Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Battista Minola 1616]

Maybe this is a stupid question or rather one that answers itself, but is there a reason why Vox is so weak in Galicia other than the region not being "culturally Castilian"? I ask because unlike the Basque Country or Catalonia (when it comes to national parties) it is a typically conservative region - indeed every other PP leader has been Galician. Vox also did pretty well in the Balearic Islands in 2019, which are about as Catalan-speaking and rich as Catalonia proper.

[MRCVzla]

Is there a place where we can see the full lists in each circunscripcion when they are published?

In June 21 (two days after the deadline to register lists) the preliminary lists are published at the Official State Gazette or Boletín General del Estado (BOE), the definitive lists after being proclaimed by the Provincial Electoral Commissions are published on June 26 also at the BOE.

For now, will only now by the press some leaks of the lists (not only Sumar, but PP and Vox lists will be known within the next days...), in some cases the lists are already approved by the parties like PSOE today or PNV yesterday or who will be the lead candidate in some major regional/nationalist lists (Gabriel Rufían repeats in the ERC one, as well Aitor Esteban in the PNV, for example).

[Velasco]

UPN will be running separately from PP for the first time ever. With the right vote divided, the most likely seat distribution in Navarre is PSOE 2 (+1), UPN 1 (-1 compared to NA+), Sumar/UP 1, Bildu 1

We have an April poll from GAD3 that has the PP at 22% and UPN at 7% for a general election matchup.

Possible, as regional parties do worse in a general election. But with the right wing vote divided it's still a likely gain for PSOE.

Maybe, nonetheless, it will be close. Bildu is expected to do well again and Vox could also win a seat, although I think it's still a long shot. It could be 1 seat for the 5 main parties, or 1/2 for the biggest party, either PP or PSOE, and 1 for Bildu and Sumar.

UPN and PP have never run against each other in general elections,  so it's a mistery how conservative voters will behave there. The 2 seats won by NA+ in 2019 might well split between the two parties.  Given that Vox is out of the contest in Navarra and the Basque Country (the party's weakest regions), a possible result could be: PSOE 1, PP 1, UPN 1, Bildu 1 and Sumar 1. I think the last seat could be in dispute between the party winning a plurality and Sumar.

Kinda dissappointed because some friends told me the Sumar head of list in my province will be the same regional leader of Podemos who was ousted from the Canarian patliament. In past elections UP placed judge Victoria Rosell, who was a decent candidate. In case Sumar replaces her and puts Noemí Santana on the top of the list,  my vote will be for the PSOE

[Former President tack50]

Maybe this is a stupid question or rather one that answers itself, but is there a reason why Vox is so weak in Galicia other than the region not being "culturally Castilian"? I ask because unlike the Basque Country or Catalonia (when it comes to national parties) it is a typically conservative region - indeed every other PP leader has been Galician. Vox also did pretty well in the Balearic Islands in 2019, which are about as Catalan-speaking and rich as Catalonia proper.

Well it really does come down to Galicia not being culturally Castillian in the end. Galicia's PP branch, in a very skillful way, managed to sort of "appropiate" the space that in other parts of Spain would have gone to a nationalist party like PNV or CiU. The 1981 Galician election, which is also sometimes seen as "the beginning of the end for UCD", where AP beat UCD in an upset, is very notable.

The campaign from AP was surprisingly soft-nationalist (remember, AP was being ran by a literal Francoist minister!) and it had one of the most famous slogans in Spanish history "Galicians like you", in Galician, with Fraga's face.

There is also the fact that Galicia and rural Galicia in particular has always been a clientelist/machine region, with the machines working for AP/PP since the 1980s. Not unique to Galicia of course, but it helps explain why PP has a stronghold there.

Also, I guess Galicia has a much more "healthy" and less "conflictive" relationship with Spain at large? Might be related to the above I suppose; but the relationship in Galicia seems a lot less confrontational than that of Catalonia. Less confrontation ends up meaning less need for a radical party like Vox. Meanwhile the Balearics have a much more confrontational debate in that area, with the anti-Catalonia side basically claiming that the nationalists and the left want the islands to be annexed into the greater Catalan Reich, while the other side claims that the right wants to eliminate every sort of unique culture, erase the catalan language and replace it with Spanish flags.

[Mike88]

New GAD3 poll:

https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1667973033158377474

Interesting that it follows the trend of some of the latest polls that show a growing PP-PSOE bipolarization, with Vox losing to PP and Sumar to PSOE.

But, we still have a month and a half until the election.

