TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Nashville and also Memphis should secede from the rest of TN and become 2 new city-states with 2 Senators each. Both would have populations greater than Wyoming, so they are deserving of 2 Senators each IMO.

Don't see a problem here! Why tf are there two Dakotas anyways?

We need to merge the Dakotas, merge Montana, Idaho and Wyoming. We can also chop off the Florida panhandle and give it to Alabama. It would also be smart to give DC and PR statehood and divide California into North and South.

Fun fact: Alabama actually attempted to purchase the Panhandle from Florida in the 1900s.

The "Pork Chop Gang", which was a machine of conservative Democrats ruling the country, was largely based in the Panhandle and Jacksonville areas, so they weren't thrilled about the proposal.

[Virginiá]

Lying Bredesen betrayed by his staff.  Veritable catches his staff saying he just saying he was just saying that he would support Kavanaugh to get elected. He would not actually vote for him.  A staff members says Tennessee voters are ignorant.  One says he hates Trump.  They say he will be a good Democrat, if elected.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/okeefe-strikes-again-video-captures-tn-dem-candidate-phil-bredesen-in-classic-bait-and-switch/

THE HYPOCRITE IS CAUGHT. 

One of the staffers says this is how Doug Jones ran in Alabama.

This is the type of garbage most of you Democrats posting here support.

Bredesen:  What a Despicable Man.  A LIAR THROUGH AND THROUGH. 

Do you actually care about honesty and for that matter, ethics, or is this just something you beat Democrats with? Because this is quite typical of partisans, whether they even know or not. Minimize or flat out deny the obvious failings of their own "team," while holding the opposition to very high standards. I'd give you the benefit of the doubt, but the Republican Party has seen a severe erosion of ethics and morals during the Obama era but especially since Trump ran and took office. It's impossible to believe you are completely oblivious to all of this.

I can go on for hours about a litany of abuses of power Republicans are guilty of in election administration and using their legislative and law enforcement power to suppress votes and in Georgia's case, literally investigate and pin bogus charges on activists and candidates for having the audacity to register voters and/or run for some elections. Not to mention the pretty blatant ethical failures of Trump's cabinet - you know, the people who used to be there but had to quit when the clouds circled above?

Seriously Yankee, come on. Don't post here acting like you're superior or that Democrats are nothing but liar-loving trash.

[Doimper]

"Pork Chop Gang"

a winning new username for any poster from the FL panhandle, imo

[Doimper]

Nashville and also Memphis should secede from the rest of TN and become 2 new city-states with 2 Senators each. Both would have populations greater than Wyoming, so they are deserving of 2 Senators each IMO.

Don't see a problem here! Why tf are there two Dakotas anyways?

We need to merge the Dakotas, merge Montana, Idaho and Wyoming. We can also chop off the Florida panhandle and give it to Alabama. It would also be smart to give DC and PR statehood and divide California into North and South.

Fun fact: Alabama actually attempted to purchase the Panhandle from Florida in the 1900s.

The "Pork Chop Gang", which was a machine of conservative Democrats ruling the country, was largely based in the Panhandle and Jacksonville areas, so they weren't thrilled about the proposal.

Imagine how much more stable the Middle East would be right now had we allowed Alabama to purchase the Panhandle

Twist: Florida selling the Panhandle sets off a flurry of butterflies that ends in thermonuclear war. The Middle East is stable, but only because everyone is dead.

[Blair]

Lol anyone who says ‘Lady Democrat’, and still thinks Roy Moore was framed (a man so odious even Mitch McConell cut him off) is clearly not going to post anything of very high value

[Wisconsin+17]

That post coming from Bliar is rather rich I must say.

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Imagine if he could win his own home state?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Volunteers are fleeing the Bredesen campaign: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/11/bredesen-backlash-kavanaugh-support-894393

I think this race perfectly illustrates the differing effects Kavanaugh has in different states. It's helpful that Manchin supported Kavanaugh, and would have helped Heitkamp had she supported him, because there's no real D base in those states, they are effectively 100% rural. Meanwhile, in TN, supporting Kavanaugh as Bredesen did actually hurts you as a Dem, because your path to victory starts first and foremost with driving up the turnout and margin as high as possible in Memphis and Nashville. Yes, you need to not get totally crushed in the rurals, but it probably doesn't matter if you can't get great numbers out of Memphis and Nashville due to a depressed base. This is also why McCaskill's position is, within a sampling error, effectively unchanged - the path to victory in Missouri comes first and foremost with driving up turnout and margin in Boone, Kansas City, St. Louis County, and St. Louis City, and opposing Kavanaugh helps with that.

