The Results Thread

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It’s looking like the Tories won’t break 200, let alone 210.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The C-SPAN feed was much better, but ended at 10PM EDT.  I gave up on the BBC video feed and am instead listening to the BBC world service radio feed.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There 18 Irish seats 4 Cornish seats  that the Tories have no chance at, leaving 39 for them to contest, of which they would need to win 24 to get a double century.  I don't see the Cons doing that well .

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Devon West is not Cornish.  Cornwall has 5 seats and the LibDems picked up the only seat there they didn't have from Labour.  I don't know why the Cornish seats have been so slow to report, but the 3 yet to report all have large LD margins.  Devon West had only a small LD margin, and while I was hoping that the LD could hold, I'm not surprised that the Tories won it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

She ended up here, in Albuquerque, so I've had to wade through this crap in the local media...

Obviously she didn’t realize that one is supposed to turn in Aluquerque, not stop.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The 15 remaining British seats:
Argyle & Bute: One of three unchanged Scottish seats, was a close 4-way race in 2001: held by LibDems, likely to hold.
Burwick-upon-Tweed: safe LibDem hold
Crawley: likely Labour hold, possible Tory pickup
Croyden Central: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup
Hampshire Northeast: safe Tory hold
Harlow: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup
Hexham: safe Tory hold
Ludlow: current LibDem; lean Tory
Norfolk Middle: safe Tory hold
Selby: current Labour; likely Tory gain
Sheffield Attercliffe: safe Labour hold
Skipton & Ripon: safe Tory hold
St. Ives: safe LibDem hold
Staffordshire South: safe Tory hold
Wirral West: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup

That gives:

Lab: 353 + 3 tossups
Con: 198 + 3 tossups
LibDem: 62
SNP: 6
PC: 3
IKHH: 1
Respect: 1
Independent: 1 (but likely to join Labour)
Northern Ireland: 18

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Actually, Ernest was giving the Tories Ludlow...the three toss-ups were Labor leads of 9%, 10%, and 13% last time around...so not really toss-ups, just possibilities.

Given the amount of Labour/Tory swing in nearby seats for all three of those tossups, I stand by my call of them as tossups.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Labour just held on to Selby, despite what I thought, but the swing there was extremely small by the standards of this election.

The 10 remaining British seats:
Argyle & Bute: One of three unchanged Scottish seats, was a close 4-way race in 2001: held by LibDems, likely to hold.
Burwick-upon-Tweed: safe LibDem hold
Crawley: likely Labour hold, possible Tory pickup
Hampshire Northeast: safe Tory hold
Harlow: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup
Hexham: safe Tory hold
Skipton & Ripon: safe Tory hold
St. Ives: safe LibDem hold
Staffordshire South: safe Tory hold
Wirral West: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup

That gives:

Lab: 354 + 2 tossups
Con: 198 + 2 tossups
LibDem: 62
SNP: 6
PC: 3
IKHH: 1
Respect: 1
Independent: 1 (but likely to join Labour)
Northern Ireland: 18

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Tories hold on to Hampshire NE.  Why it took so long to count I have no clue.

The 9 remaining British seats:
Argyle & Bute: One of three unchanged Scottish seats, was a close 4-way race in 2001: held by LibDems, likely to hold.
Burwick-upon-Tweed: safe LibDem hold
Crawley: likely Labour hold, possible Tory pickup
Harlow: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup
Hexham: safe Tory hold
Skipton & Ripon: safe Tory hold
St. Ives: safe LibDem hold
Staffordshire South: safe Tory hold
Wirral West: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup

That gives:

Lab: 354 + 2 tossups
Con: 198 + 2 tossups
LibDem: 62
SNP: 6
PC: 3
IKHH: 1
Respect: 1
Independent: 1 (but likely to join Labour)
Northern Ireland: 18

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Labour held Dorset South!

Mr. Knight actually increased his vote count and if it hadn't been for all those micri-candidates, would have also incrreased his percentage as well.  Any ideas on why this happened?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Berwick-upon-Tweed and Hexham for the LibDems and Tories as expected.

7 remaining British seats:
Argyle & Bute: likely LibDem hold in a four-way Scottish race
Crawley: likely Labour hold, possible Tory pickup
Harlow: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup
Skipton & Ripon: safe Tory hold
St. Ives: safe LibDem hold
Staffordshire South: safe Tory hold
Wirral West: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup

That gives:

Lab: 354 + 2 tossups
Con: 198 + 2 tossups
LibDem: 62
SNP: 6
PC: 3
IKHH: 1
Respect: 1
Independent: 1 (but likely to join Labour)
Northern Ireland: 18

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

St. Ives  for the LibDems as expected.

5 remaining British seats to be called today:
Argyle & Bute: likely LibDem hold in a four-way Scottish race
Crawley: likely Labour hold, possible Tory pickup
Harlow: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup
Skipton & Ripon: safe Tory hold
Wirral West: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup

That gives:
Lab: 354 + 2 tossups
Con: 197 + 2 tossups + 1 by-election (Staffordshire South)
LibDem: 62
SNP: 6
PC: 3
IKHH: 1
Respect: 1
Independent: 1 (but likely to join Labour)
Northern Ireland: 18

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

remaining seats to be called:
Foyle: lean SDLP hold; possible SF pickup
Harlow: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup
Mid Ulster: safe Sinn Fein hold
Newry & Armagh: current SDLP; SDLP/SF tossup
South Down: safe SDLP hold

That gives:
Lab: 355 + 1 tossup
Con: 197 + 1 tossup + 1 by-election (Staffordshire South)
LibDem: 62
SNP: 6
PC: 3
DUP: 9
Sinn Fein: 4 + 1 tossup
SDLP: 3 + 1 tossup
UUP: 1
IKHH: 1
Respect: 1
Independent: 1 (but likely to join Labour)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Smart money in Foyle is on SF. Incumbent is retiring.

Still a lot of swing for that to happen, but I’ll grant that’s probably enough to take the seat out of the safe SDLP category.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Foyle held by the SDLP with a 6K majority.

Remaining seats to be called:
Harlow: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup
Mid Ulster: safe Sinn Fein hold
South Down: safe SDLP hold

That gives:
Lab: 355 + 1 tossup
Con: 197 + 1 tossup + 1 by-election (Staffordshire South)
LibDem: 62
SNP: 6
PC: 3
DUP: 9
Sinn Fein: 5
SDLP: 3
UUP: 1
IKHH: 1
Respect: 1
Independent: 1 (but likely to join Labour)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Only Harlow now remains to be called:
current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup

That gives:
Lab: 355 + 1 tossup
Con: 197 + 1 tossup + 1 by-election (Staffordshire South)
LibDem: 62
SNP: 6
PC: 3
DUP: 9
Sinn Fein: 5
SDLP: 3
UUP: 1
IKHH: 1
Respect: 1
Independent: 1 (but likely to join Labour)

Does anyone have idea what happens if there is a tie in Harlow?