2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

There has also been a seeming outlier poll putting Labour "only" about 10 points ahead?

Curia (National’s in house pollster) has a poll out from a few days ago with Labour at 47, National at 36, Greens at 6, and ACT at 3. Funny how that’s 1% above the result Collins had previously said would be the end of her leadership.

I'm sure that is a complete coincidence. Not

Always good to treat internals with a bit of skepticism!

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I saw that there was a poll of the Northland Electorate on Wiki that hasn’t been mentioned here:

Q+A Colmar Brunton
29 July - 4 August

Matt King (National) 46%
Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) 31%
Shane Jones (NZ First) 15%
Darleen Hoff-Nielsen (Green) 3%
Mel Taylor (New Conservative Party) 2%
Mark Cameron (ACT) 1%

Not looking good for NZ First.

Source

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I saw that there was a poll of the Northland Electorate on Wiki that hasn’t been mentioned here:

Q+A Colmar Brunton
29 July - 4 August

Matt King (National) 46%
Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) 31%
Shane Jones (NZ First) 15%
Darleen Hoff-Nielsen (Green) 3%
Mel Taylor (New Conservative Party) 2%
Mark Cameron (ACT) 1%

Not looking good for NZ First.

Source

Oh yeah, that basically confirms my instinct that this race is overrated and NZ First won't be saved by an electorate if they get below 5%. Also interesting were the party vote numbers, 41% Labour-38% National (it was 46% National-30% Labour in 2017). On a uniform swing that implies 48% Labour nationwide to 36% National. I'm not sure whether the swing to Labour would be higher or lower than nationwide in this relatively rural conservative electorate. It's probably lower given that if these uniform swing numbers were in a nationwide poll, it would be considered a good poll for National.

I wonder if part of the good numbers for National are from folks who had been NZ First voters. NZ First did almost twice as well in Northland as their nationwide average.

Speaking of NZ First, I think even WINston would have troubles winning the electorate with 2% in the national party vote.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

What are the changes on that poll compared with the last election?

Matt King gained 7.7% from 2017
Willow-Jean Prime gained 9.4% from 2017
Shane Jones declined by 19.8% compared to Winston Peters in 2017

The minor parties are insignificant, but can be found here.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Poll like thing of Chinese New Zealanders

62% National (-9 since 2017)
21% Labour (little change since 2017)
~9% ACT (+~9 since 2017)

Not really the greatest, but still some interesting stats.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Don’t the Greens usually do quite well in Roy Morgan polls?

It’s hilarious to see ACT above the 5% threshold.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

The delay may prove to be fortuitous for the Greens if people forget about the school scandal by mid-October rather than the Saturday after next.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Seems to be in line with a lot of the previous polling we’ve seen. National being under 30 would be amazing. Collins will probably get the boot by the end of the year if that holds.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

We got a Maori electorate poll!

Te Tai Hauāuru electorate
(western North Island, eg New Plymouth, Whanganui, and Palmerston North)

Party Preference
Labour 51%
Maori 10%
National 4%
Green 4%
NZ First 3%
ACT 2%
TOP 1%

Candidate Preference
Adrian Rurawhe (Labour) 38%
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer (Maori) 20%
Noeline Apiata (Advance) 1%

Still lots of undecideds, especially for the local candidates.

Edit: Here’s the history of the electorate:
1996 - Tuku Morgan (NZ First, then Mauri Pacific)
1999 - Nanaia Mahuta (Labour) (incumbent came in third; Labour gain)
2002 - Tariana Turia (Labour) (incumbent changed electorates; open seat)
2004-By - Tariana Turia (Maori) (incumbent left Labour and contested by-election with new party; Maori gain)
2005 - Tariana Turia (Maori)
2008 - Tariana Turia (Maori)
2011 - Tariana Turia (Maori)
2014 - Adrian Rurawhe (Labour) (incumbent retired; open seat, Labour gain)
2017 - Adrian Rurawhe (Labour)

The Maori Party has managed to keep the electorate race somewhat close, and they may do better than polling suggests, given the high number of undecideds. Rurawhe is the great-grandson of T. W. Ratana, the founder of the Ratana Church, a Maori-inspired Christian denomination with about 45,000 members, or about 1% of NZ.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Also, the nail in the coffin probably came for NZ First yesterday. Two people (name suppression is being used, which is pretty common here) have been charged by the Serious Fraud Office over the NZ First Foundation, which was funnelling donations to the party in a dodgy way to get around electoral laws. Winston tried to suppress the announcement until after the election, but failed.

