She'll have a uphill battle to win. NY 4 is the more Republican district in Nassau County; it is more Catholic (NY-3 is more Jewish) and it has a significant number of NYPD and FDNY employees living there. Any Republican would have a tough time holding NY-3, but Santos has virtually ensured a Democratic victory in 2024 there.
Nassau's Republican Party is far more on the ball than Suffolk's. They have done more in tougher electoral territory. This CD is an exception; the GOP won here in 1992 with David Levy, a moderate Republican, but he was upset in the 1994 primary by Assemblyman Dan Frisa. Normally, Frisa would have been a safe incumbent, but a shooting on the LIRR led anti-gun activist Carolyn McCarthy to run and win, defeating Frisa. (McCarthy, IMO, would not have defeated the more moderate Levy.) It was also a time when the remnants of the Margiotta machine were having their troubles.
Nassau County's Congressional politics have greater national implications than in 1996. D'Esposito will be a good fit for that seat and the national GOP will ensure that he'll have all the money he needs. Santos's seat is likely gone; it would have been gone anyway, but Santos has been a special breed of jackass that voters will remember, and not fondly.
Yeah But this one is Biden +15, Santos' is Biden +8. I do think 4 swings more right than 3 in 2024 and Santos would obviously lose but I don't see how this is such an uphill battle for dems(even though I agree D'Espesito is not DOA)
