MA Special Election Watch Thread

[RogueBeaver]

Capuano and Downing still considering a race. Downing and Brown will decide in the next 2 weeks.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/top_democrats_try_to_clear_senate_field_for_markey_but_others_considering-220504-1.html?pos=opolh

[Talleyrand]

He also took a shot at Markey over residency.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/scott-brown-prods-ed-markey-on-massachusetts-residency-85679.html?hp=f3

He follows the winning "OMG, Warren claimed she was Native-American!!!" strategy.

Residency can actually be a legitimate issue, unlike racial ancestry. If he successfully casts this election a choice between an "independent-minded Massachusetts workingman" like himself and "a tired old extreme hack who lives 99% of the time in Washington", it can actually help his campaign, unlike the "OMG, Warren claimed she was Native-American!!!" strategy. Brown will be able to turn the former into a question of who can better represent Massachusetts, while his attack on Warren was just an ineffective, bizarre attack on her character.

I hope Downing enters. Democrats need to give Markey some competition in the primary to actually see if he can campaign, and have a decent alternative on standby.

[RogueBeaver]

Or just rerun anti-Markey D ads. Downing apparently plans on running a positive campaign if he does jump but like 2012 I expect them to start taking shots at each other eventually. We'll see how much of a demolition derby this turns out to be.

[Talleyrand]

That's a good point. If any other serious candidates enter for the Democrats, the DSCC should make sure they sign a pact to remain civil, if they won't do it on their own.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't see how that can be enforced or even how one defines civil in this context. When Warren kept referring to "tax cuts for millionaires, billionaires and oil companies" and Brown kept saying "Professor Warren"... that's going negative while remaining perfectly civil. At the end of the day Markey's challengers would be playing the anti-coronation and in Downing's case, generational card. It isn't like they have major disagreements on the issues so far as I know.

[Talleyrand]

The main way that could be avoided is if they avoided mentioning each other directly, even if they played the generation card/experience card, etc. In that case, the opposition couldn't take the loser's ads and then rerun them (in some manner) effectively.  

I still think Brown will win against Markey, although it will be close. I think with Downing there might be more uncertainty, though I would still expect Brown to beat him narrowly.

He's built up the goodwill and name recognition to hit the ground running in a way his opponents will be unable to do in a span of a few months most likely.

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed w/your assessment, would be surprised if it was more than 3 points either way.

[Zioneer]

He also took a shot at Markey over residency.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/scott-brown-prods-ed-markey-on-massachusetts-residency-85679.html?hp=f3

Wow, Brown sounds like he stuffed nerds in lockers and gave freshmen swirlies in highschool. How did he get a reputation for niceness when he's acting like a stereotypical jock?

[Dan the Roman]

He also took a shot at Markey over residency.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/scott-brown-prods-ed-markey-on-massachusetts-residency-85679.html?hp=f3

Wow, Brown sounds like he stuffed nerds in lockers and gave freshmen swirlies in highschool. How did he get a reputation for niceness when he's acting like a stereotypical jock?

He didn't have a reputation for niceness. He had one for hard work, especially for constituents(like ex-high school jocks working blue-collar jobs) who tend to be ignored by the Democratic establishment. The state is changing under his feat though, even since 2010.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God, please not the primary clusterf**k...

[RogueBeaver]

Lynch is giving "serious thought" to running. Brown said in that same radio interview that the Dems are making it "awfully tempting" for him to run.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2013/01/lynch-still-mulling-bid-for-kerrys-senate-seat-153259.html

[Brittain33]

Lynch is giving "serious thought" to running. Brown said in that same radio interview that the Dems are making it "awfully tempting" for him to run.

Am I crazy, or does that word choice make it sound as if he's not running for Senate? If he were, I don't think he'd be joking quite like that.

[minionofmidas]

At least so far, he's not running and all those Dems are running. The reason: at least so far, there is no conceivable way he could win.

[Miles]

Frank asked to be the placeholder.

[Vosem]

At least so far, he's not running and all those Dems are running. The reason: at least so far, there is no conceivable way he could win.

I can't actually think of a way for anyone, except for some sort of universally-respected (not-running) elder statesman with near-universal name recognition, a la Vicki Kennedy, to beat him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But, again, you are fifteen.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not sure what news cycle Vosem's been in the past two months. Evidently not the same one as Brown, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To be fair, he's not the only one being fairly deluded about Brown's awesome awesomeness.

[Vosem]

I'm not sure what news cycle Vosem's been in the past two months. Evidently not the same one as Brown, though.

The one where two polls have been released -- one shows Brown losing to Patrick 48-43 but beating Vicki Kennedy 46-40 ( http://emersoncollegepollingsociety.com/ECPS_Survey_Results.pdf ) -- and I think you'll agree with me that both Patrick and Kennedy are stronger candidates than the ones showing up -- and the other shows Brown leading all comers, including the magical Generic Democrat, by at least 7 points ( http://www.wbur.org/files/2012/12/1220_wbur-senate-poll-topline.pdf ). This poll shows Brown leading Markey by 18 points, Capuano by 19 points, and Lynch by 27 points.

Unless you want to unskew them for me...

[Iosif]

But, again, you are fifteen.

Hahaha

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why would Brown run for this seat, absent stupidity, considering it would entail having to run again in 2014, possibly facing Patrick, thus running for Senate four times in five years for the possibility of one full term, when his path to the corner office is significantly easier? I'm not saying he won't--he very well might--just that it would indicate he isn't interested in the path of least resistance and doesn't particularly care about the relative possibility of long-term political success.

[minionofmidas]

And losing two races in a row tends to be an electoral death sentence.

Unless you want to unskew them for me...

That is going to be difficult to do seeing as these outfits seem to have no track record whatsoever. Though I did look at the second in detail and its findings can be summed up as a) Scott Brown has a hell of a name rec advantage that is going to skew all early polling b) Vicki Kennedy would be a very bad choice; doing worse than the Congresscritters despite her name rec advangage c) and yes, obviously, if Brown runs Dems will actually have to spend money here and this will be a legitimate race. (Indeed it looks like "only if" from that poll, but I wouldn't buy such a claim. Unknown Republican can turn out a decent candidate, whoever gets the Dem nod can turn out campaigning Coakley style, the Dem primary has great potential to become a complete clusterfuck. These latter scenarios are what I thought of when I wrote "for now" earlier.) It does not in any way follow from it that pundits should consider him the favorite.

EDIT: And yes, that is actually a little better than I would have expected him doing even in crap polls like that; and no I wasn't aware of them. Forgot to work that in somehow.

[Roemerista]

I'm sticking with my bold prediction--that Brown sits this one out, and Weld tilts at this windmill.

Just saying, it would be interesting. Obama promised the Clintons to campaign for whoever, and Weld is personal friends with them.

Also, Warren hasn't endorsed Markey yet.

[krazen1211]

Brown probably cannot win and has little reason to even want to win.


http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/275683-rep-stephen-lynch-making-preparations-for-massachusetts-special-election

In any case, here comes Mr. Lynch.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Oh joy.