Virginia 2005 Gubernatorial Election

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And here are the websites of the various candidates, including Russell Potts, a centrist Republican who is running as an independent in the upcoming gubernatorial election:

Democrats


Tim Kaine for Governor

http://www.kaine2005.org/home.php

Leslie Byrne for Lt. Governor

http://www.lesliebyrne.org/site/PageServer

Creigh Deeds for Attorney General

http://www.creighdeeds.com/
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Republicans


Jerry Kilgore for Governor

http://www.kilgore2005.com

Bill Bolling for Lt. Governor

http://www.billbolling.com/

'Bob' McDonnell for Attorney General

http://www.bobmcdonnell.com/
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Independent/Third Party candidate


Russell Potts, Jr. for Governor

http://www.russpotts.com/main.cfm

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Potts to Run for Va. Governor
GOP Maverick Plans An Independent Bid

By Michael D. Shear
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, February 25, 2005; Page B01

RICHMOND, Feb. 24 -- Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr., a Republican from Winchester, plans to announce Friday morning that he is mounting an independent bid for governor but will not formally leave the party he says is gripped by conservative social issues and anti-tax rhetoric.

Potts, an irascible politician who has become a voice of the GOP moderates as chairman of the Senate's Education and Health Committee, has scheduled a news conference at the State Capitol to announce his decision.

He declined to comment publicly Thursday, but aides and colleagues said Potts has informed them that he is certain to run as an "independent Republican" in the 2005 campaign.

"He is a good man, and he is a candidate. He is a natural," said Thomas J. D'Amore Jr., a senior campaign adviser to Potts who worked for Lowell P. Weicker Jr., a former U.S. senator and Connecticut governor. "Is it a long shot? You bet. You can expect a really good fight and a good deal of good sportsmanship."

His entry will transform the Virginia governor's campaign into a three-way race between Potts and the two likely major-party candidates, former attorney general Jerry W. Kilgore (R) and Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D).

Some political observers said Potts could hand the race to Kaine if enough voters see the Winchester senator as an alternative to Kilgore's conservative policies.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A51590-2005Feb24.html

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just to revive this thread:

how well do you all think Kaine would do against Kilgore?

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Latest poll, Kilgore leads 48-43-3.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0d9694a4-37cd-4431-93e1-48ec1ae41681

Note this poll actually oversampled Democrats, but Kilgore leads among "moderates" (35-34) and is only down 2 amongst those that "never' attend church (!!). ouch. [though that is Potts' strength, if you can all 5% a strength] Kilgore also leads in all age groups except 50-64.

If those numbers are close to correct, Kilgore will easily win. Both candidates are holding their bases but there are more Republicans.

This election is a wash -it will depend ultimately on two factors, the balance of which in the mind of Virginia voters will affect who becomes the next governor of Virginia:

1. The tax increases advocated by Gov. Mark Warner and passed by the Republican-dominated legislature (especially with the help of the state Senate) on sales and income to increase funding for education, health care, and public safety (among other popular programs), which have proved surprisingly popular (or at least acceptable) to a majority of Virginians, and which have not adversely affected Warner's approval ratings.

-or-

2. The skyrocketing property tax assessment rates especially in Northern Virginia, combined with high gas prices (therefore making any chance of a gas tax increase to fund transportation projects next to impossible), both of which Kilgore could use to his advantage and reawaken the traditonally strong anti-tax sentiment that had long propelled his party to eventually capture the both houses of the General Assembly, and subsequently dominate Virginia beginning in the late 1990s.
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Either way, taxes and high gas prices will be the singularly most important factors that will determine who will become the next governor of Virginia.  Illegal immigration -and by extension, gang violence among younger Latinos- while an important issue in the outlying suburbs of Northern Virginia, will not be that big of an issue throughout the rest of the state compared to the issues I have already enumerated.

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How is the Lt. Gubernatorial race shaping up?

I have no polls I can point to right now, but it is expected that Bill Bolling will win the Lt. Governor's race over Leslie Byrne relatively easily, much more so than either Kilgore or O'Donnell (running for Attorney General).

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How are the Attorny General and Lt. Governor races shaping up?

I'm not so sure about the Attorney General's race, but Bill Bolling (the Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor) is widely expected to beat the Democrat Leslie Byrne soundly in November.  The contest between her and Bolling is one of a traditional liberal versus a traditional conservative.  This being Virginia, it is self-evident what the result will be.     

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How are the Attorny General and Lt. Governor races shaping up?

Deeds (the Democratic AG candidate) was endorsed by the NRA.

Yes, and for that reason that may be the one top seat we may be best able to win next month. 

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How are the Attorny General and Lt. Governor races shaping up?

I'm not so sure about the Attorney General's race, but Bill Bolling (the Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor) is widely expected to beat the Democrat Leslie Byrne soundly in November.  The contest between her and Bolling is one of a traditional liberal versus a traditional conservative.  This being Virginia, it is self-evident what the result will be.     

The LT Governor runs independent? How silly.

What are you talking about?

Don't underestimate McDonnell.

I'm not. 

