For those who are unaware, this poll is done by Trump shill Richard baris, who has developed quite a Twitter following
His polling was awful in 2020.
Throw it in the trash
Except it wasn't. Do you want to provide evidence?
His polling had Biden up in Wisconsin, Michigan, by about 2-3 points each and Minnesota by 10 points (3 point Dem bias). Pennsylvania was a Trump +1 and Florida was Trump +2. I know, because I followed some of his work before the election (and why I had a better prediction than most of this forum).
Say what you want about his politics, he's better than almost everybody else at accurate polling.
It might be a Trafalagr situation though, where Trump on the ballot affects things more than anything. Of course, we still have yet to see if the polling errors in 2020 were a Trump effect or a GOP effect. This year's elections may clear that up. So you might be right, but you too should consider that you might be wrong as much as you want posters like wbrocks to.
Nope. I'm familiar with their 2016 and 2018 track record too, much more accurate than "mainstream" Nate Silver approved polls in years past that this forum thinks are reputable. To say "we don't know" if it's only when Trump is on the ballot is to say all the structural problems polls have had in underestimating Republicans from 2014 until now are simply a feature of Trump. It's not realistic. Why was polling even worse in 2020 than 2016? It was the same Trump, but more overestimation of Democrats. The social desirability hasn't gotten better, with Republicans now shut out of institutional power in this country other than... Fox News? The coalitions (and class components in them) haven't "reverted", they've gotten even more divided by class. I think people are going to find out the hard way in '22.
Part of the reason this forum sucks at analyzing elections is that they think accurate pollsters are bad and inaccurate pollsters are good, mostly because of confirmation bias that fit their left-wing skewed expectations. As we can see, it's such a bubble even Republicans here buy into the left-wing narrative about which pollsters are accurate and not. It's a joke.
And what would I be wrong about? I'm still predicting McAuliffe winning (which maybe I'll be wrong about, but that's not what you seem to be suggesting). But I'm simply suggesting that we should not dismiss polls that have a good track record. It's funny for someone who has "pessimist" in your name I've seen far more posts of yours that insinuate more optimistic results for Democrats than pessimistic.
