CA-Field Poll: Clinton +17 (user search)
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  CA-Field Poll: Clinton +17 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA-Field Poll: Clinton +17  (Read 2140 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,987
Canada
« on: September 21, 2016, 02:48:43 AM »

So Clinton is up 7 in south coast which is San Diego + Orange County but tied in Other Southern California which is mainly the inland empire. That confirms the tight polls in Nevada. There are also more undecided voters....I think it would be funny if Clinton wins Orange County only to end up losing Riverside County at the same time. Or the "undecided" middle class Latinos who populate these areas (and many parts of Clark County Nevada) come home for Hillary against the bigot. We shall see.

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.

I think you're underestimating just how difficult it is to properly poll Latinos.

The reality is that there aren't that many "middle class" Latinos in either Clark County or Riverside County of the sort that you're describing. Almost any household that is Spanish-speaking and Mexican-American will not be voting for Trump; there are no "undecided" voters in this category. The issue is that, for reasons relating to sampling, the poll is probably picking up more third or fourth generation Mexican-Americans than exist in the voting population of California. These are the only Hispanics who would consider voting for Trump...

I'd be willing to bet that polls are disastrously wrong across the board in estimating the preferences of Hispanic voters; Spanish-speaking immigrants and their children are segmented from society, they frequently move because they tend to be tenants etc. They're a very difficult group to poll, even if a Spanish-language option is available. The ones who speak Spanish, particularly if they are Mexican, are uniformly hostile towards Trump and about as engaged as voters with of their demographic background can be. Suffice it to say that I expect Clinton to crush Trump in the Inland Empire; it's going to be a bloodbath of epic proportions, unparalleled in history for both counties.
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