Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[emailking]

Very excited to see how this turns out tonight. I have ordered pizza and a cookie brownie to arrive 1 hour after poll close which is when  I hope the results will start getting exciting.

[emailking]

central

[emailking]

Guys look at the time series for the predicted margin/win percentage on the NYT page. Wild swings all night. Don't get hopes too high because at one point in time it has Jones at > 2

Sure but it can swing wildly while still being accurate at any given point.

[emailking]

NYTimes had it at 90% Jones at +8.3 for a second

Now back to +4.6

Moore in the lead by about 4% with 50% in

I think it's fair to say that if Jones fails to come back Nate Cohn will have lost most of his credibility tonight

No? 90% != 100%

[emailking]

I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn off that warning in your personal settings. I did that a long time ago.

Damn. Been here for three years and just found that out.

13 for me.

[emailking]

NY Times has Jones >95% chance to win.

[emailking]

Wish MSNBC would call it so they can stop pretending like it's technically uncertain.

[emailking]

Also means Jones can vote his conscious instead of trying to cater to a conservative state.

[emailking]

Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.

Even if a recount is triggered, I think it's incredibly unlikely that it could overturn this margin.

[emailking]

Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.

Even if a recount is triggered, I think it's incredibly unlikely that it could overturn this margin.

You sure they won't simply "lose" votes or "find" new ones?

That happens in every recount. My knowledge of that was factored into my conclusion.

[emailking]

As happy as I am I can't shake the fact that half of the state voted for a man who had considerable evidence showing that he was predatory against underage women all because he had an R next to his name.

Yeah, this is just a minimum threshold good thing but still a positive result.

I thought write in had to have won or be within recount territory of winning to get counted. You're not supposed to write in someone that's on the ballot.

[emailking]

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Provisionals + military ballots. We'll see how they turn out.

Count every ballot, amiright.

Count 'em yeah. Just not very likely they're gonna get it to the threshold.