Depressing that the normal, sane compromise position that's standard across Europe (legal until around 15 weeks) is so uncommon it doesn't have its own category.
Virginia GOP ran in that position but voters didn’t believe them. Same applies to any other Republican that tries to do that.
What if they started putting 12 or 15 weeks on the ballot as a counter-referendum to the MI/OH style referenda? I don't think the state parties are that smart or willing to compromise, though. Maybe if Trump endorses that approach.
Most voters don’t consider that a compromise. As far as most folks are concerned (including ~1/5 - ~1/4 2016 Midwestern Trump voters depending on the state), this is a settled issue and there is really no further discussion to be had. In other words, when push comes to shove, most voters support some version of “safe, legal, and rare with
Roe as the law of the land.”
Planned Parenthood v. Casey was the compromise position because it allowed for the possibility that any abortion restrictions could be constitutional (ex: informed consent, 24 hour waiting period, etc).
Republicans may not like it, but they are so wildly out of step with the majority of Americans on this major issue that what folks like Youngkin consider a compromise is functionally no different to many voters than a moment of conception ban with no exceptions.
Put simply, unless Republicans do a major 180 on abortion (or at least, truly stop trying to ban/restrict it), they’re going to keep getting their a**es kicked on this issue. And if they do a 180, then the base abandons them, so it is a real catch-22. Now, sometimes that’s worth it. Gun control is undeniably a net political loser for Democrats, but it is one of my most important issues and I feel it is so important that it is a hill worth dying on. If you genuinely believe abortion is murder, you’d have to be a monster to support anything less than a complete ban with no exceptions.
The problem for Republicans is that most voters don’t think it is murder and if you don’t think abortion is murder (even if, like me, it still makes you deeply uncomfortable to the point that you’re personally opposed to it despite being pro-choice), then banning it becomes morally unjustifiable (and if it isn’t murder, then as a man who will obviously never have to face this horrible and painful choice, who the hell am I to tell any woman what she has to do when confronted with such a truly impossible choice?).
Honestly, the only out Republicans have on this issue is for
Dobbs to eventually get reversed and then for them to subsequently quietly deemphasize the issue the way they did with gay marriage post-
Obergefell. Until then, Democrats will continue to attack them on it and the issue will remain one of the most important every election cycle until
Dobbs gets reversed. Despite Republican hopes, this isn’t an issue that will lose salience with time.
