either has the same effect as not voting or - in cases like GA-SEN 2020, can actually flip elections.

[jvmh2009]

GA-SEN 2020 was going to be run-off regardless thanks to Doug Collins who was [checks notes], still Republican.

David Perdue would've had a majority if Shane Hazel hadn't been involved. There would've been no majority. If there are only two candidates, the only possible outcomes are a tie or one of the candidates achieving a majority. Jon Ossoff is a Senator precisely because Shane Hazel kept David Perdue under 50%. Doug Collins was not involved in this race.

But is it though? You have no idea how I vote down ballot, or my voting tendencies. Instead of telling me not to vot, wouldn't it make more sense to try and get me to be a reliable voter for your party?

It is rather ironic that an avatar for a party that is supposed to be about "democratic" processes is advocating for an individual to eschew voting because said person isn't a huge fan of their candidate.

You're right, I don't know how you vote downballot. Maybe it would've been more reasonable to suggest leaving President blank while voting downballot.

I also never implied you should eschew voting because it isn't in favor of my candidate - I implied that third party votes are a waste of time. If you don't like Donald Trump or Joe Biden AND you recognize that they are the only candidates that have any chance of winning the race, then you only need to dislike Donald Trump less than Joe Biden or dislike Joe Biden less than Donald Trump in order to make a decision.

With the American electoral system, rational voting is always about minimizing the odds of victory for the worst possible outcome.

If you believe in pushing different voting systems that don't converge into two party systems and/or prevent votes from being wasted, then I'm on board. As of now, voting for third parties generally accomplishes nothing for enacting change through democracy (the purpose of voting, presumably) - it either has the same effect as not voting or - in cases like GA-SEN 2020, can actually flip elections.

The only reason that there is a 2 party system is due to the thought process that you entertain.  Literally everyone complains about there only being two choices. As soon as more people start considering other choices, partisans start complaining that it automatically helping the greater evil.... maybe... just maybe... if people were willing to no longer get caught in this faulty line of thinking, we could end up with a different system or different parties. This does not even take into account that if 10% of the voting public would go third party, one of the two parties would be inclined to reach out to those voters and include their needs/wants into the party line.

A year out from the presidential election, the third parties check more of my boxes than Joe Biden. That could change, but I'm just being honest for this moment in time. Alot, if not most, young people I know feel this way..... maybe they make their way back to bidens camp.... maybe not.... that's on the Biden campaign to make happen.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't even know why I'm acting like joe bidens strongest soldier atm. sh**t, I wrote in my uncle in 2012, my father in law in 2016, and the only reason I voted for Biden in 2020 was because I thought my wife voted for Trump and I wanted our votes to cancel out lol. I'm up in the air for 2024. Cornel west is most like me politically,  but rfk is a climate guy so I could go either way. I'm only slightly more likely to vote for Biden versus Trump and the only way I would ever vote for Trump was if he was running against hitler.

That all being said, anecdotally, trumps lead everywhere makes little sense to me. I don't wear my politics on my sleeve, and based off my looks, most assume I'm a Maga guy so people of all stripes freely give me their political opinions with me giving little in return. All I keep hearing is how people just plain aren't gonna vote for president if those are the top 2 choices or they are voting 3rd party. I live in an 80 r/ 20 d County so the anecdotes are heavily skewed one way.

I just don't trust polling atm because it doesn't reflect a reality I see..... if the primary polls were more competitive, I could understand the toplines of the general... dems being unhappy with the candidate and showing the party through the primary.... but a whole sale switch after almost every real life election shows otherwise... nah... you all be tripping.

Another tasty anecdote. I work 3 jobs and have since 2017. I have an office job in the construction industry, run a small service based company, and farm a little on the side. Average about 60-75 hrs per week. Other than 2021 in the construction job; bidens presidency has been hands down better for me economically. Not even close honestly. Even my boss, the type who wears a large cross necklace at all times, admits this frequently. He's still absolutely voting Trump but he admits it. The farming industry in our area is absolutely going gang busters right now.... the amount of growth is not something I have seen in my lifetime.

