Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Madeira elections.

Turnout until 12:00h:

2019 - 21.0% (+3.8 )
2015 - 17.2%
2011 - 23.5%
2007 - 24.0%

[Mike88]

Some voting problems being reported in Madeira:

- Long lines, and bad organization, in some polling stations are creating some irritation in voters;

- PSD is being accused of calling voters to get out the vote and of having electoral posters near polling stations;

- PS is also being accused of sending messages, via SMS and Facebook Messenger, to voters to get out the vote, and a parish president, from the PS, is being accused of greeting voters in the front of a polling station;

More here: https://www.dnoticias.pt/liveblog/saiba-tudo-sobre-as-regionais-de-2019-KK3840590

[Mike88]

Curious numbers:

Until 13:00h, in one parish in Santa Cruz, the 2nd biggest municipality in Madeira, 66% of voters had already cast a ballot. The parish in question, Camacha, has 6,400 registered voters, 2.5% of registered voters in Madeira.

Santa Cruz is a stronghold for JPP. In 2015, PSD and JPP were neck and neck here. JPP was polling very badly in the last polls, it will be curious to see if Santa Cruz will be a two way race, PSD vs PS, or a three way race, PSD vs PS vs JPP.

[Mike88]

Turnout until 16:00h:

2019 - 40.8% (+3.3)
2015 - 37.5%
2011 - 43.5%
2007 - 44.7%

It seems, IMO, that turnout will end up somewhere around 52-55%. We'll see.

2 hours left until polls close and the RTP exit poll is announced.

[Mike88]

RTP exit poll.

Turnout: 54-59%

In 2015, turnout stood at 49.7%.

[Mike88]

10 minutes until polls close.

[Mike88]

RTP exit poll:

37-41% PSD, 19/23 seats
34-38% PS, 17/21
5-7% CDS, 2/3
3-5% JPP, 1/2
1-3% CDU, 0/1
1-3% BE, 0/1
1-2% PAN, 0/1

Too close to call.

But according to the exit poll, only a PSD+CDS coalition seems possible.

[Mike88]

The PSD exit poll result seems to be equal with the average of the pre-election polls, 38/39%. The PS seems to have gained a lot of votes from leftwing parties, particularly BE, who, like CDU, are at risk of being wiped out from the regional parliament.

Everthing is unclear right now.

[Mike88]

First results:

1 parish in (Paul do Mar): a PSD stronghold

48.0% PSD (-17.2)
22.3% CDS (+4.7)
20.2% PS (+18.3)

Other parties bellow 2%.

Things don't look good for the PSD... We'll see.

[Mike88]

2 parishes in: (3.7%)

48.6% PSD (-7.9)
28.6% PS (+24.1)
12.0% CDS (-8.2)

Others parties bellow 2%.

[VPH]

Why is PSD doing so badly in Madeira? I haven't been watching Portuguese news in a few months.

[Mike88]

Why is PSD doing so badly in Madeira? I haven't been watching Portuguese news in a few months.

They aren't doing that bad. Their doing a bit badly, but their results, so far, seem in line with the polls, 38/39%, and even the EP election results, around 37%. The issue is that many leftwing voters concentrated their vote in the PS, resulting in a neck and neck result with the PSD. BE and CDU are basically scrapped in Madeira, according to the returns.

The PSD losing its majority was a forgone conclusion for a long time. 43 years of absolute power is a long, long time.

[Mike88]

More parishes in: 13.0%

53.1% PSD (-1.7)
31.0% PS (+20.4)
  5.7% CDS (-11.0)

All other parties bellow 2%.

[Mike88]

35.2 in:

52.2% PSD (-2.7)
31.1% PS (+20.0)
  6.0% CDS (-10.4)
  2.3% JPP (-2.7)

All other parties bellow 1%.

[Mike88]

Nothing yet from Funchal. 42% of the electorate is from Funchal city.

PSD seems to be holding up in many rural areas, but nothing compared with the swings in favour of the PS, 20 plus.

[Estrella]

50% in, PSD and CDS keep going down, PS climbing:
PSD 48%
PS 34%
CDS 5%
JPP 2%

From the Observador results page

[Mike88]

50% in, PSD and CDS keep going down, PS climbing:
PSD 48%
PS 34%
CDS 5%
JPP 2%

From the Observador results page

Indeed, Funchal will decide who wins, basically. PSD got 42% in 2015, CDS 13.1%, and PS 13.0%, respectively. PSD needs to hold on to 38-40% in Funchal city, to have a comfortable margin in the overall result.

[ON Progressive]

Is there any reason why Madeira is right leaning anyway?

[Mike88]

Is there any reason why Madeira is right leaning anyway?

A lot of reasons. Madeira is a relatively conservative area and where small property owners are the huge majority. This reason was quite important, in the 70's, to create the voting intentions of voters in Portugal. The fear of the left, after the 74 revolution, stealing properties from their owners cemented the vote in more rightwing parties. The church is also very important in Madeira, and their support for the PSD was crucial. And finally, the man who made Madeira one of the wealthiest regions in Portugal, Alberto João Jardim, ruled Madeira for almost 40 years, although he exited, in 2015, with a lot of public debts.

[Mike88]

Madeira newspapers are reporting some results from Funchal city: PSD seems to have won 2 parishes, while the PS has won one, so far.

The big ones are still out.

[Mike88]

Final results: PSD wins, PSD+CDS have a majority

39.4% PSD (-5.0), 21 seats (-3)
35.8% PS (+24.4), 19 (+14)
  5.8% CDS (-7.9), 3 (-4)
  5.5% JPP (-4.9), 3 (-2)
  1.8% CDU (-3.7), 1 (-1)
  1.7% BE (-2.1), 0 (-2)
  1.5% PAN (new), 0
  1.2% PURP (new), 0
  1.2% RIR (new), 0
  1.0% PTP (new), 0 (-1)
  2.8% Others
  2.3% Blank/Invalid

55.5% Turnout (+5.8 )

[crals]

Incredibly bad luck for BE. PS syphoned nearly all the anti-PSD vote.

Despite their awful result CDS are ironically at their most powerful in Madeira ever atm.

[Mike88]

Incredibly bad luck for BE. PS syphoned nearly all the anti-PSD vote.

Despite their awful result CDS are ironically at their most powerful in Madeira ever atm.

Yeah, the anti-PSD vote congregated all in the PS, quite astonishing.

CDS leader is speaking, and he is suggesting a PSD+CDS coalition. PSD is also talking about it. Now, the PSD-Madeira has to be more humble.

BE, what a disaster. A few weeks ago, some polls put them in 3rd tied with CDS, and they only got 1.7%.

On the funny side, Santana Lopes Alliance result was a disaster... his party polled behind Tino de Rans' RIR

[Mike88]

Results of Madeira's 3 biggest municipalities:

Funchal: PS 39.0%; PSD 37.1%; CDS 5.7%; JPP 2.5%; 2.5% CDU; 2.2% BE; PAN 1.9%; RIR 1.3%
Santa Cruz: PS 30.7%; PSD 29.5%; JPP 22.9%; CDS 4.4%; CDU 1.5%; BE 1.5%; PAN 1.5%
Câmara dos Lobos: PSD 46.7%; PS 28.0%; CDS 7.4%; RIR 2.2%; BE 1.9%; CDU 1.9%; JPP 1.7%

[Mike88]

Paulo Cafôfo (PS) concedes and congratulates Miguel Albuquerque and the PSD. But, he acknowledges that the PSD has lost their majority and he will not give up in changing Madeira. He also says he's willing to form a coalition with the opposition parties.

Well, that last part will not happen, of course.