VA-CD Media/Big Data: Tied race at 47%

[MT Treasurer]

47% McAuliffe (D)
47% Youngkin (R)

The CD Media Big Data Poll in Virginia was sponsored by CD Media and conducted by Big Data Poll, interviewing 1,061 likely voters statewide via online survey panel from October 16 to October 20, 2021. The survey sampling error is ± 3.0% at a 95% confidence interval. Results were weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The partisan breakdown of the survey was 35.6% Democratic, 34.4% Republican, 22.8% Independent and 7.2% Other. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher.

https://creativedestructionmedia.com/news/politics/2021/10/21/cd-media-big-data-poll-virginia-gubernatorial-election-dead-even-at-47/

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/big-data-poll/


Big Data Poll
BANNED BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT

[Matty]

For those who are unaware, this poll is done by Trump shill Richard baris, who has developed quite a Twitter following

His polling was awful in 2020.

Throw it in the trash

[ElectionsGuy]

For those who are unaware, this poll is done by Trump shill Richard baris, who has developed quite a Twitter following

His polling was awful in 2020.

Throw it in the trash

Except it wasn't. Do you want to provide evidence?

His polling had Biden up in Wisconsin, Michigan, by about 2-3 points each and Minnesota by 10 points (3 point Dem bias). Pennsylvania was a Trump +1 and Florida was Trump +2. I know, because I followed some of his work before the election (and why I had a better prediction than most of this forum).

Say what you want about his politics, he's better than almost everybody else at accurate polling.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/big-data-poll/


Big Data Poll
BANNED BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT

Haha, he has a very public feud with Silver so this isn't surprising.

[Person Man]

I think I've seen them before. Didn't they the NPV very close last year or even Trump ahead? If the best here they can do is tied, it reinforces that Youngkin can win if and only if he has a bunch of "hidden voters" and McAuliffe has a lot of "missing voters".

[Xing]

Sure, Jan.

[Alben Barkley]

For those who are unaware, this poll is done by Trump shill Richard baris, who has developed quite a Twitter following

His polling was awful in 2020.

Throw it in the trash

And STILL this is the BEST he could come up with?

Race is Safe D then.

[Hollywood]

Their polling data lines up with other A pollsters on 538.  All the data is consistent with other polls pertaining to issues such as Biden's approval ratings, policies, etc.   The race in Virginia is close, but
everyone still consider it leans D. 

Ds always criticize the Republican Pollsters, but have no problem posting BS polls from D pollsters like Morning Consult, Civiqs, Change, and Data for Progress.  They all have extreme D biases that overestimate support by 3-5 points, and an average swing around 4-8 points.  I don't care about the number of races you called correctly in 2020 when so many polls over-estimated the margin of victory by 8-10 points.

[SnowLabrador]

Tossup.

[Progressive Pessimist]

For those who are unaware, this poll is done by Trump shill Richard baris, who has developed quite a Twitter following

His polling was awful in 2020.

Throw it in the trash

Except it wasn't. Do you want to provide evidence?

His polling had Biden up in Wisconsin, Michigan, by about 2-3 points each and Minnesota by 10 points (3 point Dem bias). Pennsylvania was a Trump +1 and Florida was Trump +2. I know, because I followed some of his work before the election (and why I had a better prediction than most of this forum).

Say what you want about his politics, he's better than almost everybody else at accurate polling.

It might be a Trafalagr situation though, where Trump on the ballot affects things more than anything. Of course, we still have yet to see if the polling errors in 2020 were a Trump effect or a GOP effect. This year's elections may clear that up. So you might be right, but you too should consider that you might be wrong as much as you want posters like wbrocks to.

[ElectionsGuy]

For those who are unaware, this poll is done by Trump shill Richard baris, who has developed quite a Twitter following

His polling was awful in 2020.

Throw it in the trash

Except it wasn't. Do you want to provide evidence?

His polling had Biden up in Wisconsin, Michigan, by about 2-3 points each and Minnesota by 10 points (3 point Dem bias). Pennsylvania was a Trump +1 and Florida was Trump +2. I know, because I followed some of his work before the election (and why I had a better prediction than most of this forum).

Say what you want about his politics, he's better than almost everybody else at accurate polling.

It might be a Trafalagr situation though, where Trump on the ballot affects things more than anything. Of course, we still have yet to see if the polling errors in 2020 were a Trump effect or a GOP effect. This year's elections may clear that up. So you might be right, but you too should consider that you might be wrong as much as you want posters like wbrocks to.

Nope. I'm familiar with their 2016 and 2018 track record too, much more accurate than "mainstream" Nate Silver approved polls in years past that this forum thinks are reputable. To say "we don't know" if it's only when Trump is on the ballot is to say all the structural problems polls have had in underestimating Republicans from 2014 until now are simply a feature of Trump. It's not realistic. Why was polling even worse in 2020 than 2016? It was the same Trump, but more overestimation of Democrats. The social desirability hasn't gotten better, with Republicans now shut out of institutional power in this country other than... Fox News? The coalitions (and class components in them) haven't "reverted", they've gotten even more divided by class. I think people are going to find out the hard way in '22.

Part of the reason this forum sucks at analyzing elections is that they think accurate pollsters are bad and inaccurate pollsters are good, mostly because of confirmation bias that fit their left-wing skewed expectations. As we can see, it's such a bubble even Republicans here buy into the left-wing narrative about which pollsters are accurate and not. It's a joke.

And what would I be wrong about? I'm still predicting McAuliffe winning (which maybe I'll be wrong about, but that's not what you seem to be suggesting). But I'm simply suggesting that we should not dismiss polls that have a good track record. It's funny for someone who has "pessimist" in your name I've seen far more posts of yours that insinuate more optimistic results for Democrats than pessimistic.

[Jamison5]

I think I've seen them before. Didn't they the NPV very close last year or even Trump ahead? If the best here they can do is tied, it reinforces that Youngkin can win if and only if he has a bunch of "hidden voters" and McAuliffe has a lot of "missing voters".

He had Biden +4 in September 2020 and then he just focused on states after that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's only a rally around the Flag, Terry banked in his voters early with VBM and Youngkin will get same day voting, but Youngkin significantly behind in VBM, we don't know the turnout on same day voting