Lastly, I am sick and tired of hearing about the upcoming recession/depression. I have heard from a coworker almost everyday since November 2020 about how the depression is coming, the depression is coming.... it's been 3 years now.... I guess this will be the most anticipated economic depression of all time...don't get me wrong, a depression or recession will surely happen again; they are a staple of capitalism, and one is always right around the corner but this to the point ofincessant mental masturbation calling for a recession all the time.

Might as well not vote if you're going to vote third party. Same effect, less effort.

Awesome response... super original and well thought out.

It doesn't have to be original to be accurate. The same applies to people who voted Libertarian in KY-GOV 2019 or GA-SEN in 2020. GA-SEN is actually an interesting case because voting for a third party was actively worse than not voting, given that it forced a runoff that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

GA-SEN 2020 was going to be run-off regardless thanks to Doug Collins who was [checks notes], still Republican.

Collins ran in the Warnock race. He’s talking about Ossoff’s race which was a one-on-one with Perdue.

[pantsaregood]

GA-SEN 2020 was going to be run-off regardless thanks to Doug Collins who was [checks notes], still Republican.

David Perdue would've had a majority if Shane Hazel hadn't been involved. There would've been no majority. If there are only two candidates, the only possible outcomes are a tie or one of the candidates achieving a majority. Jon Ossoff is a Senator precisely because Shane Hazel kept David Perdue under 50%. Doug Collins was not involved in this race.

But is it though? You have no idea how I vote down ballot, or my voting tendencies. Instead of telling me not to vot, wouldn't it make more sense to try and get me to be a reliable voter for your party?

It is rather ironic that an avatar for a party that is supposed to be about "democratic" processes is advocating for an individual to eschew voting because said person isn't a huge fan of their candidate.

You're right, I don't know how you vote downballot. Maybe it would've been more reasonable to suggest leaving President blank while voting downballot.

I also never implied you should eschew voting because it isn't in favor of my candidate - I implied that third party votes are a waste of time. If you don't like Donald Trump or Joe Biden AND you recognize that they are the only candidates that have any chance of winning the race, then you only need to dislike Donald Trump less than Joe Biden or dislike Joe Biden less than Donald Trump in order to make a decision.

With the American electoral system, rational voting is always about minimizing the odds of victory for the worst possible outcome.

If you believe in pushing different voting systems that don't converge into two party systems and/or prevent votes from being wasted, then I'm on board. As of now, voting for third parties generally accomplishes nothing for enacting change through democracy (the purpose of voting, presumably) - it either has the same effect as not voting or - in cases like GA-SEN 2020, can actually flip elections.

The only reason that there is a 2 party system is due to the thought process that you entertain.  Literally everyone complains about there only being two choices. As soon as more people start considering other choices, partisans start complaining that it automatically helping the greater evil.... maybe... just maybe... if people were willing to no longer get caught in this faulty line of thinking, we could end up with a different system or different parties. This does not even take into account that if 10% of the voting public would go third party, one of the two parties would be inclined to reach out to those voters and include their needs/wants into the party line.

A year out from the presidential election, the third parties check more of my boxes than Joe Biden. That could change, but I'm just being honest for this moment in time. Alot, if not most, young people I know feel this way..... maybe they make their way back to bidens camp.... maybe not.... that's on the Biden campaign to make happen.

There's a two party system because of first past the post, not because of my thought process. First past the post very effectively causes herding into two parties. I don't like it and I absolutely support exploring other voting methods, but this is the reality of how our (excluding some states and municipalities) specific voting system works.

As of now, if one of the major parties began collapsing, another second party would pretty quickly show up to take its place - we actually saw this happen with Whigs and Republicans in the past.

As soon as more people start considering other choices, partisans start complaining that it automatically helping the greater evil....

That's because it is objectively true. During the GA-SEN race in 2020, David Perdue and Shane Hazel were significantly aligned on policy - let's say that they had 80% alignment. This election also involved Jon Ossoff.