[Virginiá]

Volunteers are fleeing the Bredesen campaign: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/11/bredesen-backlash-kavanaugh-support-894393

It was a tough vote, and it would have hurt no matter what position he took. Considering it is TN, I'd think that what he did was probably the least painful position. I still think he should have deflected and avoided committing to either, though.

Also:

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Also:

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Interesting! I sure hope that is true

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Volunteers are fleeing the Bredesen campaign: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/11/bredesen-backlash-kavanaugh-support-894393

It was a tough vote, and it would have hurt no matter what position he took. Considering it is TN, I'd think that what he did was probably the least painful position. I still think he should have deflected and avoided committing to either, though.

Also:

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Also:

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Interesting! I sure hope that is true

Pollsters of both parties have a vested interest in getting internals to show a close race. If the leading party thinks the race is over and starts to get complacent, then the trailing party can sweep in and take the lead. On the other hand, if the trailing party gets too far behind, its leadership and donors may just give up on the race, handing victory to the leading party on a sliver platter.

[2016]

Checkmate. This Race is DONE for Bredesen and he knows it. Republicans somehow can breathe easier.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Pollsters of both parties have a vested interest in getting internals to show a close race. If the leading party thinks the race is over and starts to get complacent, then the trailing party can sweep in and take the lead. On the other hand, if the trailing party gets too far behind, its leadership and donors may just give up on the race, handing victory to the leading party on a sliver platter.

Yeah, that's always what people say in these situations. Take a look at CA-SEN 2010 right about now...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_California,_2010#Polling_2

Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman in California in 2010 ~ "We can still win. It's close, really. You just gotta believe! Ignore the Angus Reid poll that has Fiorina down 55-39 (Oct 6). Here, look at this Tarrance Group Republican internal poll (Oct 17-19) that has the race tied 44-44. And look at this junky Reuters poll (Oct 12-14) that has Fiorina only down 1, 46-45."

Note that "look at this junky reuters poll" is literally what people are saying with respect to TX-SEN, which is a similar case to TN.

The delusion is the same as Republicans still pretending they can win VA-10 (or keep it close), just to keep up appearances and run ads in the DC market so political reporters in the DC media market will see them.

[SCNCmod]

There is still a lot of time in this race.  The positive Kavanaugh effect for Republicans is at its peak- it will only retract from here (the question is how much).  Bredesen has been leading much of the race- if Kavanaugh effect comes back down to earth- this is not over. (especially with Blackburn as the candidate- which many moderates are uncomfortable with... even if they like Kavanaugh).

We may look back in a couple of weeks and see the title of this Thread as prophetic!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

There is still a lot of time in this race.  The positive Kavanaugh effect for Republicans is at its peak- it will only retract from here (the question is how much).  Bredesen has been leading much of the race- if Kavanaugh effect comes back down to earth- this is not over. (especially with Blackburn as the candidate- which many moderates are uncomfortable with... even if they like Kavanaugh).

It was never really a Kavanaugh effect. It is just partisanship and if it is happening now, it was always going to happen eventually, once election day got close, voters started to actually pay attention, and Blackburn's name ID went up outside of her own district. Like Santa Claus, once the magic is lost, it doesn't come back.

[Arkansas Yankee]

There is still a lot of time in this race.  The positive Kavanaugh effect for Republicans is at its peak- it will only retract from here (the question is how much).  Bredesen has been leading much of the race- if Kavanaugh effect comes back down to earth- this is not over. (especially with Blackburn as the candidate- which many moderates are uncomfortable with... even if they like Kavanaugh).

It was never really a Kavanaugh effect. It is just partisanship and if it is happening now, it was always going to happen eventually, once election day got close, voters started to actually pay attention, and Blackburn's name ID went up outside of her own district. Like Santa Claus, once the magic is lost, it doesn't come back.

I think you are whistling by the graveyard. 

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I think you are whistling by the graveyard. 

Could be wrong, but I think it is more a case of "this Blue Dog don't hunt no more."

I don't see a whole lot of difference here as compared to, for example, TN-04 in 2010. Which had nothing to do with Kavanaugh... And everything to do with Partisanship...

Lincoln Davis, the Dem incumbent, was a good ole boy Blue Dog who all the rural folk in middle Tenessee were very happy with... until they weren't...

Here is a funny quote from a newspaper article at the time:

http://archive.knoxnews.com/news/4th-district-house-candidates-get-dirty-television-ads-from-outside-interest-groups-heat-up-davis-d--358412541.html/

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This article is from October 19... Yes, later in October than we are currently...

The final actual margin was not even remotely "somewhere in between." It was an a 57.1% - 38.6% ruralstomping. And he was a good ole boy even up to mid-October!!!

What happened? Partisanship, the same thing that is happening in TN now.

[Roll Roons]

I think you are whistling by the graveyard. 

Could be wrong, but I think it is more a case of "this Blue Dog don't hunt no more."

