Virginia 2005 Gubernatorial Election

[AuH2O]

Kilgore faces a primary challenge from Gerald Fitch, whose really a remarkable guy that's done wonders for Warrenton as mayor. Very interesting background. Kilgore is a huge favorite of course.

I'm not sure what I think of Kaine as a candidate. I think he won because of Warner's coattails, at least in part, and Kilgore is a much stronger candidate than Earley. Potts kind of screws the pooch a bit but hopefully he'll fall flat on his face.

[AuH2O]

Potts running hard to the left... lol, hilarious. Democrats think a 3rd party will again deliver them to victories they otherwise would not have, but then it backfires! Bigtime. And I bet a lot of Democrats helped Potts get on the ballot, too. Oops.

Kilgore should win this easily.

[AuH2O]

Debates are scheduled. Read the thread.

[AuH2O]

The fact MD had Potts at 9% was enough to show me their poll was a little questionable. Not bad, but probably not very accurate.

Kilgore up 5 or 6 sounds about right.


Also, Rasmussen has Warner at 67% approval, still very high but I think MD's poll was Dem-happy (74%? don't think so), also explaining the dead heat result.

Keep in mind, Warner had run a serious and expensive campaign for Senate in 1996. Kaine was only elected Lt. Gov. on Warner's coattails, and he almost lost anyway. Really no reason to think he is a heavyweight politically.

[AuH2O]

I actually think the single-term limit makes Governors of Virginia more popular in general, because their actions are harder to portray as political self-interest.

The AG position is much more important than the Lt. Gov. post, and that's reason #2 Kilgore has an edge over Kaine, behind being a Republican. Kaine was never very visible so there was no association between him and Warner in any meaningful way. Warner also had the previous statewide run and a lot of other connections Kaine doesn't have.

Doesn't seem odd to me at all that Kaine is losing. Potts' role is overrated... I imagine he draws his own sort of support that traditionally is divided between the Dems and GOP, often on a per-election basis. The more even the division, the less it matters how much support Potts gets. He could get 20% and it might not matter. He won't... my guess is 5%, up to 8% or so.

[AuH2O]

Yeah, real necessary. Now VA has a budget surplus. I strongly dislike Warner.

[AuH2O]

Gilmore just happened to be Governor during a recession.

The reality is that Mark Warner promised not to raise taxes, then raised them, and then there was a budget surplus. That's, at the very least, dishonest.

Virginia already spends plenty on education and transportation. The problem is that, especially with regard to transportation, it's spent stupidly, and Warner was at the forefront of the idiot brigade on some of those issues.

[AuH2O]

That's because he put up the road spending bills to referendum and the bad ones lost... so while he supported them they didn't go into effect, and there was no backlash.

Because of the single term limit, the GOP has never really tried to light Warner up anyway. Any Virginia Governor in good economic times will be popular (Allen was as well).

Splits in the GOP also gave Warner cover-- the tax increase was aided by leftist Republicans (which it has to be given the GOP's domination of the legislature) so Warner himself was not really blamed. Even in the ad campaigns against the increase the legislators were more the target than Warner because they have to run again.

Not that jfern knows anything about VA politics, other than Warner is a liberal Democrat playing moderate and thus a 2008 hopeful for his beleaguered party.

[AuH2O]

Trust me, Warner is liberal. jfern and his ilk obviously think so, otherwise they wouldn't support him. I have connections to his administration and, at least socially, the guy is understood to be liberal.

As Hillary's VP candidate, Warner will not carry VA, which is all that matters anyway. If he doesn't even get that gig, he'll probably run another race of some kind (Governor again, Senate).

But should he do that, the groups he's pissed off will actually go up against him, rather than just sitting it out (teacher's union, antitax groups, etc.).

[AuH2O]

A member of his cabinet is a family friend, and I also was somewhat active in that campaign (for Earley of course) and talked to some officials about it.

Communists would not be advocating a Warner candidacy if he really was this super-moderate Democrat.

[AuH2O]

No, because they think the whole country is as liberal as they are. They want a liberal that LOOKS moderate.

[AuH2O]

Latest poll, Kilgore leads 48-43-3.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0d9694a4-37cd-4431-93e1-48ec1ae41681

Note this poll actually oversampled Democrats, but Kilgore leads among "moderates" (35-34) and is only down 2 amongst those that "never' attend church (!!). ouch. [though that is Potts' strength, if you can all 5% a strength] Kilgore also leads in all age groups except 50-64.

If those numbers are close to correct, Kilgore will easily win. Both candidates are holding their bases but there are more Republicans.

[AuH2O]

Whatever. Kaine is totally doneski.

[AuH2O]

Maybe Democrats should wake up and realize Kaine sucks. Warner wanted him to be the Lt. Gov. nominee to help in Richmond, that's all.

[AuH2O]

Kaine is the better debater and speaker but Kilgore probably won on the issues (I just stopped watching).

Illegal Immigration: Kilgore
Death Penalty: Kilgore
Affirmative Action: Kilgore
Transportation: Draw
Gas Tax issue: Draw
Abortion: Draw
Record/Experience: Kilgore

Style: Kaine

It's not that Kilgore out-debated Kaine; it's that topics were brought up where Kilgore is more in line with public opinion. Kaine's answers were better constructed across the board.

[AuH2O]

I thought Kaine's biggest weakness was affirmative action. Kilgore wasn't going to rake in black votes anyway... I can not even begin to tell you the amount of anger there is at the public university system in Virginia over affirmative action. Speaking in favor of it like that might have cost Kaine tens of thousands of votes instantly.

Kaine also replied weakly to his F rating by the NRA and came across as an asshole. Kilgore just came across as a bad debater who struggles to string together coherent responses, and who is repetitive and perhaps prone to making unfair accusations against his opponent.

Kilgore should have done a better job of at least noting that being AG is a real job, whereas Lt. Gov. is a complete joke. That, along with his ideology fitting the voting public better, is his main strength.

Kaine "won" the debate, I guess, but what really matters is how people vote on election day. Right now I'd say Kilgore is a 3-4 point favorite.

[AuH2O]

The "Kelly" ad is not misleading from what I can tell. And it mixes in illegal immigration- where Kaine is weak and Kilgore strong.

The "Stanley" ad is amazingly powerful, but it certainly does not tell the whole story. Illegally buying drugs does not make one a legitimate target for murder, however.

Kaine is totally doneski IMO. Death penalty, taxes, illegal immigration... no way someone to the extreme left on all three is going to win in VA.

[AuH2O]

Don't underestimate McDonnell.

[AuH2O]

Personally, I'd rather win the election than be ahead by 2% in a poll, but hey, Kaine should be glad he's in it at all.

[AuH2O]

Be careful what you wish for.

[AuH2O]

none. Papers tend to be leftist in VA (the Pilot especially), so conservatives and moderates don't care, and otherwise they're preaching to the choir.

[AuH2O]

Kilgore was fined? Who knew.