David Perdue won 49.73% of the vote, Jon Ossoff won 47.95% of the vote, and Shane Hazel won the remaining 2.32% of the vote. This means that if the individuals who voted for Shane Hazel simply hadn't voted, David Perdue would've won with 50.91% of the vote. Their action of voting for a third party was unambiguously responsible for the race going to a runoff and electing Jon Ossoff. By "voting their conscience" instead of voting rationally, they elected someone who was not at all aligned with them ideologically instead of someone who was mostly aligned with them.

[Galeel]

I don't even know why I'm acting like joe bidens strongest soldier atm. sh**t, I wrote in my uncle in 2012, my father in law in 2016, and the only reason I voted for Biden in 2020 was because I thought my wife voted for Trump and I wanted our votes to cancel out lol. I'm up in the air for 2024. Cornel west is most like me politically,  but rfk is a climate guy so I could go either way. I'm only slightly more likely to vote for Biden versus Trump and the only way I would ever vote for Trump was if he was running against hitler.

That all being said, anecdotally, trumps lead everywhere makes little sense to me. I don't wear my politics on my sleeve, and based off my looks, most assume I'm a Maga guy so people of all stripes freely give me their political opinions with me giving little in return. All I keep hearing is how people just plain aren't gonna vote for president if those are the top 2 choices or they are voting 3rd party. I live in an 80 r/ 20 d County so the anecdotes are heavily skewed one way.

I just don't trust polling atm because it doesn't reflect a reality I see..... if the primary polls were more competitive, I could understand the toplines of the general... dems being unhappy with the candidate and showing the party through the primary.... but a whole sale switch after almost every real life election shows otherwise... nah... you all be tripping.

Another tasty anecdote. I work 3 jobs and have since 2017. I have an office job in the construction industry, run a small service based company, and farm a little on the side. Average about 60-75 hrs per week. Other than 2021 in the construction job; bidens presidency has been hands down better for me economically. Not even close honestly. Even my boss, the type who wears a large cross necklace at all times, admits this frequently. He's still absolutely voting Trump but he admits it. The farming industry in our area is absolutely going gang busters right now.... the amount of growth is not something I have seen in my lifetime.

Lastly, I am sick and tired of hearing about the upcoming recession/depression. I have heard from a coworker almost everyday since November 2020 about how the depression is coming, the depression is coming.... it's been 3 years now.... I guess this will be the most anticipated economic depression of all time...don't get me wrong, a depression or recession will surely happen again; they are a staple of capitalism, and one is always right around the corner but this to the point ofincessant mental masturbation calling for a recession all the time.

Might as well not vote if you're going to vote third party. Same effect, less effort.

You might as well stay home too by that logic because there's about a 0% chance that a single vote in Colorado will swing the election. People vote for other reasons as well.

[Mr. Smith]

I don't even know why I'm acting like joe bidens strongest soldier atm. sh**t, I wrote in my uncle in 2012, my father in law in 2016, and the only reason I voted for Biden in 2020 was because I thought my wife voted for Trump and I wanted our votes to cancel out lol. I'm up in the air for 2024. Cornel west is most like me politically,  but rfk is a climate guy so I could go either way. I'm only slightly more likely to vote for Biden versus Trump and the only way I would ever vote for Trump was if he was running against hitler.

That all being said, anecdotally, trumps lead everywhere makes little sense to me. I don't wear my politics on my sleeve, and based off my looks, most assume I'm a Maga guy so people of all stripes freely give me their political opinions with me giving little in return. All I keep hearing is how people just plain aren't gonna vote for president if those are the top 2 choices or they are voting 3rd party. I live in an 80 r/ 20 d County so the anecdotes are heavily skewed one way.

I just don't trust polling atm because it doesn't reflect a reality I see..... if the primary polls were more competitive, I could understand the toplines of the general... dems being unhappy with the candidate and showing the party through the primary.... but a whole sale switch after almost every real life election shows otherwise... nah... you all be tripping.

