CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Gass3268]

2018 Congressional Primary Calendar (Poll Closing Times - Eastern Time):

Texas: Mar 6 (8:00 PM | 9:00 PM)

Illinois: March 20 (8:00 PM)

Indiana: May 8 (6:00 PM | 7:00 PM)
North Carolina: May 8 (7:30 PM)
Ohio: May 8 (7:30 PM)
West Virginia: May 8 (7:30 PM)

Idaho: May 15 (10:00 PM | 11:00 PM)
Nebraska: May 15 (9:00 PM)
Oregon: May 15 (10:00 PM | 11:00 PM)
Pennsylvania: May 15 (8:00 PM)

Arkansas: May 22 (8:30 PM)
Georgia: May 22 (7:00 PM)
Kentucky: May 22 (6:00 PM | 7:00 PM)
Texas (Runoff): May 22 (8:00 PM | 9:00 PM)

Alabama: June 5 (8:00 PM)
California: June 5 (11:00 PM) (Still Counting - little over 274K votes left to count)
Iowa: June 5 (10:00 PM)
Mississippi: June 5 (8:00 PM)
Montana: June 5 (10:00 PM)
New Jersey: June 5 (8:00 PM)
New Mexico: June 5 (9:00 PM)
South Dakota: June 5 (8:00 PM | 9:00 PM)

Maine: June 12 (8:00 PM)
Nevada: June 12 (10:00 PM)
North Dakota: June 12 (10:00 PM | 11:00 PM)
South Carolina: June 12 (7:00 PM)
Virginia: June 12 (7:00 PM)

Arkansas (Runoff): June 19 (8:30 PM)
District of Columbia: June 19 (8:00 PM)

Colorado: June 26 (9:00 PM)
Maryland: June 26 (8:00 PM)
Mississippi (Runoff): June 26 (8:00 PM)
New York: June 26 (9:00 PM)
Oklahoma: June 26 (8:00 PM)
South Carolina (Runoff): June 26 (7:00 PM)
Utah: June 26 (10:00 PM)

Alabama (Runoff): July 17 (8:00 PM)

Georgia (Runoff): July 24 (7:00 PM)

Tennessee: Aug. 2 (Thursday) (8:00 PM)

Kansas: Aug. 7 (8:00 | 9:00 PM)
Michigan: Aug. 7 (8:00 | 9:00 PM)
Missouri: Aug. 7 (8:00 PM)
Washington: Aug. 7 (11:00 PM)

Hawaii: Aug. 11 (Saturday) (12:00 AM)

Connecticut: Aug. 14 (8:00 PM)
Minnesota: Aug. 14 (9:00 PM)
Vermont: Aug. 14 (7:00 PM)
Wisconsin: Aug. 14 (9:00 PM)

Alaska: Aug. 21 (12:00 AM | 1:00 AM)
Wyoming: Aug. 21 (9:00 PM)

Arizona: Aug. 28 (10:00 PM)
Florida: Aug. 28 (7:00 | 8:00 PM)
Oklahoma (Runoff): Aug. 28 (8:00 PM)

Massachusetts: Sept. 4 (8:00 PM)

Delaware: Sept. 6 (8:00 PM)

New Hampshire: Sept. 11 (8:00 PM)


Rhode Island: Sept. 12 (Wednesday) (8:00 PM)

Louisiana: Nov. 6 (9:00 PM)

Louisiana (Runoff): Dec. 8 (9:00 PM)

Link To New York Times Results Page

Link to Previous Thread

[Gass3268]

Looks like the other thread got locked for size. Here is another thread.

[Gass3268]

6/5 will be the busiest days yet!

There is no way that California won't be done counting votes until weeks after June 5.

[Gass3268]

Considering the other thread got locked, can this one get stickied?

[Gass3268]

I don't think we'll see any R-R or D-D races outside of the PVI+20 districts. Voters are at least somewhat strategic.

Maybe CA-48, but the other two should be fine.

That’s the one I’m slightly concerned about

Looks like the DCCC agrees

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/999690741302616066

[Gass3268]

Currently a little over one million mail-in ballots have been turned in.
http://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/

Democrats: 44%
Republicans 33%
No Party Preference: 18%
Other: 4%

A further look at the current numbers shows that Republicans have a turn in advantage in every city in Orange County except Santa Ana, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Seal Beach and Stanton. Buena Park currently is tied percentage wise. Orange County Republicans seem to be motivated to vote. Republicans hold a large advantage in CA-39 (+12), CA-45 (+16) and CA-48 (+11). They hold a narrow margin in CA-49 (+2).

Well, they do have a registration advantage down there. We won't know till the polls close whether those Reps are as loyal to their congressman as they were to Trump in 2016.

This is a good point. It reminds me of AZ-06 where everyone assumed it was a Lesko landslide because of how big the partisan differential was.

[Gass3268]

RRH has a Google Sheet showing the raw data

One thing to note is it appears that the % of voters with no party registration seems to be up.

Also this:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1000049350297440257

[Gass3268]

^is this compared to the 2016 primary vote?

I'm pretty sure it is.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1002222893051232256

[Gass3268]

Dave Weigel continues to be the best elections reporter.
‏
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1003709225845944320

[Gass3268]

I hear there is rain in NoOC. Blue wave canceled.

[Gass3268]

Probably going to watch the first dump of votes come into CA tonight and then go to bed. Makes no sense to stay up and fret about what happens tonight when millions of votes (that will probably lean Democratic/Left) are going to be counted over the next month.

[Gass3268]

It really is ridiculous/disgraceful that CA can’t count faster

Allowing for greater ballot access and flexibility is more important than counting fast, imo.

[Gass3268]

California's elections are bullsh!t. That is what happens when you have supermajorities all across the board, and really no one to keep you accountable.

Accountable for what? Trying to make sure everyone votes?

[Gass3268]

California's elections are bullsh!t. That is what happens when you have supermajorities all across the board, and really no one to keep you accountable.

Accountable for what? Trying to make sure everyone votes?

Their terrible primary system that no one has seriously attempted to get rid of, it cheats voters out of representatives that fit their districts.

Ah, blame that on the voters. They're the ones that wanted it and still like it. Both major parties fought against the ballot measure.

[Gass3268]

Of the 4 OC districts, 17% of Dem voters have never voted before in a midterm, compared to 8% for the GOP voters.

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1004088373974392833

[Gass3268]

California elections are a disgrace, if any of the races are even somewhat close we won't know the results for at least a couple weeks

Allowing everyone the opportunity to vote and being flexible about it is more important then the count being quick.

[Gass3268]

Wow, really weak margin for Menendez in Gloucester.

[Gass3268]

New Jersey Democrats are jacked up!

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004170358231060480

[Gass3268]

NJ-11 is one to watch. DeNeufville is doing better than I'd expected in Morris; he could possibly pull it off and would essentially triage the race, IMO.

GOP has essentially already triage NJ-02, correct?

[Gass3268]

Better hope none of these voters are in CA-39 otherwise it's gonna take weeks:

[Gass3268]

New Jersey Republicans are excited to vote, but not like New Jersey Democrats.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1004183900556546048

[Gass3268]

Democrats are pumped in Johnson County, Iowa (Iowa City):

https://twitter.com/jcauditor/status/1004152122164867072

[Gass3268]

Not that it matters, but anyone notice how Democrats are outvoting Republicans in IA-04?

[Gass3268]

polls have closed in California

Unless your ballot has been postmarked by today and arrives to the polling center by the end of the day Friday.