[MRCVzla]

SigmaDos (for El Mundo) also yesterday published their poll, kinda optimist for Sumar and less pro-bipartisan like GAD3.
https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1667656897464262659

The trend seems to be PP 140-150+, PSOE above 100 with a similar % respect to both 2019 elections, Vox and Sumar around low-high 30-ish seats, very key how Vox retains seats in provinces with more than 5-6 seats to avoid full bipartisan allocation, in the rest/nationalists the changes between them depends on how catalan separatists (mostly the left-wing ones), UPN in Navarra -GAD3 directly says they are DOA, unlike other pollsters- or the "España vaciada" movement (standing in 12 provinces including all Aragón or Soria, specially the later also related to break potential bipartisan landslide there) could mobilize during this pre-election days.

[MRCVzla]

Habemus the first PP+Vox coalition agreement, in Valencian Community, PP regional leader Carlos Mazón secures Vox support to his investiture and will form part of the upcoming regional govt., the Vox regional leader Carlos Flores (invicted in the past for domestic/gender violence) "sacrified" himself in order to be done, he will be anyway transfered to lead the Vox list in Valencia in the 23J GE. Vox will also have the Speaker role in the Valencian Courts (regional parliament), the agreement is concentrated in five strategic axes (some kind of redundant):

1.  Freedom, so that we can all choose.
2. Economic development to reduce unnecessary spending and boost the economy.
3. Health and social services, to reinforce public health and social services.
4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks
5. Support for families, to promote the birth rate, security and promotion of families

Other Autonomous Communities were PP+Vox have high chances of coalition governments are Extremadura, Aragón or Balearic Islands, Vox threatens to force electoral repeats if agreements are not reached with them.

The latest news in the Barcelona battle for the mayorship is a proposal from incumbent mayor Ada Colau to turns the mayorship between Ernest Maragall (ERC), her and PSC' Jaume Collboni during the term to avoid Xavier Trias (the most voted candidate) and the right-wing take the Mayor' baton, PSC already rejects this option. The installation of the municipal consistory (as in the whole country) is this Saturday.

To refresh GE news, the drama of Podemos and Sumar continues despite their coalition pact, the "purples" seems to fight to the end to have Irene Montero on the Sumar lists, but Yolanda Díaz rest importance putting the focus on the country' "real problems" instead of some personalism. Sumar' number 2 on Madrid list will be Agustín Santos Maraver, diplomatic who worked for Gónzalez and Zapatero governments and current Ambassador of Spain to the UN, also has some NATO-critical views according some blogs under nickname revealed by some right-wing media. MEPs Ernest Urtasun (campaign) and Eugenia Rodriguez Palop (electoral program) are the coalition coordinators.

PSOE lists were approved in weekend as i said days ago, along with Sánchez other 4 ministers will follow him on the Madrid list: Teresa Ribera (Deputy PM, Ecological transition), Félix Bolaños (Secretary of the PM), Margarita Robles (Defense) and José Manuel Albares (Foreign Affairs). Miquel Iceta (Culture) and Raquel Sánchez (Transport) to follow Speaker Meritxell Batet on Barcelona, Treasury minister Maria Jesús Montero will lead again Sevilla list, Fernando Grande-Marlaska (Internal Affairs) leads Cádiz, Isabel Rodríguez (Territorial Policy and cabinet' spokeperson) in Ciudad Real, Luis Planas (Agriculture) in Córdoba, Héctor Gómez (Industry, Commerce and Tourism) in Tenerife, José Miñones (Health) in Coruña as well Pilar Alegria (Education) in Zaragoza. Sánchez also recovers former ministers Carmen Calvo in Granada and José Luis Ábalos as 2nd behind Diana Morant (Science minister) in Valencia, controversy was not abscent as the Alegría and Morant/Ábalos "dedazos" were questioned by the Aragón and Valencian regional directions, as well in other territories like Castilla y León or Asturias also expressed some disconfort on the list but they accepted anyway (the Castilla-La Mancha branch was also dissatisfied, but they were taken into account and there were no major movements in their provinces). Not being part of the lists as neither affiliated to PSOE is Economy minister and Deputy PM Nadia Calviño who will take on main role on the campaign.

On PP side, Feijoo presumes internal renovation as 3/4 of their list holders are changed respect to 2019 elections, Parliamentary spokewoman Cuca Gamarra will return to her home province La Rioja, Party General coordinator and ongoing Senator Elias Bendodo leads Málaga, MEP Esteban Gónzalez Pons to head Valencia also recovers Alberto Fabra in Castellón, other "strong persons" of Feijoo' direction leading are Juan Bravo (Economy deputy secretary) in Sevilla, Miguel Tellado (Organization deputy secretary) in Coruña, Carmen Fúnez (Social Policy) in Ciudad Real, the big changes comes in Barcelona with Nacho Martín Blanco, former Cs regional MP and spokeperson in the Parlament, and as expected, former UPN MP Miguel Sayas to lead the list in Navarra, to repeat as list holders MP like former Speaker and minister Ana Pastor (Pontevedra), Carlos Rojas (Granada), Antonio Bérmudez de Castro (Salamanca), Macarena Montesinos (Alicante), Ana Vásquez (Ourense) or Beatriz Fanjul (Bizkaia). Still unknown the rest of the Madrid list, sources appoint what the 2nd on the list behind Feijoo (a woman, due to "zipper lists") could be a "star signing", so far is known what party spokeperson Borja Sémper and Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo will be on the Madrid list.