Another tasty anecdote. I work 3 jobs and have since 2017. I have an office job in the construction industry, run a small service based company, and farm a little on the side. Average about 60-75 hrs per week. Other than 2021 in the construction job; bidens presidency has been hands down better for me economically. Not even close honestly. Even my boss, the type who wears a large cross necklace at all times, admits this frequently. He's still absolutely voting Trump but he admits it. The farming industry in our area is absolutely going gang busters right now.... the amount of growth is not something I have seen in my lifetime.

Lastly, I am sick and tired of hearing about the upcoming recession/depression. I have heard from a coworker almost everyday since November 2020 about how the depression is coming, the depression is coming.... it's been 3 years now.... I guess this will be the most anticipated economic depression of all time...don't get me wrong, a depression or recession will surely happen again; they are a staple of capitalism, and one is always right around the corner but this to the point ofincessant mental masturbation calling for a recession all the time.

Might as well not vote if you're going to vote third party. Same effect, less effort.

Awesome response... super original and well thought out.

It doesn't have to be original to be accurate. The same applies to people who voted Libertarian in KY-GOV 2019 or GA-SEN in 2020. GA-SEN is actually an interesting case because voting for a third party was actively worse than not voting, given that it forced a runoff that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

GA-SEN 2020 was going to be run-off regardless thanks to Doug Collins who was [checks notes], still Republican.

Collins ran in the Warnock race. He’s talking about Ossoff’s race which was a one-on-one with Perdue.

The fact is, both races went to run-off, both determined the outcome. And a 3rd party in that race wasn't going to make a lick of difference with Doug Collins still there to take votes from Kelly Loeffler, and they were in the same party.

If you eliminate 3rds, Doug Collins is still there to pull down Loeffler and keep Warnock above and the other Democrats like Matt Lieberman still tug on Warnock's lead.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't even know why I'm acting like joe bidens strongest soldier atm. sh**t, I wrote in my uncle in 2012, my father in law in 2016, and the only reason I voted for Biden in 2020 was because I thought my wife voted for Trump and I wanted our votes to cancel out lol. I'm up in the air for 2024. Cornel west is most like me politically,  but rfk is a climate guy so I could go either way. I'm only slightly more likely to vote for Biden versus Trump and the only way I would ever vote for Trump was if he was running against hitler.

That all being said, anecdotally, trumps lead everywhere makes little sense to me. I don't wear my politics on my sleeve, and based off my looks, most assume I'm a Maga guy so people of all stripes freely give me their political opinions with me giving little in return. All I keep hearing is how people just plain aren't gonna vote for president if those are the top 2 choices or they are voting 3rd party. I live in an 80 r/ 20 d County so the anecdotes are heavily skewed one way.

I just don't trust polling atm because it doesn't reflect a reality I see..... if the primary polls were more competitive, I could understand the toplines of the general... dems being unhappy with the candidate and showing the party through the primary.... but a whole sale switch after almost every real life election shows otherwise... nah... you all be tripping.

Another tasty anecdote. I work 3 jobs and have since 2017. I have an office job in the construction industry, run a small service based company, and farm a little on the side. Average about 60-75 hrs per week. Other than 2021 in the construction job; bidens presidency has been hands down better for me economically. Not even close honestly. Even my boss, the type who wears a large cross necklace at all times, admits this frequently. He's still absolutely voting Trump but he admits it. The farming industry in our area is absolutely going gang busters right now.... the amount of growth is not something I have seen in my lifetime.

Lastly, I am sick and tired of hearing about the upcoming recession/depression. I have heard from a coworker almost everyday since November 2020 about how the depression is coming, the depression is coming.... it's been 3 years now.... I guess this will be the most anticipated economic depression of all time...don't get me wrong, a depression or recession will surely happen again; they are a staple of capitalism, and one is always right around the corner but this to the point ofincessant mental masturbation calling for a recession all the time.

Might as well not vote if you're going to vote third party. Same effect, less effort.

Awesome response... super original and well thought out.