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Frodo,

Does the governor and lt governor run on the same ticket or are they seperate?

So that's what you meant.....

As MHS2002 has said, they are elected separately -not in partisan sets.  Virginia has had in the past a mix of Republicans and Democrats in these top three seats in the executive branch. 

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Some interesting news...  According to some sources Warner has pulled the plug on Kaine for Governor.

From Outside The Beltway:

We have learned here at CW, from sources involved with the General Assembly and close to a high ranking Warner administration official, some amazing news.

At the Governor's senior staff meeting this morning, the decision was made to "pull the plug" on Tim Kaine's campaign. No more will Warner assist the Kaine campaign in major ways. No more public appearances, etc.

According to our sources, Warner is said to have no interest in seeing to fruition, a Tim Kaine Administration. Aides apparently believe that a Kaine administration would steal the limelight from potential Presidential candidate, Gov. Mark Warner. Stay tuned...this should be interesting.

Until this rumor is backed up by a legitimate mainstream news-source like the Richmond Times-Dispatch or the Washington Post, it will remain just that -a rumor.   

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I'm going home to Virginia to vote this weekend.  For all those predicting a sure Kilgore victory, I'm not so sure.

Who are you going to vote for?

Kaine, of course.  The only thing I agree with Kilgore on is the illegal immigration issue, but aside from that I don't see anything that he plans to offer that will help Virginia. 

Are there any candidates that you would most likely vote for at either the Lt. Governor or Attorney General levels?

Speaking for myself as a fellow Virginian, I keep going back and forth.  Like you, I have every intention of voting for Kaine, but I am less certain for those farther down the line.  I am currently leaning towards voting for Creigh Deeds for Attorney General, but I am still open to Bob McDonnell. 

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I'm going home to Virginia to vote this weekend.  For all those predicting a sure Kilgore victory, I'm not so sure.  I believe it'll be a toss-up, and Kaine still has a chance to pull it off.  However, I will not be shocked if Kaine loses.

I'm curious, why do you feel you have to vote in person rather than simply vote absentee?  You can vote absentee like I did when I went to college at the University of Washington in Seattle. 

And on a separate note, I know you are currently attending college in New York, but where in Virginia do you live (or rather, your parents)?  Who is your congressman?

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Arent the Democrats expected to make nice gains in the legislature?

The districts are so heavily gerrymandered that it is highly unlikely that either side will make gains in upcoming elections.  At best, there could be a two or three seat swing. 

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Nick is talking about the state legislature.

Yes, I know that. 

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Oh, I was just curious because I read on a couple different blogs that the Dem's are expected to make nice gains in Northern VA.

I am sure they're right in that Democrats will continue to slowly but steadily chip away at the Republican majority -just don't expect anything dramatic to change in the legislature in the meantime.  The Republicans will continue to rule both houses of the legislature by more than two to one margins, and barring any titanic shifts nationally, it will likely remain that way for the forseeable future.   

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Did you guys hear about that Republican candidate Chris Craddock that made crazy comments about homosexuals and AIDS in Africa?

Nope, can't say I have. 

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Do any of you read VaConservative blog?

No, not really.  My main sources of news about Virginia, Northern Virginia, and my county comes from the Washington Post, the Arlington Connection and Sun Gazette, and -ever so rarely- the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

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Also, for those voting in the race, post your votes:

Governor: Jerry Kilgore (R)
Lt. Governor: Bill Bolling (R)
Attorney General: Creigh Deeds (D)

The other races were the local House of Delegates seat and local Board of Supervisors seats, which were uncontested.

Governor: Tim Kaine (D)
Lt. Governor: Leslie Byrne (D) -reluctantly
Attorney General: Creigh Deeds (D)

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The Richmond Times-Dispatch poll that has just come out today shows Kaine and Kilgore in a dead-heat with a slight lean towards Kaine:
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Latest poll tips toward Kaine
With race too close to call, he, Kilgore focuses on mobilizing voters

BY JEFF E. SCHAPIRO
TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER
   
Nov 4, 2005

The Virginia governor's race is heading toward a photo finish.

Democrat Timothy M. Kaine has inched to a 1 percentage point lead over Republican Jerry W. Kilgore in the latest Times-Dispatch Poll, which showed Kilgore up by 2 percentage points two weeks ago.

Kaine is pulling 45 percent; Kilgore, 44 percent. Independent H. Russell Potts Jr. has faded to 4 percent. Seven percent are undecided.

The Kaine-Kilgore contest can be viewed as a statistical dead heat because Kaine's edge is within the poll's margin of error, 4 percentage points in either direction.

The newspaper's fourth and final survey of the hard-fought, neck-and-neck campaign provides few clues to its outcome. One potentially telling finding: Independent voters are breaking solidly to Kaine.

Also, the Richmond area home to both major candidates could prove decisive. Kilgore, who moved to Henrico from his native Southwest Virginia, is barely ahead here, leading Kaine, a former Richmond mayor, by 2 percentage points.

With no clear leader, the election could come down to voter mobilization -- in campaign parlance, "callin' and haulin.'"

source