[Mike88]

4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks

I don't get this. What does this even mean?

[BigSerg]

4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks

I don't get this. What does this even mean?

Bring back the Spanish flags and the Spanish language to Valencia. With the Frankenstein government, the Esteladas (Catalan flags) and the Catalan language completely dominated the Valencian courts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks

I don't get this. What does this even mean?

Bring back the Spanish flags and the Spanish language to Valencia. With the Frankenstein government, the Esteladas (Catalan flags) and the Catalan language completely dominated the Valencian courts.

So that's it.

[MaxQue]

4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks

I don't get this. What does this even mean?

Bring back the Spanish flags and the Spanish language to Valencia. With the Frankenstein government, the Esteladas (Catalan flags) and the Catalan language completely dominated the Valencian courts.

So, destruction of the Valencian identity and imposition of the Francoist identity.

[Battista Minola 1616]

4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks

I don't get this. What does this even mean?

"Hallmarks (identity signs)" is the most important thing in Spanish politics, so I am surprised you don't get it.

[Velasco]

Former PM Zapatero was superb in a recent interview with rightwing journalist Carlos Herrera, vindicating his achievements with passion and conviction. A moral refence for the dark years to come

https://www.youtube.com/live/b6UZk2nKsbM?feature=share

[Conservatopia]

4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks

I don't get this. What does this even mean?

Franco body pillows.

[Mike88]

4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks

I don't get this. What does this even mean?

"Hallmarks (identity signs)" is the most important thing in Spanish politics, so I am surprised you don't get it.

I know it's a major deal in Spain, but I honestly didn't get it at first. For a Portuguese there's some Spanish things that we sometimes have to ask, "I beg your pardon?"

[Velasco]

4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks

I don't get this. What does this even mean?

"Hallmarks (identity signs)" is the most important thing in Spanish politics, so I am surprised you don't get it.

I know it's a major deal in Spain, but I honestly didn't get it at first. For a Portuguese there's some Spanish things that we sometimes have to ask, "I beg your pardon?"

PP and Vox agreed on the implementation of a so-called "Identity Marks Law", in order to protect values, traditions and customs they consider proper or exclusive to the Valencian culture. They also agreed on cutting all subsidies to cultural associations promoting Catalan culture or anyrhing related to the "catalan countries". This means that PP and Vox commit themselves to the construction of a regional identity that breaks historical and cultural links with Catalonia.  Rightwing parties in Valencia have been always anti-Catalan and deny that Catalan and Valencian are variations of the same language.

[Zinneke]

Tbf it gets more complicated when there are Valencian regionalists who while obviously sympathetic to Catalonia do not wish to identify with it and regret that Catalans are so primordialist in their interpretation of what we all mostly refer to as Catalan now (in it's earlier forms it had a specific term which I forget). You rarely see Dutch people, even their nationalists get testy about Flemish "really being just a dialect of Dutch".

The whole idea that Valencianismo is a conspiracy to divide Paises Catalans driven by some Catalan nationalists is always a bit of a stretch in my mind, they clearly have distinct "state" formations in more contemporary history. Although Valencia could also be upheld as an example of when the Francoists get their grubby hands on a distinct identity to their artificial conception and attempt to wipe out a language.

Vox and PPs goal is to wipe out the use of the language, whether they want to call it Catalan or Valencian. The use of the Catalan term is because the evil Catalufos are now the ultimate Fifth Column, attempting to take over every Spanish region...soon you'll see Vox claiming the Catalufos are endoctrinating Badajoz. Yes, vote for wife beaters, drug cartel frequenters, and corrupt bimbos to ensure your signpost in bum Badajoz isn't in Catalan. Sadly an effective message.

[Velasco]

Tbf it gets more complicated when there are Valencian regionalists who while obviously sympathetic to Catalonia do not wish to identify with it and regret that Catalans are so primordialist in their interpretation of what we all mostly refer to as Catalan now (in it's earlier forms it had a specific term which I forget). You rarely see Dutch people, even their nationalists get testy about Flemish "really being just a dialect of Dutch".