It doesn't have to be original to be accurate. The same applies to people who voted Libertarian in KY-GOV 2019 or GA-SEN in 2020. GA-SEN is actually an interesting case because voting for a third party was actively worse than not voting, given that it forced a runoff that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

GA-SEN 2020 was going to be run-off regardless thanks to Doug Collins who was [checks notes], still Republican.

Collins ran in the Warnock race. He’s talking about Ossoff’s race which was a one-on-one with Perdue.

The fact is, both races went to run-off, both determined the outcome. And a 3rd party in that race wasn't going to make a lick of difference with Doug Collins still there to take votes from Kelly Loeffler, and they were in the same party.

If you eliminate 3rds, Doug Collins is still there to pull down Loeffler and keep Warnock above and the other Democrats like Matt Lieberman still tug on Warnock's lead.

Warnock would not have been able to win outright because Republicans won a plurality in the first round. And even if Collins wasn’t there the combined Republican vote was under 50%.

Meanwhile the regularly scheduled race was a head to head Perdue vs. Ossoff match-up.

[pantsaregood]

I don't even know why I'm acting like joe bidens strongest soldier atm. sh**t, I wrote in my uncle in 2012, my father in law in 2016, and the only reason I voted for Biden in 2020 was because I thought my wife voted for Trump and I wanted our votes to cancel out lol. I'm up in the air for 2024. Cornel west is most like me politically,  but rfk is a climate guy so I could go either way. I'm only slightly more likely to vote for Biden versus Trump and the only way I would ever vote for Trump was if he was running against hitler.

That all being said, anecdotally, trumps lead everywhere makes little sense to me. I don't wear my politics on my sleeve, and based off my looks, most assume I'm a Maga guy so people of all stripes freely give me their political opinions with me giving little in return. All I keep hearing is how people just plain aren't gonna vote for president if those are the top 2 choices or they are voting 3rd party. I live in an 80 r/ 20 d County so the anecdotes are heavily skewed one way.

I just don't trust polling atm because it doesn't reflect a reality I see..... if the primary polls were more competitive, I could understand the toplines of the general... dems being unhappy with the candidate and showing the party through the primary.... but a whole sale switch after almost every real life election shows otherwise... nah... you all be tripping.

Another tasty anecdote. I work 3 jobs and have since 2017. I have an office job in the construction industry, run a small service based company, and farm a little on the side. Average about 60-75 hrs per week. Other than 2021 in the construction job; bidens presidency has been hands down better for me economically. Not even close honestly. Even my boss, the type who wears a large cross necklace at all times, admits this frequently. He's still absolutely voting Trump but he admits it. The farming industry in our area is absolutely going gang busters right now.... the amount of growth is not something I have seen in my lifetime.

Lastly, I am sick and tired of hearing about the upcoming recession/depression. I have heard from a coworker almost everyday since November 2020 about how the depression is coming, the depression is coming.... it's been 3 years now.... I guess this will be the most anticipated economic depression of all time...don't get me wrong, a depression or recession will surely happen again; they are a staple of capitalism, and one is always right around the corner but this to the point ofincessant mental masturbation calling for a recession all the time.

Might as well not vote if you're going to vote third party. Same effect, less effort.

Awesome response... super original and well thought out.

It doesn't have to be original to be accurate. The same applies to people who voted Libertarian in KY-GOV 2019 or GA-SEN in 2020. GA-SEN is actually an interesting case because voting for a third party was actively worse than not voting, given that it forced a runoff that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

GA-SEN 2020 was going to be run-off regardless thanks to Doug Collins who was [checks notes], still Republican.

Collins ran in the Warnock race. He’s talking about Ossoff’s race which was a one-on-one with Perdue.

The fact is, both races went to run-off, both determined the outcome. And a 3rd party in that race wasn't going to make a lick of difference with Doug Collins still there to take votes from Kelly Loeffler, and they were in the same party.

If you eliminate 3rds, Doug Collins is still there to pull down Loeffler and keep Warnock above and the other Democrats like Matt Lieberman still tug on Warnock's lead.

