Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Benjamin Frank]

I knew the "Zionists" would be blamed. They control everything after all, as they have for generations!

Yeah sure the conflict in Jerusalem and Gaza was all dependent on a race in Cleveland Ohio 🙄

Shows how little you know!  It's all dependent on what happens to Canadian Green Party leader Annamie Paul. 

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1422706792249925634

[Mail-order President]

How does the Clinton v Sanders OH-11 precinct map look compared to this race?

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown 35,504 50.41%
Nina Turner     31,202 44.30%

[GeneralMacArthur]

Turner's section of the article lists a bunch of people who don't live in Ohio.  Yeah I'm not surprised she got endorsed by Krystal Ball, Shaun King, Marianne Williamson, Susan Sarandon and Ilhan Omar.  I don't think those endorsements will carry much weight in OH-11.  But they certainly make her endorsements list really long.

Clinton beat Sanders by 56-43 in 2016, but in the 11th district she stomped him 68-32.  Obviously there's no signal from 2020 because Biden trashed Sanders everywhere in the state.  But Nina's entire set of endorsements just frames her as "Bernie's candidate" which I don't think is an advantage in the 11th district.

So from a million miles away, it looks to me like one candidate is running a national campaign while the other is running a very local campaign.  Nina has endorsements from Bernie and his crew of Hollywood celebrities, Justice Dem congresswomen, YouTubers and podcast hosts.  Shontel doesn't have any podcast hosts on her side but she does have the 11th district steelworker's union or whatever.  Which will matter more?

There's also the fact that Shontel is likely to score the endorsement of Fudge herself.  That could end up being all that matters.

I could be wrong of course, Nina is going to have a massive fundraising advantage (she's already outraising Shontel 15-1) from running her national campaign.  But from the votes in this poll you'd think Shontel only has a 3-5% chance of winning and I'd definitely take those odds.

I wonder how well this post from six months ago will end up holding up when all is said and done.  I doubt there will be many post-mortems of this race since the interesting result didn't happen, so the media will pretend like the entire race never happened.  So we may never know, sadly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Shontel Brown 35,504 50.41%
Nina Turner 31,202 44.30%

That's almost 10 percent of the district's total population. Impressive.

[Stuart98]

Writing something up after I do some gaming. Suffice to say it's clear that certain factions of the Democratic establishment didn't get Biden/Schumer's memo and still believe we're Public Enemy #1B.

Yes, it's totally not like Turner in particular had said and done things to hurt the party electorally in general elections in the past and needlessly burned bridges with the establishment in ways other progressive candidates haven't or anything...

Turner brought this on herself. If she hadn't made the sh** sandwich comment last year this race would have been called for her five minutes after polls closed.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1422706792249925634

Pundit brain, the district not voting for Bernie doesn't mean they don't like him. Bernie flying in is not why Turner lost this race.

[JerryArkansas]

Writing something up after I do some gaming. Suffice to say it's clear that certain factions of the Democratic establishment didn't get Biden/Schumer's memo and still believe we're Public Enemy #1B.

Yes, it's totally not like Turner in particular had said and done things to hurt the party electorally in general elections in the past and needlessly burned bridges with the establishment in ways other progressive candidates haven't or anything...

Turner brought this on herself. If she hadn't made the sh** sandwich comment last year this race would have been called for her five minutes after polls closed.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1422706792249925634

Pundit brain, the district not voting for Bernie doesn't mean they don't like him. Bernie flying in is not why Turner lost this race.

This.  Burning bridges will really screw you up.  If she had just sat back in the generals as you said she'd probably be congresswoman elect.  Cori Bush didn't have this much trouble, several others hadn't.  This was uniquely on her.

[Minnesota Mike]

Remember when after Biden said he would pick a black woman as VP Bernie Bros started pushing Nina Turner like she had a chance? Ah good times.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Writing something up after I do some gaming. Suffice to say it's clear that certain factions of the Democratic establishment didn't get Biden/Schumer's memo and still believe we're Public Enemy #1B.

[sting in the rafters]

Brown used embrace party standard-bearer

It's super effective!

[Progressive Pessimist]

I guess the media narrative after the TX-6 runoff of Trump's endorsement losing value was premature, as I suspected all along.

[7,052,770]

Breaking 44% with a loony like Turner is a great performance from progressives. They should be very proud of themselves.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I've been pretty neutral in this race so I don't really have any strong feelings about it. But I will say that the media narrative of this being a "progressive versus moderate" contest will probably grate on me. It's not like Brown is Joe Manchin, or something. More aptly this race was probably one of attitude: team player versus rogue.

[Ferguson97]

LMAO

https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1422744755931435009

[GeneralMacArthur]

I've been pretty neutral in this race so I don't really have any strong feelings about it. But I will say that the media narrative of this being a "progressive versus moderate" contest will probably grate on me. It's not like Brown is Joe Manchin, or something. More aptly this race was probably one of attitude: team player versus rogue.

Well, the moderate won, so this race means nothing and we'll get the new progressive-vs-moderate battle for the soul of the party here in a couple months.

[Pyro]

Disappointing to say the least. Another huge loss for the polling industry.

It's interesting to contrast this race and its result with NY-16 last year. Bowman, like Turner, upheld a progressive program, had the animosity of Clinton, Clyburn and the CBC, and was outspent by outside groups incl. DMFI donating millions to the opposing candidate. Bowman was also criticized by Engel and his surrogates for controversial statements about Israel, and rallied endorsements from Sanders and AOC. Yet Bowman crushed Engel by 15 points. Why then did Turner have such an uphill battle? Did it simply come down to perceived loyalty to Biden and the Democrats, and the DMFI/Third Way ads repeating attack ads? Or do we just need to find more out-of-touch incumbents?

Regardless, it's undoubtedly a painful L for progressives. Hopefully we see some primary wins in 2022.

[pppolitics]

I've been pretty neutral in this race so I don't really have any strong feelings about it. But I will say that the media narrative of this being a "progressive versus moderate" contest will probably grate on me. It's not like Brown is Joe Manchin, or something. More aptly this race was probably one of attitude: team player versus rogue.

Nina Turner compared voting for Joe Biden last year to eating a “bowl of sh*t”.

Now Biden supporters are returning the favor.

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown 36,691 50.37%
Nina Turner     32,311 44.35%

[Benjamin Frank]

Of the two close Republican primaries for the Michigan State Senate I showed earlier one of them ended up not that close

Michigan State Senate 8th district
Douglas Wozniak 9,510 35.68%
Pamela Hornberger 7,861 29.49%

but check this:

Michigan State Senate 28th district
Mark Huizenga 9,531 33.85%
Kevin Green     9,357 33.23%
Tommy Brann   9,272 32.93%

Every 174 vote counts!

[Benjamin Frank]

I guess the media narrative after the TX-6 runoff of Trump's endorsement losing value was premature, as I suspected all along.

I don't know about that. Carey won in a multi candidate field with a fairly low voter turnout.

[here2view]

Glad Turner lost. She is an absolute clown. That “concession” speech is pathetic.

[pppolitics]

Glad Turner lost. She is an absolute clown. That “concession” speech is pathetic.

Well, let me tell you, voting for Nina Turner is like eating a bowl of sh*t.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It doesn't matter with Keith Ellison, Bernie Sanders, and Nina Turner are frontrunners. Establishment purity trolls find a way to stop them.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congrats, McArthur!