Good night, sweet prince. I’ll miss WINston’s meme magic.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Fubart Solman’s Prediction

Labour   47.4%   62 Seats
National 29.9%   39 Seats
ACT         7.4%   10 Seats
Greens     6.9%    9 Seats

NZ First 3.2%
NCP 1.6%
TOP 1.2%
Māori 0.9%
Advance NZ 0.7%
Others 0.8%

A “wasted” vote of 8.4%. I’m pretty sure there’s only going to be 4 parties in Parliament, with ACT in 3rd and the Greens in 4th. I think Labour will squeak by with a majority of seats due to only effectively needing a majority of 91.6% of the votes (so, 45.8%) rather than the full 50%.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anyway, for my prediction. Hopefully this is pretty accurate, I'm going a bit bold with some stuff.
Labour-46%
National-30%
ACT-8%
Green-6%
NZ First-4%

*I hope National's party vote ends up with a '2' in front of it. 29.9% would be emotionally more satisfying than 30.1%.

Not gonna lie, I fiddled with the numbers a bit for my prediction to give them that 2.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Are all Māori electorates Safe Labour?
What use has the Māori Party anymore?

By the way: I agree with Pericles and Fubart Solman about the emotional satisfaction of National getting <30%

I’m not sure I’d call the Māori electorates safe Labour, but I think Labour will win all of them.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Jacinda and the Labour Party should still be cruising to victory, right? I haven't been catching up much with this election for the past 2 or months.

Basically it’s a question whether or not Labour will be able to govern on their own. That hasn’t happened under MMP (since the 1996 election).

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

How quickly will results roll in?  I don't believe New Zealand uses exit polls so for those of us on West Coast of North America, poll closes at 11PM Friday, so by 2AM will we have a good idea of final results?

I believe that they could start counting early votes this morning. It sounded like those should come in pretty quickly after 11 PM. Special votes won’t be in for a while (as in a week or something iirc). Those usually lean a bit to the left.

I’m glad that I’ll be able to see at least the initial results come in before bed time too.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

13.5% Reporting, with Labour at 50.4% and Swarbrick leading in Auckland Central.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

THE NATIONAL PARTY'S TWITTER PAGE HAS GONE PRIVATE LMAOOOOOOOO

B. T. F. O.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Wow, this is a massively historic win for Labour. They’re the first party to win a majority under MMP. Still waiting on special votes and thus the final results, of course, but this majority should hold.

The Greens has one of their better nights as well. The only other times that they hit 10 or more seats was when Labour was especially weak, so this is an excellent result for them given Labour’s obvious strength. I cannot over emphasize how big Swarbrick’s win in Auckland Central is. Sure, the Greens don’t need an electorate to win, but winning one is a massive feather in their cap.

A third party had a great night too. ACT went from under a percent and only holding Epsom (thanks to a deal with National) to being equivalent to the Greens’ results: 1 electorate and 9 list members. The next three years will be very important for ACT: Will they manage to hold on, or will they collapse under their own success? I don’t think that any of the nine list members have any prior parliamentary experience, so it could be a sh*tshow.

Amazingly, a fourth party had an excellent night as well. I don’t think anyone predicted that the Māori Party would gain a seat. I myself had guessed that they wouldn’t and would in fact be heading the way of Mana before too long. Instead, they gained an electorate despite a Labour landslide. I think it’s even more shocking than Swarbrick winning Auckland Central. Last time Labour swept through Maori electorates with over 10% less of the party vote and yet, somehow the Māori Party pulled it off.

Edit: I guess you could say that I thought the Māori Party was dead in the foreshore and seabed water.

This was a historic drubbing for National. They did worse than I expected and several big names lost their electorates. I don’t see Collins lasting long. Their twitter account went private. They’re in shambles.

Perhaps the only party that did worse than National was NZ First. I’m thinking this might be the end of WINston’s long career in parliament. He’s 75 and will be 78 at the next election. I don’t think that NZ First will survive either; it always was something of a personality cult around WINston.

The minor right wing conspiracy parties were BTFO as I expected.

TOP managed to hold on to over a percent despite me not hearing anything about them this campaign. I could understand voting for them last time, but this time?

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I see that National won the party vote in Epsom, but what were the other three that they won in?

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Not sure if this is usually the case, but I thought it was interesting that the South Island was to the left of the North Island.

https://twitter.com/haydendonnell/status/1317716984730165248?s=21

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

When can we expect some referendum news?

And for that matter, when will we see the full results of the general, including advance votes?

The advance votes are included in what was already reported. I think today (the 27th in NZ) is the deadline for special votes, but I’m not sure if they’ll be reported today or if we’ll have to wait on them.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Euthanasia

65.2 in favor
33.8 against
1.0 “informal”

Marijuana

53.1 against
46.1 in favor
0.8 “informal”

Beaten not once, but twice. Damn. Glad I’m not the only one interested though.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Special Votes are in

Labour +1
Maori +1
National -2

Swarbrick keeps Auckland Central.

Weed is still illegal.

https://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/

Labour broke 50%, reaching 50.01% lol

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Great election results. It looks like Labour got the most party votes everywhere except Epsom. Once this is confirmed with a new map I need to update my sig lol.

Hahahaha! That’s what I get for having signatures off! I never would have known if you hadn’t said anything!