Warnock would not have been able to win outright because Republicans won a plurality in the first round. And even if Collins wasn’t there the combined Republican vote was under 50%.

Meanwhile the regularly scheduled race was a head to head Perdue vs. Ossoff match-up.

The point I'm getting at is that there would've never been a Perdue vs. Ossoff head to head match-up if people hadn't voted for Shane Hazel. Perdue wouldn't have even needed to convert Hazel's votes, he just needed them to not happen. This is probably the single most unambiguous incident of an election being spoiled in recent history. People voting for Hazel directly resulted in the runoff that ultimately elected Ossoff.

You might as well stay home too by that logic because there's about a 0% chance that a single vote in Colorado will swing the election. People vote for other reasons as well.

My vote in Colorado is a near but nonzero reduction in the odds of Donald Trump winning Colorado. A vote for a third party is a zero reduction in the odds of Trump winning Colorado. That said, if that nonzero effect my vote has on the election actually matters in the case of Colorado, Trump already handily won the election nationally. This is a small detail and the point you're making is overall correct. Also, technically I do stay home. Our ballots are all mail in.

What other reasons could someone possibly vote for? The entire purpose of the vote is to affect outcomes. Voting for a third party in a first past the post election doesn't do anything except lower the chances of stopping the worst possible outcome.

If you're given a candidate you agree with on 0% of issues with a 50% chance of winning an election, a candidate you agree with on 5% of issues with a 50% chance of winning an election, and a candidate you agree with on 100% of issues with a 0% chance of winning an election, the obvious choice is the candidate you agree with on 5% of issues.

[MT Treasurer]

My theory:

1.) Trump's support in national polls is currently inflated less because of polling issues and more because a lot of Democrats/D-leaners will obviously come home like they always do, making it a closer race in the end — even if not necessarily "close enough" for Biden.

2.) The 'pundit/Atlas demographic' (heavily white, college-ed, more affluent, liberal) is in an even worse position to pick up on a Trump surge than in 2016 because it is particularly strong among non-white working-/middle-class voters this cycle, whereas it was mostly limited to white voters in 2016.

3.) Obama-era narratives about high turnout benefiting Democrats (often in the context of partisan "demographics is destiny" or "voter suppression" discourses) have been disproven — there is no inherent high-turnout advantage for Democrats, and it’s not a coincidence that since 2016, Democrats have consistently fared well in most lower-tunout elections and generally worse the higher the turnout.

4.) While Trump is a very flawed candidate, he still has more appeal to a large portion of the electorate than the Republican Party, whose leaders are desperate to prevent the party's obvious shift away from Reaganism to Buchananism and a more working-class-oriented, isolationist, and anti-'globalist' message. The former remains unappealing even to a lot of voters who Trump gained in 2016 and 2020; hence another reason (besides "lower turnout") for the Republican failure to replicate or expand Trump's gains with those demographics in 2022. Trump at least has the right direction and the image of a strong leader, offering some sense of certainty to people.

5.) "Trumpism without Trump" matched against "independent local Democratic leader" who keeps his distance from Biden on the campaign trail has now worked to the Democrats' advantage since 2022, but it has made people forget just how unpopular Biden actually is. Democrats knew how to handle Biden when he wasn’t on the ballot (running as their "own men"), whereas Republicans mostly didn’t know how to handle Trump, in large part because of Trump's grip on the base, which is desperate for actual leaders and sees no leaders in the national GOP. Those Republicans who did in fact run as their "own men" (Youngkin, GOP governors in 2022) fared very well, even when they were attacked on abortion.

6.) Biden retiring wouldn’t "guarantee" a Democratic victory, but the fact of the matter is that Biden is currently the face of everything wrong in the country and in politics — weak leadership (a problem seriously exacerbated by his age), out-of-touch politicians who don’t see how their policies are hurting people who have to work for rent, wrong priorities that don’t change the status quo, politicians who have been in D.C. for half a century, etc.

