Most electable democrat
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  Most electable democrat
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Poll
Question: Which democrat is the most likely to win against trump? (of those confirmed to make it into the next debate)
#1
Joe Biden
 
#2
Bernie Sanders
 
#3
Elizabeth Warren
 
#4
Pete Buttigieg
 
#5
Amy Klobuchar
 
#6
Tom Steyer
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 99

Author Topic: Most electable democrat  (Read 2372 times)
Queen Isuelt
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« Reply #25 on: December 09, 2019, 03:03:54 PM »

Sanders by a mile.  Ask any Republican.

I’m a republican in Michigan that will vote Trump unless Klobuchar is the nominee.

Sanders voters don’t understand two things
1) union workers with great healthcare will never give it up bad in states like Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
2) sanders support with older voters is non existent meaning he can’t compete in Arizona and Florida.

Big difference going from 14m votes to 70m.

Most electable Democrat is Amy Klobuchar she can win Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and will be strong for all democrats down ballot. She will expand the map and will give Democrats a great chance in the senate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #26 on: December 09, 2019, 03:23:13 PM »

Biden isnt the most electable,  he just has the most delegates support, we see it in his weakness to Trump is the Firehose polls. Delegates that came out for Biden were already pocketed
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #27 on: December 09, 2019, 03:34:01 PM »

Joe Biden, because he has appeal to Blue and White Collar workers, African Americans and Latinos. He would also do well in the Suburbs, which where key in flipping the House in 2018. Joe Biden is a good fit for the Rust- and Sun Belt, what gives him a much wider path to the presidency and the biggest chance to help Democrats win the senate.

This. Biden has definitely the greatest overall appeal.
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Illini Moderate
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« Reply #28 on: December 09, 2019, 04:40:42 PM »

Honestly it’s kind of depressing to see Buttigieg constantly ranked so low when it’s obvious it’s for one reason and one reason only.

Because he keeps changing his health care plan. First he says he wants a UK like system, and then wanted bernie's plan, and now wants essentially a public option.


He’s always said that Medicare for all is his end goal. He never released a detailed policy proposal until the current one. Plus if that were the only reason then every candidate in the race, Bernie included, would be considered to have changed their healthcare plan and thus on a level playing field in that respect
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adamevans
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« Reply #29 on: December 09, 2019, 05:04:36 PM »

Who the f**k voted Pete?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #30 on: December 09, 2019, 06:31:02 PM »

AOTA...except Biden.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #31 on: December 09, 2019, 07:09:35 PM »

I have absolutely no idea. And that's all I care about so it's also why I don't know who to support in the primary.
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dw93
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« Reply #32 on: December 09, 2019, 07:14:13 PM »

I'm not counting Klobuchar and Steyer as I don't think either will be nominated. That leaves Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Pete. Of the four:

Biden, Sanders, and Warren have a 50/50 shot. I can make as good a case for them as I can against them.

Pete would lose to Trump. He has no minority appeal, and I do unfortunately believe that there are enough in this country, even in the Democratic party with older Black and Latino voters, that wouldn't elect a gay man. Plus there's his lack of experience compared to the rest of the field.
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Gracile
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« Reply #33 on: December 09, 2019, 07:54:05 PM »

No candidate is the most “electable” because the entire concept of electability is based on meaningless presuppositions about one’s appeal that don’t hold up when all the votes are counted, and one candidate’s individual strengths matter far less in the minds of voters than voters’ perceptions of the party as a whole.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #34 on: December 09, 2019, 09:53:06 PM »

Biden, if he runs a good campaign. Biden is pretty much the only current candidate who has a realistic shot at getting all plausible anti-Trump voters to turn out and vote for him in large numbers.

Personally, I prefer Warren and like Sanders, but either of them would be operating with a bit of a handicap that is unlikely to be mitigated by even a superb campaign. (For Warren, it's sexists who won't vote for a woman, ever. For Bernie it's people who won't vote for a socialist, ever.) Being gay will hurt Buttigieg about the same amount, but his lack of experience will hurt his numbers at least that hard again. I think all plausible Democratic nominees can win. (Mr. Trump is the worst candidate in living memory, sinking even below his own 2016 campaign.) But Biden has the potential for the largest margin of victory, so if he runs well (which is by no means guaranteed) Biden will win in circumstances where his rivals would lose, even with note-perfect campaigns.

As to whether or not that makes him the best nominee... well, I fear the chances of him running a below-average campaign or otherwise blowing the race are pretty high, much higher than the other candidates. Also, if Mr. Trump is not the Republican nominee (and I don't think he will be), then the whole field changes and this all goes out the window.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #35 on: December 09, 2019, 10:01:25 PM »

Biden isnt the most electable,  Bernie will beat him in IA and NH and then take NV and Cali. At least Bernie will be able to stay in race and win some Western states and extend the primary and be in it to win NY, IL and MI
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #36 on: December 10, 2019, 12:10:30 AM »

1. Joe Biden
2. Amy Klobuchar
3. Bernie Sanders
4. Elizabeth Warren
5. Pete Buttigieg
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #37 on: December 10, 2019, 12:33:11 AM »