I don't see a whole lot of difference here as compared to, for example, TN-04 in 2010. Which had nothing to do with Kavanaugh... And everything to do with Partisanship...

Lincoln Davis, the Dem incumbent, was a good ole boy Blue Dog who all the rural folk in middle Tenessee were very happy with... until they weren't...

Here is a funny quote from a newspaper article at the time:

http://archive.knoxnews.com/news/4th-district-house-candidates-get-dirty-television-ads-from-outside-interest-groups-heat-up-davis-d--358412541.html/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This article is from October 19... Yes, later in October than we are currently...

The final actual margin was not even remotely "somewhere in between." It was an a 57.1% - 38.6% ruralstomping. And he was a good ole boy even up to mid-October!!!

What happened? Partisanship, the same thing that is happening in TN now.

To be fair, this happened in 2010.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwV9n_c9eTo

Pathetic, Phil I still want you to win, but pathetic.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwV9n_c9eTo

Pathetic, Phil I still want you to win, but pathetic.

I am continually astounded to learn there are people dumber than James O'Keefe working in politics.

[Tekken_Guy]

With Heidi heading for defeat and Beto’s chances of winning getting slimmer by the day, TN is probably the Dem’s best shot at the 51st seat now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

With Heidi heading for defeat and Beto’s chances of winning getting slimmer by the day, TN is probably the Dem’s best shot at the 51st seat now.

TN isn't happening.

[Roll Roons]

With Heidi heading for defeat and Beto’s chances of winning getting slimmer by the day, TN is probably the Dem’s best shot at the 51st seat now.

TN isn't happening.

Just like how Ron Johnson was DOA, Anthony Brown was going to easily be elected governor, and Mark Warner was totally safe. Blackburn is still favored, but an upset is still very possible.

[henster]

Dems were never winning back the Senate the goal should have always been limiting losses to put them in a decent position for 2020.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Just like how Ron Johnson was DOA, Anthony Brown was going to easily be elected governor, and Mark Warner was totally safe. Blackburn is still favored, but an upset is still very possible.

None of those above examples were running in a Federal race in a state which was heavily partisan towards their party.

Ron Johnson - running in a pretty close to even PVI swing state.

Anthony Brown - was running in a deep blue state, but was running for Governor, not Senate. There is a reason why Maryland elected Michael Steele Lt. Governor, but when Steele tried to run for Senate, he lost by 10 points, and that reason is that it is a very different thing to elect a Governor of the other party in a state where the legislature is always controlled by your party, and to elect someone of the other party to the Senate.

Mark Warner - was running in a pretty close to even PVI swing state. I know people like to make jokes about how VA is safe Dem forever, and will never vote for another Republican again for anything, but it is D+1

In comparison to those, TN is R+14, and has voted consistently Republican in all statewide Federal races for going on decades now. It might, at some point eventually again, under the optimal circumstances, vote for a Dem Governor as a check on the ultra-safe Republican state legislature (although I wouldn't hold my breath too much), but it is not about to vote for a Dem Senator on the Federal level. When it comes down to it, TN would crawl over broken glass and do anything else at all necessary, short (possibly, or possibly not) of pedophilia, in order to vote for a blobfish for Senate, as long as that blobfish had an R next to its name.

...

This is what a blobfish looks like, btw:



It takes a truly perfect storm these days for Dems to win a Senate seat in a state so heavily R, or for Reps to win a Senate seat in a state so heavily D.

[Xing]

With Heidi heading for defeat and Beto’s chances of winning getting slimmer by the day, TN is probably the Dem’s best shot at the 51st seat now.

TN isn't happening.

Just like how Ron Johnson was DOA, Anthony Brown was going to easily be elected governor, and Mark Warner was totally safe. Blackburn is still favored, but an upset is still very possible.

Neither Johnson, Hogan, nor Gillespie were down by double digits, and most of them were gaining in the polls in the final weeks. If polls at the end of October start to show Bredesen catching up again, then we'll talk.

[IceSpear]

There is still a lot of time in this race.  The positive Kavanaugh effect for Republicans is at its peak- it will only retract from here (the question is how much).  Bredesen has been leading much of the race- if Kavanaugh effect comes back down to earth- this is not over. (especially with Blackburn as the candidate- which many moderates are uncomfortable with... even if they like Kavanaugh).

It was never really a Kavanaugh effect. It is just partisanship and if it is happening now, it was always going to happen eventually, once election day got close, voters started to actually pay attention, and Blackburn's name ID went up outside of her own district. Like Santa Claus, once the magic is lost, it doesn't come back.

Yeah, pretty much. Once Tennessee voters started paying attention and remembered Bredesen was a Demoncrat, he was screwed. But I think Kavanaugh made his collapse more severe and quicker than it otherwise would've been.