Well, I don’t ever think Arizona will be like Colorado for this and next decade, but it will be roughly on par with Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Maybe Minnesota.
PA, MI, and NH all seem kind of different, though? MI has clearly had a sustained Democratic bounce-back since Trump was sworn in; NH has a locally very strong GOP even as they do poorly up-ballot; and PA if anything has mostly continued trending right, even if Oz/Mastriano were an unreally bad ticket.
AZ seems like it's continuing to trend left, but it also had a pretty bad GOP ticket and even 2022 showed evidence that the Democratic floor there is pretty low.