The whole idea that Valencianismo is a conspiracy to divide Paises Catalans driven by some Catalan nationalists is always a bit of a stretch in my mind, they clearly have distinct "state" formations in more contemporary history. Although Valencia could also be upheld as an example of when the Francoists get their grubby hands on a distinct identity to their artificial conception and attempt to wipe out a language.

Vox and PPs goal is to wipe out the use of the language (...)

Pancatalanism is very unpopular in Valencia or the Balearic Islands and the nationalist parties supporting that idea (ERC, CUP) have a marginal presence in those regions. On the other hand, leftwing regionalist parties like Compromís or MÉS support certain 'catalanism' while vindicating their respective identities. I mean, there's a middle ground between claiming that valenciano or mallorquín are 'catalan 'dialects' and the denial of historical and cultural bonds with Catalonia (the claim of blaveristas in Valencia). From a linguistic or philological perspective I think we can say that Catalan and Valencian are variants of the same language in a similar fashion of Galician and Portuguese or Dutch and Flemish. Things become more complicated when identity politics conflate with language, rthat's obvious.

PP and Vox will promote Spanish (Castilian) language in schools at the expense of the ernacular Valencian language, that's for granted. That's by no means the most surprising aspect of the deals between PP and Vox. It's amazing how easily the mainstream conservatives buy the conceptual frameworks of the far-right on issues like gender based violence, as well as their readiness to engage in the same cultural baTtles: barbarism vs civilization

The deals between PP and Vox in Valencia are the prelude of s new political era in Spain. Barbarians at the gate:

"The Valencian blitzkrieg, ending up with a bullfighter as regional minister of culture, is quite real. Profound. It is the political manifesto of Alberto Núñez Feijóo forty days before a general election that will define a new era in Spain"

https://twitter.com/EnricJuliana/status/1669278199895805958?t=qKvjR3kLS4VDbWNuKx...

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/cis_institucion/status/1669663426170191872?s=46&t=bAbNaO...

I want to believe… but I do not.

[Mike88]

Not a bad idea:

https://twitter.com/laSextaTV/status/1669466102089359360

A bar in Seville will give a free beer to everyone who shows that they have voted on 23J

I'm sure that in some, if not a lot, of places in the Peninsula would see a massive surge in turnout because of this.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Not sure what PP was expecting by legitimizing the ultraderecha, now every PP politician has to answer whether they believe violence against women exists (thanks to one of the leaders of Vox Valenciana this is controversial now).

[PSOL]

The difference between NUPES and Sumar+ is that most of NUPES knows that going in bed with En Marche is Electoral suicide, Sumar is going to find out the hard way and subsequently burn to the ground.

Anyone who thinks the People’s Alliance 2.0 isn’t going to win this is surely unable to process information. The real focus many of you should pursue should be on what to do next after the election to salvage the remnants of the Spanish republic.

[mileslunn]

While most likely outcome is PP + Vox get majority, what happens if they fall short?  Since PSOE + Sumar probably more likely to get regional support save perhaps a few, what is minimum PP + Vox need in seats to form government realistically.  If relying on regional ones, does it mean new elections or will enough swing behind one group to ensure a government forms?

[Velasco]

salvage the remnants of the Spanish republic.

I lived in a fantasy where Spain was a constitutional monarchy, but now I can see we are back in 1938 or 1939 trying to resist the advance of the unstoppable Franco's army over Barcelona and Madrid

[Logical]

While most likely outcome is PP + Vox get majority, what happens if they fall short?  Since PSOE + Sumar probably more likely to get regional support save perhaps a few, what is minimum PP + Vox need in seats to form government realistically.  If relying on regional ones, does it mean new elections or will enough swing behind one group to ensure a government forms?

It's a good question. The only regional parties who could plausibly win seats and support a PP-Vox government are UPN and CC. Since UPN and CC will win 2-3 seats, PP and Vox needs to obtain at least 174 seats to be assured of government (in the worst case scenario where UPN + CC wins just 1 seat they need 175). Below that threshold and it starts getting complicated. The Catalan nationalists and left wing regionalists will never support a government with Vox, a far cry from the days when the Convergencia would happily lend their support to Aznar's PP. This leaves us with PNV, who are under great electoral pressure from Bildu. It's very difficult to see them voting for a PP-Vox government but they may be persuaded to abstain with large bribes and assurances that Basque autonomy will not be touched, nonetheless this is still a very tough ask from PNV. If they somehow manage to convince PNV to abstain the threshold is lowered to 171 seats as PNV will win 5-6 seats. If they fall short of that threshold then a repeat election is almost certain.

There is another way however. PSOE could abstain from the investiture vote if PP promises to keeps Vox out of government. But I do not see this happening under Sanchez.