AZ-SEN (Suffolk): Maricopa County - Kelly +1

[wbrocks67]

Maricopa County, AZ (Biden +3, Kelly +4)
Kelly (D) 48%
Masters (R) 47%

Note - 2020 recall here is Biden +1

https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states

[2016]

If Kelly wins Maricopa only by 1 he is TOAST because Blake Masters will almost certainly will with a 100 % degree of confidence do a little bit better than Trump in Pima County.

Kelly won Maricopa County 51.9 to 48.0 in 2020, a raw vote margin of 80,000 Votes.

[SnowLabrador]

This isn't a great poll for Kelly.

[Senator Incitatus]

No doubt this will be a close one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No doubt this will be a close one.

Quite probably. Masters has a chance, though I think the most likely result is Kelly winning by very low single digits.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm pessimistic but hopeful about this race.

[Tekken_Guy]

I saw “AZ-Sen (Suffolk) - Ma….” and clicked.

I’m disappointed

[Person Man]

I saw “AZ-Sen (Suffolk) - Ma….” and clicked.

I’m disappointed

Masters still hasn’t led in a poll. If he wins, polling doesn’t work or at any rate, something is happening and it shouldn’t be happening.

[wbrocks67]

It's a small sample, but it has 18-34 year olds voting for Masters and Hobbs. Weird combo lol

[Tekken_Guy]

I saw “AZ-Sen (Suffolk) - Ma….” and clicked.

I’m disappointed

Masters still hasn’t led in a poll. If he wins, polling doesn’t work or at any rate, something is happening and it shouldn’t be happening.

He lead in Emerson.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I saw “AZ-Sen (Suffolk) - Ma….” and clicked.

I’m disappointed

Masters still hasn’t led in a poll. If he wins, polling doesn’t work or at any rate, something is happening and it shouldn’t be happening.

The "Masters hasn't led in a poll" talking point is ubiquitous, but doesn't really matter.  He's within the margin of error, and polling is not an exact science.  If someone is down by 2 points in the polling average and then they win by 1 point, that is not a systemic polling error.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I saw “AZ-Sen (Suffolk) - Ma….” and clicked.

I’m disappointed

Masters still hasn’t led in a poll. If he wins, polling doesn’t work or at any rate, something is happening and it shouldn’t be happening.

He led ever so slightly in Emerson.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I saw “AZ-Sen (Suffolk) - Ma….” and clicked.

I’m disappointed

Masters still hasn’t led in a poll. If he wins, polling doesn’t work or at any rate, something is happening and it shouldn’t be happening.

The "Masters hasn't led in a poll" talking point is ubiquitous, but doesn't really matter.  He's within the margin of error, and polling is not an exact science.  If someone is down by 2 points in the polling average and then they win by 1 point, that is not a systemic polling error.

Yep.

[wbrocks67]

It seems Democrats actually over performed in all of the county polls that Suffolk did.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If Kelly wins Maricopa only by 1 he is TOAST because Blake Masters will almost certainly will with a 100 % degree of confidence do a little bit better than Trump in Pima County.

Kelly won Maricopa County 51.9 to 48.0 in 2020, a raw vote margin of 80,000 Votes.

He ended up underperforming Trump by 7%. LOL.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

County polls are garbage. News at 11. They overestimate/underestimate constantly

[Person Man]

Well, I don’t ever think Arizona will be like Colorado for this and next decade, but it will be roughly on par with Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Maybe Minnesota.

[Vosem]

Well, I don’t ever think Arizona will be like Colorado for this and next decade, but it will be roughly on par with Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Maybe Minnesota.

PA, MI, and NH all seem kind of different, though? MI has clearly had a sustained Democratic bounce-back since Trump was sworn in; NH has a locally very strong GOP even as they do poorly up-ballot; and PA if anything has mostly continued trending right, even if Oz/Mastriano were an unreally bad ticket.

AZ seems like it's continuing to trend left, but it also had a pretty bad GOP ticket and even 2022 showed evidence that the Democratic floor there is pretty low.

[Person Man]

Well, I don’t ever think Arizona will be like Colorado for this and next decade, but it will be roughly on par with Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Maybe Minnesota.

PA, MI, and NH all seem kind of different, though? MI has clearly had a sustained Democratic bounce-back since Trump was sworn in; NH has a locally very strong GOP even as they do poorly up-ballot; and PA if anything has mostly continued trending right, even if Oz/Mastriano were an unreally bad ticket.

AZ seems like it's continuing to trend left, but it also had a pretty bad GOP ticket and even 2022 showed evidence that the Democratic floor there is pretty low.

Not literally but what I am trying to say is that Democrats will probably need to carry Arizona going forward to be competitive.

[wbrocks67]

People keep saying Pennsylvania is trending right and yet all of the biggest population areas in the state are trending blue. There is not many more areas that Republicans are not maxed out basically, while Democrats continue to have room for growth in places like Allegheny and the suburbs (Philly, Harrisburg, and Pittsburgh)

This election also showed Dems still have ancestral strength in Erie, Lackawanna, etc.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was a shift to the right because Corbett and Toomey got elected but it's still a D state and so is WI and MI, but the only reason why WI voted for JOHNSON due to R gerrymandering unlike in MI and PA their Gerrymandering is like to OH and Iowa

[It’s so Joever]

People keep saying Pennsylvania is trending right and yet all of the biggest population areas in the state are trending blue. There is not many more areas that Republicans are not maxed out basically, while Democrats continue to have room for growth in places like Allegheny and the suburbs (Philly, Harrisburg, and Pittsburgh)

This election also showed Dems still have ancestral strength in Erie, Lackawanna, etc.

Of the “big three” Michigan probably is the most likely to trend R despite its seeming bounce back while PA seems most favorable for Ds long term. Don’t forget Lancaster as a likely D trending area, it will be a meme when it finally flips. Shapiro was so close but alas no cigar.