2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1762221723946979346?t=WhyIpMgnpzSxeBh...

[Oryxslayer]

The votes in the Senate are 40-17 Nay. Totally expected.

Now voting on Venue Bill.

[Oryxslayer]

Assembly Defeats the bill 47-99.

So does this IRC map count as the second map for the purposes of the NY state constitution, given that the legislature must reject plans twice before modifying them?

I don't have the detailed info here, but everyone is maneuvering as if the commission no longer has any authority with the defeat of the map. I think it might have to do with the court's timeframe, but again, IDK.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1762221723946979346?t=WhyIpMgnpzSxeBh...

And the venue Bill passed 39-18 in the Senate,

Notably the Dem floor leader made it clear when gaveling out that the conference is going to be deliberating future action tonight...

[Oryxslayer]

The Assembly has posted a map. It will be interesting to see if the senate signs on or diverges like it seemingly wants to.


https://newyork.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=cd&propA=cong_nyirc_20240215&propB=cong_legamend_20240226&selected=-73.77410380901841,40.98053601355112#%26map=6.86/42.844/-77.03

Changes:

NY-03 withdraws from the south Oyster Bay/Massapequa region and some of those suburbs go in NY-02. NY-03 trades them for Huntingdon and NY-01 picks up the parts NY-02 east of Mastic Beach. Makes the marginal NY-01 go from marginally Biden to marginally Trump.

No changes to most of lower NYC, including not giving Jefferies the Barclay center or his house. Probably ensures his disapproval of this one as well.

NY-16 trades Wakefield for Eastchester and Co-op city. Despite the framing of this last night, this probably marginally hurts Bowman. This requires NY-15 dropping some of the south Bronx to NY-14.

Minor changes to NY-17 in Beekman town in Dutchess.

NY-18 still contains all of Orange unlike he IRC map. It gets the rest of Duchess but loses much of the interior of Ulster compared to both previous plans. This is to keep Ny-19 competitive, but one wonders in Ryan would aprove of the outcome coming from Ulster.

Upstate west of Binghampton is the same as the IRC map. East of it though there are changes. NY-20 compacts in Saratoga to grab Amsterdam. NY-19 now goes into Rensselaer.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/aaronnarraph/status/1762526902130978864?t=LFhzv6XSEaPcC_nJdo...

Wild rumors flying about right now, this is just one of them, but the core is the numerous thoughts is that the senate is going to do something different.  As has been noted many times here, the senate is both more 'partisan-loyal' than the House since it has so many comparatively new Dems, and it has colleagues running for congress whose votes are necessary for this thing.

[Oryxslayer]

The House will take up the Senate Venue bill on Wednesday.

Also:

https://twitter.com/YanceyRoy/status/1762577557726105972?t=r_iW0eNW1BYaqWEKZeI9i...

The GOP really shouldn't have their guys saying this. Cause if the Senate does end up aquesing to the House, then the eventual map is good for them. But coming out and revealing this is just poking Jeffries and asking him to once again publically say "anything good for the GOP is bad for us," and demand a harsher product.

[Oryxslayer]

If they're not going to make any changes to NY-17 and Rockland really is a ticking time bomb due to the growing Orthodox population, it might make more sense to just fully shore up Lawler. Rockland, Orange, and Sullivan Counties put together are just slightly more than the population of one CD and they narrowly voted for Trump. Doing this would also shore up Pat Ryan and allow for a bluer seat to be drawn to get rid of Molinaro.

Another thing I was thinking about -- there is a lot of talk about what part of Brooklyn and/or Manhattan to put with Staten Island...but if Dems really want to go aggressive, couldn't they just split Staten Island? Put some of it with Brooklyn (connection via the Verrazzano-Narrows bridge) and some of it with Lower Manhattan (connection via the ferry).

The would have to nuke the 2% law to do that. This would be evidence for partisan motive for COA. I am not sure if the house want to risk that.

This proposal already goes above 2% for the districts they change. They are de facto ignoring it.

[Oryxslayer]

Hochul signed a message of necessity this morning,  which is part of the justification for the Dem legislature to railroad their own map.  Never mind that the timetable was seemingly purposefully stalled for NY-03.

Also, this bill was filled:

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1762863198632391018?t=U2BlyAKckdjgL0I...

