North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Oregons map is pretty close to NC. Both were clean but still quite brutal gerrymanders with merely 1 or 2 extra county splits from the bare minimum required for a map to have population equality.

[lfromnj]

Oregons map is pretty close to NC. Both were clean but still quite brutal gerrymanders with merely 1 or 2 extra county splits.

Nope, they weren't even comparable.

The gerrymander in OR is tame, if there is one at all. 4-2 in OR is blantantly beneficial to the GOP and would require actively trying to carve a second red seat. Maybe 4-1-1 is fairer than 5-1, but honestly, neither of them are that bad.

NC, on the other hand...If you ask me the maps used in the 2020 elections (8-5) were about fair. Instead, the NCGOP - whose congressional maps have now been struck down thrice by various courts over the past decade - decided to kill the possible fair combinations (8-5-1 or even 8-6) and went with a 10-3-1. The old maps that were twice struck down were 10-3. So this decision is based and completely justified. The NCGOP can keep getting their maps overturned unless and until they get into their heads that blatant partisan gerrymanders aren't flying anymore (and yes, I know blue states like IL, NY and MD have even worse gerrymanders, but NC has a much longer and more inflammatory recent history of gerrymandering).

How is 4-2 blatantly beneficial? Draw a map in Oregon that keeps all of Eastern Oregon whole. It's most likely going to be 2 Safe D 1 Likely D in the Portland suburbs and 1 tossup and finally a Lean D or Lean R in the south. Also of course a Safe R eastern seat.

[lfromnj]

Oregons map is pretty close to NC. Both were clean but still quite brutal gerrymanders with merely 1 or 2 extra county splits.

Nope, they weren't even comparable.

The gerrymander in OR is tame, if there is one at all. 4-2 in OR is blantantly beneficial to the GOP and would require actively trying to carve a second red seat. Maybe 4-1-1 is fairer than 5-1, but honestly, neither of them are that bad.

NC, on the other hand...If you ask me the maps used in the 2020 elections (8-5) were about fair. Instead, the NCGOP - whose congressional maps have now been struck down thrice by various courts over the past decade - decided to kill the possible fair combinations (8-5-1 or even 8-6) and went with a 10-3-1. The old maps that were twice struck down were 10-3. So this decision is based and completely justified. The NCGOP can keep getting their maps overturned unless and until they get into their heads that blatant partisan gerrymanders aren't flying anymore (and yes, I know blue states like IL, NY and MD have even worse gerrymanders, but NC has a much longer and more inflammatory recent history of gerrymandering).

How is 4-2 blatantly beneficial? Draw a map in Oregon that keeps all of Eastern Oregon whole. It's most likely going to be 2 Safe D 1 Likely D in the Portland suburbs and 1 tossup and finally a Lean D or Lean R in the south. Also of course a Safe R eastern seat.

You know that Eastern Oregon alone doesn't even have enough people for 1 full congressional district, right?

Here's my very fair map of OR (with East OR all in one seat), where I didn't even look at partisanship and focused on contiguity and compactness: https://districtr.org/plan/110808 .....Okay, never mind, I thought I could view the districts' partisanship when I was done but apparently no, I can't.

I can't say this with absolute certainty since there isn't partisan data, but I suspect that your yellow and sea-green districts would be competitive to Republican-leaning.

(This is why people prefer DRA, btw).

It looks more like 10 GOP seats with a few that are wavering but which are still reddish?

I meant District 8 and District 9, fyi.

Yellow is Trump +2 I think and Green is Biden +1 to 2. His Portland area is relatively Dem favorable and I think all 3 seats there are Safe but I will admit the region is a bit weird to draw. It isn't unreasonable to have 3 Safe seats there.

[lfromnj]

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article258300538.html
Torie should love this case.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1493273798430371847?cxt=HHwWjsC5vfSmlrkpAAA...

Wait they won't fix the only actually gerrymandered district?

[lfromnj]

7-5-2 is a great deal for a state like NC, at least if the 2 swing districts are genuine swing districts (ie went for Biden narrowly).

Sandhills should be Clinton Trump. Its a small struggle to draw a Biden district there.

[lfromnj]

Hot take- In this environment and given the trends in the black belt/results in similar seats, the black belt seat will flip unless they add Durham to it or something like that

Meh its pretty inelastic . Should be around biden +6. . Sandy Smith isn't great either. They could recruit a state house candidate who is running for the Wilson state house seat.

[lfromnj]

What will be really interesting is that a Sandhills district would be majorly influenced by the Lumbee tribes. Making it the only district this side of the Mississippi, and one of maybe three districts with a sizable indigenous population. Not to mention the black population and growing Hispanic community. It will be a new minority majority seat, which is really great to see as after 2010 there has been no minority representation for the border region in either state.

This is in general a huge win for minority communities, and people who support representative democracy in general. It’d be amazing to see a Lumbee get elected to congress. I wouldn’t be surprised if Charles Graham wins such a district, even in 2022, as the Lumbee would be the king makers of it.

That implies he wins the primary. Ben Clark is also running and he is a state senator from Fayetville/Hoke county.

[lfromnj]

[T]here are multiple reliable ways of demonstrating the existence of an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. Mean-median difference analysis; efficiency gap analysis; close-votes, close-seats analysis; and partisan symmetry analysis may be useful in assessing whether the mapmaker adhered to traditional neutral districting criteria and whether a meaningful partisan skew necessarily results from North Carolina’s unique political geography.”

From the opinion, what does this even mean?

