French Presidential Election; Results Thread (1st round)

[minionofmidas]

Le Pen only got 11?That's truly amazing.

He'll rise a little still.

Yeah well, congrats to Sarkozy for winning over a sizeable chunk of Lepenites. Unfortunately, he'll now go on to win the runoff as well.

[minionofmidas]

Besancenot did the same in Martinique... of course Le Pen got just 2.1% of the vote there.
Bové breaks 5% in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon!

[minionofmidas]

Besancenot did the same in Martinique... of course Le Pen got just 2.1% of the vote there.
Bové breaks 5% in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon!

What's 5% in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, 2 votes?

137.4. Bové got 141, or 5.13%.

And in New Caledonia he got 5.9% and fourth place - and this is one overseas area where there always used to be an FN presence!

[minionofmidas]

Is this accurate?:

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I thought there's a runoff no matter how close the top 2 candidates are.

So if Candidate A was at 45% and runner-up B is at 25%, they would still have a runoff, right? It has to be over 50% to win.

"Close" being a misnomer here. 49-1 would be "close" under this definition while 51-49 wouldn't be.

(tries to imagine a scenario where the second place candidate advances to a runoff on less than 1.5% of the vote. Fails)

[minionofmidas]

Is it unusual that Sarkozy did so well in Seine-Saint-Denis?

Royal 34.1%
Sarkozy 26.7%
Bayrou 16.7
Le Pen: 9%

That's not Sarkozy doing well at all... it's his worst department in the Paris metropolitan area and by some distance...

34 to 26 is certainly not bad considering the large margins in other departments around the country. Saint Denis is, correct me if I'm wrong, historically far-left and it's full of muslim immigrants.

It was Chirac's only third-place showing in 2002, with Jospin first and Le Pen second. He has really collapsed there.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, and the polls OVERESTIMATED Le Pen? Can you believe that? The 20-4-07 IPSOS poll gave him 13.50%, he got around 11%.

They may have been doing a lot of completetly unnecessary correcting...

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I don't. Not yet anyways.

Obviously that FN Lite Sarkozy held a lot of appeal to Le Pen's voters, especially to Le Pen's more affluent voters, so they went back to their original political home in droves.
Now, what we should be asking is... is this appeal an indicator of what Le Pen's remaining voters will be doing in the runoff? Or has Sarkozy run off with, as it were, the FN's right wing (in economic terms), leaving the remaining FN vote less likely to split heavily to him?
Answers in two weeks...

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That's easy - the 2002 runoff. More interesting is why Besancenot held up, actually. (Also, the remnant Green vote got split, along what seem, roughly, to be north-south lines, by Bové.)

[minionofmidas]

Overview of which minor candidates cracked 2 percent where (region names should be read as "all départements in..."):

Top three: everywhere

Le Pen (10.5): everywhere except Wallis & Futunua and Polýnesie

Besancenot (4.1): everywhere except Wallis & Futuna, Nouvelle Calédonie and Polynésie

de Villiers (2.2): Picardie, Haute Normandie, Basse Normandie, Ille et Vilaine, Morbihan, Pays de la Loire, Poitou-Charente, Dordogne, Lot et Garonne, Tarn, Tarn et Garonne, Aveyron, Gard, Vaucluse, Var, Alpes de Haute Provence, Hautes Alpes, Rhone-Alpes except Isère and Rhone, Franche Comté, Alsace, Lorraine except Meurthe et Moselle, Champagne-Ardennes, Bourgogne, Auvergne except Puy de Dôme, Limousin, Centre, Seine et Marne

Buffet (1.9): Nord, Pas de Calais, Aisne, Somme, Seine Maritime, Cotes d'Armor, Dordogne, Landes, Hautes Pyrennées, Ariège, Lot, Languedoc-Roussillon except Lozère, Bouches du Rhone, Alpes de Haute Provence, Ardèche, Meurthe et Moselle, Nièvre, Allier, Puy de Dôme, Limousin, Cher, Indre, Seine-St Denis, Val de Marne, Corse, la Réunion