Warren seems to me to have the best combination of political positions that resonate with a large voting contingent, personal story, and media-friendly charisma out of all of the Democratic candidates.  Bernie has probably the most faithful supporters, but much of that support is from fringe groups and unlikely to spread very wide. Biden has the opposite problem where he lacks energy and enthusiasm even though he is generally well-liked. Pete has a lot going for him but is fairly green. I'd mark him as a wildcard, but I think Warren is the most complete package the Democrats are offering this far. We will have to see what Decal Patrick does...probably nothing.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #38 on: December 10, 2019, 12:40:06 AM »

Question, would the people who voted for Klobuchar be insisting Tim Pawlenty was the most electable Republican Presidential candidate in the 2012 cycle? Yes, they were both elected in purple states but it also looks like that the electorate don't seem them as Presidential material even if they are fine with them holding statewide office.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #39 on: December 10, 2019, 12:55:52 AM »

Question, would the people who voted for Klobuchar be insisting Tim Pawlenty was the most electable Republican Presidential candidate in the 2012 cycle? Yes, they were both elected in purple states but it also looks like that the electorate don't seem them as Presidential material even if they are fine with them holding statewide office.

I voted Biden in the poll because I was only considering the big four, but Klobuchar is definitely the most electable, and she isn't comparable to Pawlenty apart from them being from the same state. He didn't get a majority of the vote either time, while she's won three landslides and is the only remaining candidate with a proven record of winning over Trump voters, even if she was facing a joke opponent.

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izixs
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« Reply #40 on: December 10, 2019, 12:56:17 AM »

Electability is a lie, a manipulation built to prevent us from seeing the clear truth of how politics actually works. If it was not something people thought about, people would select the candidate that appeals to them well, and that candidate, via virtue of being appealing like that, would in the end win via the actually being really electable because they could convince people to vote for them the best compared to the alternatives.

But... instead we get this second guessing nonsense and insistences that so and so is best for what ever reasons we want to argue for as defining electability. Instead of, you know, people just letting the appeal of the candidates answer the question via the primary election.

Man... I am so done with the term electability. There's a reason I did a youtube video about how its nonsense. And will do so again before the year is up.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #41 on: December 10, 2019, 01:46:53 AM »

1. Nobody actually knows and the question ends up being a Rorschach test that people project their preferences onto. Biden and Klobuchar have the strongest credentials on paper for this title, but praxis is another thing entirely.

2. Democrats can still win even if they don't end up picking whoever truly is "most electable."

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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #42 on: December 10, 2019, 02:06:52 AM »

... Also, if Mr. Trump is not the Republican nominee (and I don't think he will be) ...

Runeghost,
Can you expand on this please.
How is it possible that you believe that trump will not be the Rep 2020 nominee?
In what scenario is this possible?
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Diabolical Materialism
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« Reply #43 on: December 10, 2019, 02:30:05 AM »

It's Bernie b!tch
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #44 on: December 11, 2019, 12:15:26 AM »

... Also, if Mr. Trump is not the Republican nominee (and I don't think he will be) ...

Runeghost,
Can you expand on this please.
How is it possible that you believe that trump will not be the Rep 2020 nominee?
In what scenario is this possible?

See the thread on the increasingly steeper slope of his mental decline. Go watch him slur and twitch his way through a speech at his rally tonight.  While it's possible that the Republicans will nominate him and cart him around on campaign like a popular but failing animatronic prop, I think that the odds his physical and mental deterioration will keep him off the ballot one way or another are very likely (say, over 75%).

Maybe I'm still being too generous to Republicans with when they'll replace him, and maybe I'm flat-out wrong about how poor his condition is and how rapidly his decline is accelerating. But that's what it looks like to me. (Plus Trump resigning or declining to run for reasons of ill-health stands a good chance at letting him personally escape prison, and lets the Republicans both have their cake and eat it too.)
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SN2903
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« Reply #45 on: December 11, 2019, 12:56:00 AM »

Biden but none of them have a chance.
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #46 on: December 11, 2019, 02:03:36 AM »

Voters in this poll are like "Yes, the old guard centrist who voted for the Iraq War lost in 2004 and in 2016, but this time it's a sure deal!"

I'll vote for Biden if he's the nominee, but you guys are falling into the same old trap and learning zero lessons.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #47 on: December 11, 2019, 05:27:36 PM »

We don't really have a good idea. 

Our perceptions of what is electable are skewed by persuasion-related considerations that don't turn out in today's modern politics, and electability is often a self-fulfilling media prophecy.  And any of these five could theoretically beat or lose to Trump. 

That said, I think you have to stick close to the polls:

Most Electable:  Biden/Sanders (I would say Sanders #1 because Biden seems to be losing a step, but I can see the other side of the argument)

More Electable:  Warren (she is underrated)

Electable:  Buttigieg/Klobuchar

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #48 on: December 11, 2019, 05:57:16 PM »

Biden but none of them have a chance.

Not so says the QU poll that has Biden leading Trump by 9 and Biden tied in TX which is more winnable than FL, now
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W
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« Reply #49 on: December 11, 2019, 06:17:35 PM »

sanders by a mile. has the most broad appeal, has great numbers with independents and republicans, won the self described conservative democrat vote last time, and isn't reliant on some concept of mythical swing voters who will magically turn out for some also ran who was picked as obama's vp purely based on politics.
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