Biden is not a leader/strongman and he has no movement — usually, those candidates (Carter, H. W. Bush, Dole, Romney, etc.) can only win in unusually favorable circumstances and don’t last very long, and they virtually never beat candidates who have both the strongman image and a movement. 2020 was somewhat of an exception to this, but there is a reason why Biden underperformed so noticeably that year, and it’s something few people want to talk about because they’re so focused on the binary outcome ("he won", therefore he was a good candidate — same mistake people made with Trump in 2016). The problem for Biden is that unlike in 2020, his favorability numbers are now hardly too different from Trump's and he’s seen as weaker and more partisan than in 2020. He also has no margin for error because his 2020 win was so narrow in the first place and depended on overperformances in R-trending parts of the country. Notice how much of this also applied to Jimmy Carter?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

4.) While Trump is a very flawed candidate, he still has more appeal to a large portion of the electorate than the Republican Party, whose leaders are desperate to prevent the party's obvious shift away from Reaganism to Buchananism and a more working-class-oriented, isolationist, and anti-'globalist' message. The former remains unappealing even to a lot of voters who Trump gained in 2016 and 2020; hence another reason (besides "lower turnout") for the Republican failure to replicate or expand Trump's gains with those demographics in 2022. Trump at least has the right direction and the image of a strong leader, offering some sense of certainty to people.

The irony is that Trump once called Pat Buchanan a "Hitler lover".

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one cares about Trump leads in the polls a yr left in campaign

[Tekken_Guy]

My theory:

1.) Trump's support in national polls is currently inflated less because of polling issues and more because a lot of Democrats/D-leaners will obviously come home like they always do, making it a closer race in the end — even if not necessarily "close enough" for Biden.

2.) The 'pundit/Atlas demographic' (heavily white, college-ed, more affluent, liberal) is in an even worse position to pick up on a Trump surge than in 2016 because it is particularly strong among non-white working-/middle-class voters this cycle, whereas it was mostly limited to white voters in 2016.

3.) Obama-era narratives about high turnout benefiting Democrats (often in the context of partisan "demographics is destiny" or "voter suppression" discourses) have been disproven — there is no inherent high-turnout advantage for Democrats, and it’s not a coincidence that since 2016, Democrats have consistently fared well in most lower-tunout elections and generally worse the higher the turnout.

4.) While Trump is a very flawed candidate, he still has more appeal to a large portion of the electorate than the Republican Party, whose leaders are desperate to prevent the party's obvious shift away from Reaganism to Buchananism and a more working-class-oriented, isolationist, and anti-'globalist' message. The former remains unappealing even to a lot of voters who Trump gained in 2016 and 2020; hence another reason (besides "lower turnout") for the Republican failure to replicate or expand Trump's gains with those demographics in 2022. Trump at least has the right direction and the image of a strong leader, offering some sense of certainty to people.

5.) "Trumpism without Trump" matched against "independent local Democratic leader" who keeps his distance from Biden on the campaign trail has now worked to the Democrats' advantage since 2022, but it has made people forget just how unpopular Biden actually is. Democrats knew how to handle Biden when he wasn’t on the ballot (running as their "own men"), whereas Republicans mostly didn’t know how to handle Trump, in large part because of Trump's grip on the base, which is desperate for actual leaders and sees no leaders in the national GOP. Those Republicans who did in fact run as their "own men" (Youngkin, GOP governors in 2022) fared very well, even when they were attacked on abortion.

6.) Biden retiring wouldn’t "guarantee" a Democratic victory, but the fact of the matter is that Biden is currently the face of everything wrong in the country and in politics — weak leadership (a problem seriously exacerbated by his age), out-of-touch politicians who don’t see how their policies are hurting people who have to work for rent, wrong priorities that don’t change the status quo, politicians who have been in D.C. for half a century, etc.

