The Butterfly effect is not possible in all situations. A "second-order counterfactual" is possible in some. Perhaps Hitler, yes. Perhaps, not losing the "lost order" yes. But If, let's say, we got a Republican President Roosevelt in 1912 it would not have made much of a difference. WW1 might have ended sooner, but we would have got a Anti-Roosevelt Republican in 1920, and they would govern until 1932, when we get FDR.
That's cool to have so much assurance in knowing what would have been the past if...
It was just a guess, and an example. That scenario would be likely.