[Oryxslayer]

Wait, so they're voting on it already without the Senate drawing up a map? Is this expected to pass?

State Senate has not returned to session yet. The House is moving first. Right now the debate is on the Venue bill.

Senate could have already OK'ed the map. Or they could have their own plans once the House acts. or they could amend the bill sent to them with their own changes and toss things back. I'm not sure if anything has come publicly from the bodies leaders or actors since passing the Venue bill.

So Dems gain 1 in AL, 1 in LA, 2 in NY (03 and 22). Rs gain 3 seats in NC. Georgia is redrawn but doesn't really make a difference. So it looks like redistricting this cycle is a wash.

There are still a few states with unresolved redistricting lawsuits (e.g. UT, WI) which have the potential to net Democrats more seats (the two states I mentioned here have the potential to net them up to 3 seats combined).

I wouldn't put much faith on UT. The expectation was the opinion was delayed for the special election, but now things are historically extremely abnormal. I suspect how they are squaring the circle is ordering changes but so late that it can't apply for 2024.

[Oryxslayer]

NY Senate passed their bill and is adjourning until next week. Some Republicans voted for it.

Highly likely that means this is over.

[Oryxslayer]

What was even the point of this whole song and dance? It’s not like NY-03 and NY-22 were out of reach for Dems under the special master map. This whole thing was just a huge waste of time and energy.

That's no doubt how the semi-permeant politicians in the House and some parts of the Senate Coalition viewed things.

Like everyone watching this expected there to be some nefarious scheme and radical map shifts. Including me. But the activist groups, DC politicians, and Albany policies were seemingly on very different wavelengths. Like the only way this map doesn't get signed by Hochul is if Jefferies once again says No. And in that very unlikely scenario, we once again would see the divergences which got us here.

[Oryxslayer]

That moment when Atlas realizes that NY Dems care more about keeping incumbents happy and aren't obsessed with making the map blue.

Nah, I think everyone who was drawing maps here was acting under these assumptions - or at least I was - but still found many ways to make things bluer. The incumbents had their ideal districts radically transformed two years ago after all. They barely even touched NYC where the incumbents are. Like Jefferies clearly wanted the Barclays center on the IRC map but didn't get it on this map. If the Incumbents mattered in this regard, it was to just not give them several hundred thousand new constituents. Which in that way, the legislature's lack of care likely mattered more.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway in terms of ratings Sabato is planning to move D'Esposito and Williams to lean D, which more or less makes sense.

Williams was the only one really targeted and clearly with the purpose of getting Mannion elected. He also had the worst result comparatively in 2022.

D'Esposito meanwhile didn't see serious changes to his district, but he of all 435 reps holds the district most out of line with his partisan identity, both D and R. It's also going to be a district Biden wins again barring some massive shift of voter behavior, by how much, who knows right now. And D'Esposito is acting less like his compatriots and more like past 'wave babies/driftwood.'

NY-03 and Suozzi meanwhile goes to Likely D. They cite his consistent strength and redistricting making the seat even better.

All other seats remain where they were. NY-17 and 19 are tossups now and stay that way. NY-19 changed a lot in redistricting but the result is going from 51.1-46.6 Biden to 51.1-46.7 Biden. Maybe IMO it's a tiny bit better for Molinario than on paper cause he has more Republicans in the east of the seat than the west, and the Dem will be from Binghampton. NY-01 is likely R and NY-02 Safe R. The Dems have a better challenger in NY-01 but IMO NY-02 should probably be at Likely R as well.

[Oryxslayer]

Heres a epiloge to the process which I think matters. In the past two days since the unveiling of the map and it's approval, the two (ex)state senators in tricker races have suspended their campaigns. Gaughran in the 1st cited the removal of many of the areas he once represented from the seat. And now Thomas is exiting from the 4th, even though it likely means he must retire from the senate under (the delayed once cause of master redistricting) the residency requirements. 

Of the two still in Mannion got what he wanted, seemingly cause everyone doesn't want Sarah Hood. And Kennedy in 26 may have similarly been ignored,  we won't know until his primary.

Overall,  it's a sign that the senate was expecting something more partisan and with their interests in mind. Then they got sidelined.

https://twitter.com/_rebeccaclewis/status/1763258094488805798?t=FcZhHLzWcZ6R047O...