I could maybe see Noem only winning by like 10 or so on a bad night for Republicans, but I have major doubts that it could be any closer than that.
If Noem wins you won't be able to update your R nut map and get it wrong
"If Noem wins you won't be able to change the fact that you have Noem winning"
Never change, no matter how much anyone else here tells you otherwise.
Let me give a list of upsets
2008 Chambliss went a runoff
2010 Bennet beat Ken Buck
2012 Baldwin beats Tommy Thompson
2014 Bill Walker wins AK
2018 Kelly wins KS
2019 KY Beshear wins
2020 GA goes blue
2022 we won red AK you do realize AK was supposed to go to Palin not Peltola
I rest my case , I have been doing this since 20o4 and never make exact maps Kerry was supposed to win FL, Ford was supposed to win TN in 2006 and many users had George Allen winning in 2006
The only yr there was no upsets was 2016 when Hillary underperforming