Voynet (1.6): Ille et Vilaine, Hautes Alpes, Savoie, Haute Savoie, Jura, Alsace, St Pierre & Miquelon

Laguiller (1.3) : Nord, Pas de Calais, Aisne, Somme, Seine Maritime, Ardennes

Bové (1.3): Ariège, Lot, Aveyron, Lozère, Alpes de Haute Provence, Hautes Alpes, Ardèche, St Pierre & Miquelon, Nouvelle Calédonie

Nihous (1.2): Aisne, Oise, Calvados, Manche, Charente Maritime, Landes, Gers, Tarn et Garonne, Lot, Lozère, Alpes de Haute Provence, Ardèche, Cantal, Creuse

Schivardi (0.3): Aude

[minionofmidas]

I was comparing the final predictions of 12 posters, and found the following accuracy ranking (using BBC numbers).

Tied for first place, Democratic Hawk, Keystone Phil and yours truly.

Tied for fourth, Kireev and Tobias Beecher.

Sixth was Harry Haller.

Seventh was Sarkozy.

Eighth was Sam Spade.

Ninth was Gustaf

Tied for tenth were Gully Foyle and Lewis Trondheim

Twelveth was Verily.

Since his last prediction post actually contained two seperate predictions, the latter of which was a range, I omitted Umengus from the list.

Now, both Sarkozy and Keystone Phil were very close in predicting Sarkozy's percentage.

Democratic Hawk was extremely close in predicting Royal's percentage.

Harry Haller had the best prediction for Bayrou.

I had the closest prediction for Le Pen.

Eh... I was pretty good on Royal and Bayrou... and also on (Sarkozy+Le Pen combined)...

[minionofmidas]

Total Result
Turnout 83.8%
Sarkozy 31.2%
Royal 25.9%
Bayrou 18.6%
Le Pen 10.4%

French Abroad Result
Turnout 40.3%
Sarkozy 38.5%
Royal 29.9%
Bayrou 21.5%
Le Pen 3.3%

Result Excluding French Abroad
Turnout 84.6%
Sarkozy 31.1%
Royal 25.8%
Bayrou 18.6%
Le Pen 10.5%

Result DOMs, TOMs and CTs
Turnout 64.5%
Royal 39.7% (la Réunion is much the largest of these, and provides well over 100% of Royal's margin of victory here)
Sarkozy 33.7%
Bayrou 10.4%
Le Pen 3.7%

Result Metropolitan France (incl. Corse)
Turnout 85.3%
Sarkozy 31.0%
Royal 25.4%
Bayrou 18.8%
Le Pen 10.7%

And since Corsican turnout was lower than that of any mainland department...

Result Corse
Turnout 75.5%
Sarkozy 37.0%
Royal 21.8%
Le Pen 15.3% (he held his 2002 share here, btw.)
Bayrou 12.4%

Result Mainland France
Turnout 85.4%
(percentages as when including Corse - its' population is not very large)

[minionofmidas]

Sarkozy did insanely well in West Paris.

[minionofmidas]

The SFIO (the pre-Mitterand socialist party; actually a rural centrist party with a curious love of overblown pseudo-Marxist rhetoric) was strong in the southwest of France, largely as a result of a network of strong party bosses in the area in the inter-war years keeping the corpse of the SFIO alive (remember this is the same time in which the PCF, basically, became the party of the industrial working class). The orginal reasons for SFIO strength there have a lot to do with the areas distance from Paris (Socialism being an attractive way of protesting) and, in some areas, religious/anti-clerical/sectarian geography (though you have to be careful with that. The link is stronger with Communist support in the South IIRC).

Somewhere I have some old maps. Wait a sec...

They've basically inherited the Napoleon III- era Republican stronghold there.

[minionofmidas]

Why didn't you include Nihous? (Or Schivardi? )

[minionofmidas]

Is there a link with circonscription results? Or is it a case of adding canton figures together?

Le Monde have a good flash graphic - you click on each departement then on each seat.

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/panorama/0,11-0@2-823448,32-901390,0.html

I can't find it for the second round.