UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Slow Learner]

are people still not getting that @sammywilsonmp is a parody account

[EPG]

Trouble for Foster at "the [DUP executive] meeting – which began with prayer and a scriptural exhortation"

[LabourJersey]

It really is astonishing what a massive mistake May made when she called for a snap election.

If she hadn't done that this darn backstop would be set in stone, but now she just constantly have to give empty rhetoric and meaningless proposals because she can't afford to lose the 10 votes of reactionary hacks who actively work against the interests of their fellow Northern Irish.

[EPG]

Hm? She would be in the same trouble if she still had 330 MPs. Conservative MPs are Unionists too after all, not all support the backstop, and it's being used as a way for the hardest Eurosceptics to attack a deal. Perhaps one could say she'd have more authority without the loss, but against that, the one grace she got in the 2017 election was the desolation of UKIP, which was really restricting her "freedom of movement".

[Silent Hunter]

The polling at the start of the campaign suggested a landslide... and she only had a small majority before that.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Compliments of the ABC-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmRYGRILOxU

[IceAgeComing]

Rumblings that if they go down the route of the backstop or any deal that treats NI and GB differently that Davidson and Mundell will both resign.  That's why this thing isn't really workable: the Tories are a Unionist Party and especially in Scotland issues like that hold great sway over the party.  Considering that its the Scottish Tories that have tended to be the ones most if favour of a softer Brexit this presents the government with some major challenges.

[Silent Hunter]

Could you not have a requirement for all animals and goods subject to extra checks to not use Northern Irish ports?

[Blair]

Lol, neither McVey, Leadsom or Mordant have anywhere near enough clout to actually be important- other than being another vote against the deal.

Very troubling to see some rather silly Labour MPs like Caroline Flint and Gareth Snell talking about backing the PM's deal- would not only be the end of their career, but frankly they should have the whip withdrawn if they voted against Labour on the most important parliamentary vote since 1979.

Around 15 MPs means less than 15 btw

[Silent Hunter]

If the choice is between a "bad deal" and no deal, then I'll take the bad deal, thank you.

[Silent Hunter]

Freedom of movement already exists between Ireland and UK under the Common Travel Area; in practice passports or other documents are checked when arriving in Ireland by air and sea.

There would be no checks between NI and GB anyway; freedom of movement basically applies to those moving for work and those 'checks' would be done, as they are already, when someone starts working.

[Silent Hunter]

And restrictions on movement there wouldn't apply either.

[LabourJersey]

What do any of the British posters think is going to finally break the Northern Ireland impasse? It seems that any time there is even the slightest movement towards some solution May and the Tories have to immediately pull back.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The sale of Ulster to the PRC, perhaps.

[EPG]

What do any of the British posters think is going to finally break the Northern Ireland impasse? It seems that any time there is even the slightest movement towards some solution May and the Tories have to immediately pull back.

The best info as of right now is that the negotiators have an agreement, but the UK cabinet is not accepting it. I guess this means they lack the votes to carry the NI question. Either that, or the timing is not right for its political acceptance on a Sunday night.

If they had enough Labour votes, they would bring it home, pass the agreement, accept that the DUP are out of the majority, so it's time for a general election. Conservative certain deal versus Labour uncertainty - that and the other augurs are pretty good, unless one believes that Corbyn magically gains 15% each election campaign [so he eventually wins 80% by the age of 80].

If they think they don't have enough Labour votes, it would look like it looks right now. To be clear, the problem at home is Northern Ireland remaining in the EU Single Market. As of tonight, it looks like 10 Labour MPs would not be enough to outweigh 1. the DUP, 2. Scottish Conservatives who fear the Scottish Nationalist government seeking to remain in the Single Market, 3. Conservative Unionists from England who agree with the Scots' principle, and 4. Conservative hard Brexiters aiming for no customs union. All agree to renege on the May-Davis commitment, perhaps not fully comprehended at the time, to maintain NI in the Single Market until all sides agree. If the Scots vote in bloc with the DUP, they alone are almost two dozen rebels from the government.

[Silent Hunter]

Here's the thing - considering all the other differences NI has with GB in its laws, why would Single Market involvement be such a stumbling block?

[EPG]

The UK analysis "why Brexit is hard" errs as it tends to over-focus on the personalities.* Newman, to give him credit, seems sufficiently self-aware of this tendency to throw in a series of clichés, to reaffirm the usual diffident Tory establishment manner: it's all just a game when you are in the right class.

The problem with Chequers is simpler and it's outlined irrefutably not by Macron but by the Commission's man, Michel Barnier, reporting to the union as a whole: unlimited access for British goods that could under-cut the EU through evasion of common standards, particularly in the services that are used to make the goods.

Forget Macron. Literally no member state is running to Britain's aid against the EU, and some of them think the EU is a Soros Zionist conspiracy!

*The EU analysis erred as it tended to under-estimate the depth of British antipathy toward foreigners, i.e. the ability to re-run the referendum. Foreigners think the British are charming if reserved, they don't get The Sun in Strasbourg!

[Silent Hunter]

You can get most British papers in major European cities, usually the day after publication.

[Silent Hunter]

Julian Smith, the Government Chief Whip, has posted a rather cryptic tweet:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JulianSmithUK/status/1051567081177698310

[swl]

The UK will leave the single market at the end of December 2020. But from that day, a hard border with custom checks between NI and Ireland will be needed, unless a specific border agreement is found. This is a red line for the EU (well mostly for Ireland I assume, but they have a veto).

So to make sure that there will not be a hard border in the future, the EU proposed that Northern Ireland remains in the customs union until a border agreement is signed (that's the "backstop" for Northern Ireland). May kind of agreed initially but had to backtrack because of the DUP. So she proposed that the entire UK remains in the customs union ("backstop" for the UK).

Now the disagreement between the two parties is that:
- the EU agrees if the UK commits to staying in the customs union until a border agreement is signed. It's a problem for May, because if it takes 20 years then the UK will remain in the customs union for 20 more years.
- UK wants to remain in the customs union until a defined date. It's a problem for the EU because if on this date, no border agreement has been found, then we will fall back on what the EU specifically wants to avoid (a hard-border).

[Silent Hunter]

Can't we have a backstop with a break clause? Say an Article 50 for the backstop if the trade talks break down?

[Silent Hunter]

I think the British parties need to sit down under the Privy Council system and agree on a common position. It would improve things a lot of the EU knew that any deal would be ratified.

[EPG]

The EU would also strongly approve of a British position that any exit deal be ratified.

[Silent Hunter]

What's the expression for when your efforts to avoid something end up causing it?

[EPG]

Just to reiterate, the British fallacy is to assume a series of individuals are responsible for what is happening in Brexit, rather than acknowledging the national and European interests that led everyone to this point.