[lfromnj]

That district 9 is certainly unexpected... looks like a swingy district though

Trump +7, its missing 30k of Orange given to the Durham district.

[lfromnj]

Note this is the house proposal, I am waiting for the senate proposal as they were actually the ones to draw the congressional maps. The house had all the retarded bait maps while the senate had the lazer eye ones that were used as the basis for the enacted map.

[lfromnj]

Looks like a map to maximize competitive districts, and uncrack Guilford/Forsyth.

If Republicans manage to win that NC-8 this year, it'll be a two year rental and nothing more.

Except they very likely to redraw post 2022 anyways. I think their goal here is to reduce Ds to 4.5 seats in 2022 (depending upon NC-01), and then redraw to reduce them to 4.

The Guilford/Forsyth district actually keeps the black percentage relatively low, making it easier for any redraw in 2023 just incase.

[lfromnj]

I think there is enough here for the Democrats to turn it down.

A lot of NC legislative Democratic leaders come from Chapel Hill.

[lfromnj]

From my understanding. This is the House's map. The one that matter is the Senate map. They seem to be the playmakers.

Yup I am actually pretty sure this is close to one of Hall's earlier's drafts . The Senate makes the maps.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1493786048278663169?cxt=HHwWgsCsoeOf_...

Yeah Woodhouse is highly skeptical of it being the map.

[lfromnj]

Butterfield's seat here is extremely unoptimized. I have no idea why there are so many rural white counties in there when they could just scoop out Goldsboro and Kinston instead. (I mean, I know it's to make it "competitive", but shouldn't ensuring minority representation be more important?)

https://twitter.com/LWVofWake/status/1452724877362929670

Basically seems what a black Democrat drew.

[lfromnj]

Here is the proposed new House map.

It really doesn't look like they changed a whole lot, outside of some of the larger metros.

They gave Democrats the Asheville gerrymander back. There isn't a lot you can change when the initial map isn't even a super gerrymander anyway.

[lfromnj]

Here is the proposed new House map.

It really doesn't look like they changed a whole lot, outside of some of the larger metros.

They gave Democrats the Asheville gerrymander back. There isn't a lot you can change when the initial map isn't even a super gerrymander anyway.

Apparently part of the reason why the Asheville split has been fought for so hard is that Buncombe County Commissioners are elected from the same districts as the representatives, which could mean that in an even year Buncombe County would be controlled by Republicans if Asheville was in one district.

I mean the GOP map still had the median Buncombce district at Biden +20. It was ugly but my fair map had nearly the same partisan split(actually a moderate GOP bias in the median district but nothing super strong) It's clearly just the same thing as what happened with Washentaw and Michigan which is dissapointing. Punishing areas like Macomb democrats possibly but giving Washtenaw Democrats 7 Safe state house seats compared to the 3 Safe and 1 lean D they should actually have. The same story happens here, Buncombe Democrats get 3 Safe seats compared to the 2 Safe or 1 Safe with 2 tossups they should have but Gastonia/Cabarrus Democrats are kept punished.(Yes both Buncombe and Cabarrus have retirements )

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ForwardCarolina/status/1493986344682545155

Hey Chapel Hill is a university town right? So it should go with another college town right?

Oh yeah just next door is Durham, its even part of the research triangle.

NAH BOONE IT IS.

[lfromnj]

God the Sebate proposed House map is just weird. They seem to really want Chapel Hill in an R district

They're just trolling to be honest--trying to draw compliant maps that would never fly with Democrats due to internal political considerations so then they can spin it as "Democrats rejected perfectly good proportional maps and went to the courts"

Woodhouse said these maps were bipartisan but I still can't see Democrats accepting Orange in a Likely R district.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1493987911192260619

Winston Salem,Fayettville both split in 2, Democrats get 5 safe seats from Charlotte. Map is pretty close to a D gerrymander arguably, not sure why the GOP wouldn't just let the special masters draw it at this point, and redraw after 24. Not sure how much worse it could it get.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1493987911192260619

Winston Salem,Fayettville both split in 2, Democrats get 5 safe seats from Charlotte. Map is pretty close to a D gerrymander arguably, not sure why the GOP wouldn't just let the special masters draw it at this point, and redraw after 24. Not sure how much worse it could it get.

Pretty sure they can't redraw the legislative maps again, unless court ordered. Congressional maps are a different story.

Technically redistricting is also supposed to be the duty of the legislature, if the maps were drawn by the court they could use that to argue that the maps should be drawn by the legislature in 23.

[lfromnj]

Also gotta love the 2000 era TN 7th with regards to NC 9th. Combining the suburbs of the 2 biggest metro areas in a Safe R seat.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1494063824953131011

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1493987911192260619

Winston Salem,Fayettville both split in 2, Democrats get 5 safe seats from Charlotte. Map is pretty close to a D gerrymander arguably, not sure why the GOP wouldn't just let the special masters draw it at this point, and redraw after 24. Not sure how much worse it could it get.

edit, it was only Fayetville where they really split. The core of WS is still one district making the other one Safe R . Also do my eyes decieve me or did they split Wilmington?

Dem path to 25 is the 25 Cooper seats and later the Cabarrus seat or run a decent candidate in Goldsboro Wilson seat which is barely Forrest but relatively inelastic.


https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1494024881448570884

R path to 30 seems to be the 28 Trump seats + Wilmington which they already hold and then either the NE black seats or a Wake seat.

Seems ok overall, not sure what exactly is fair in Moore-Cumberland. Dems get a gerrymander in Meck and Rs get a light gerrymander in Wilmington