Biden is not a leader/strongman and he has no movement — usually, those candidates (Carter, H. W. Bush, Dole, Romney, etc.) can only win in unusually favorable circumstances and don’t last very long, and they virtually never beat candidates who have both the strongman image and a movement. 2020 was somewhat of an exception to this, but there is a reason why Biden underperformed so noticeably that year, and it’s something few people want to talk about because they’re so focused on the binary outcome ("he won", therefore he was a good candidate — same mistake people made with Trump in 2016). The problem for Biden is that unlike in 2020, his favorability numbers are now hardly too different from Trump's and he’s seen as weaker and more partisan than in 2020. He also has no margin for error because his 2020 win was so narrow in the first place and depended on overperformances in R-trending parts of the country. Notice how much of this also applied to Jimmy Carter?

So what you’re saying that Biden’s 2020 win was a fluke the way Trump’s 2016 one was not?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My theory:

1.) Trump's support in national polls is currently inflated less because of polling issues and more because a lot of Democrats/D-leaners will obviously come home like they always do, making it a closer race in the end — even if not necessarily "close enough" for Biden.

2.) The 'pundit/Atlas demographic' (heavily white, college-ed, more affluent, liberal) is in an even worse position to pick up on a Trump surge than in 2016 because it is particularly strong among non-white working-/middle-class voters this cycle, whereas it was mostly limited to white voters in 2016.

3.) Obama-era narratives about high turnout benefiting Democrats (often in the context of partisan "demographics is destiny" or "voter suppression" discourses) have been disproven — there is no inherent high-turnout advantage for Democrats, and it’s not a coincidence that since 2016, Democrats have consistently fared well in most lower-tunout elections and generally worse the higher the turnout.

4.) While Trump is a very flawed candidate, he still has more appeal to a large portion of the electorate than the Republican Party, whose leaders are desperate to prevent the party's obvious shift away from Reaganism to Buchananism and a more working-class-oriented, isolationist, and anti-'globalist' message. The former remains unappealing even to a lot of voters who Trump gained in 2016 and 2020; hence another reason (besides "lower turnout") for the Republican failure to replicate or expand Trump's gains with those demographics in 2022. Trump at least has the right direction and the image of a strong leader, offering some sense of certainty to people.

5.) "Trumpism without Trump" matched against "independent local Democratic leader" who keeps his distance from Biden on the campaign trail has now worked to the Democrats' advantage since 2022, but it has made people forget just how unpopular Biden actually is. Democrats knew how to handle Biden when he wasn’t on the ballot (running as their "own men"), whereas Republicans mostly didn’t know how to handle Trump, in large part because of Trump's grip on the base, which is desperate for actual leaders and sees no leaders in the national GOP. Those Republicans who did in fact run as their "own men" (Youngkin, GOP governors in 2022) fared very well, even when they were attacked on abortion.

6.) Biden retiring wouldn’t "guarantee" a Democratic victory, but the fact of the matter is that Biden is currently the face of everything wrong in the country and in politics — weak leadership (a problem seriously exacerbated by his age), out-of-touch politicians who don’t see how their policies are hurting people who have to work for rent, wrong priorities that don’t change the status quo, politicians who have been in D.C. for half a century, etc.

Biden is not a leader/strongman and he has no movement — usually, those candidates (Carter, H. W. Bush, Dole, Romney, etc.) can only win in unusually favorable circumstances and don’t last very long, and they virtually never beat candidates who have both the strongman image and a movement. 2020 was somewhat of an exception to this, but there is a reason why Biden underperformed so noticeably that year, and it’s something few people want to talk about because they’re so focused on the binary outcome ("he won", therefore he was a good candidate — same mistake people made with Trump in 2016). The problem for Biden is that unlike in 2020, his favorability numbers are now hardly too different from Trump's and he’s seen as weaker and more partisan than in 2020. He also has no margin for error because his 2020 win was so narrow in the first place and depended on overperformances in R-trending parts of the country. Notice how much of this also applied to Jimmy Carter?

So what you’re saying that Biden’s 2020 win was a fluke the way Trump’s 2016 one was not?

Rs think like MT TREASURE that we voted and Biden is all packed and set to leave office in 25 and it's a yr left it's very amusing