CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA (user search)
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  CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA (search mode)
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Author Topic: CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA  (Read 109164 times)
LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« on: June 05, 2018, 07:10:15 PM »
Van Drew leading 64-17 in Gloucester county for the NJ-02 D primary. Welp, I was wrong.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2018, 07:12:01 PM »
Wow, Menendez only leading by 15 points in the Gloucester county early vote!!
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LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2018, 07:21:44 PM »
This primary is showing Menendez is very vulnerable.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2018, 09:06:28 PM »
Quote from: AMB1996 on June 05, 2018, 09:02:17 PM
NJ-11 is one to watch. DeNeufville is doing better than I'd expected in Morris; he could possibly pull it off and would essentially triage the race, IMO.

I thought that too, but he's in third place in Passaic county where 70% of the vote is out. Doubt he can win with Ghee and him splitting the remaining not Webber vote.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2018, 09:59:19 PM »
Legitimately scared about California. Tonight has been a great night for Democrats so far, too...
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2018, 10:11:06 PM »
OC VBM VOTE IS IN  - https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

BREAKING - DEMOCRATS IN 2ND PLACE IN ALL COMPETITIVE DISTRICTS

BUT HANS KEIRSTEAD BARELY AHEAD OF BAUGH IN CA-49 AND JOSH NEWMAN GETTING CRUSHED IN RECALL VOTE
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2018, 10:21:37 PM »
Wow, Josh Newman losing his recall vote by 24 points. In a district Clinton won handily.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2018, 10:29:00 PM »
Quote from: henster on June 05, 2018, 10:24:18 PM
CA10 looks like a potential lockout for Dems, this was on nobodies radar.

Where do you see this? NYT doesn't have results yet.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2018, 10:37:01 PM »
CA-10 is terrifying. That would be a major loss.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2018, 10:43:20 PM »
CA-10 bit of relief - San Joaquin county elections site shows conservative challenger Howze (R) 3 points behind Josh Harder for the second place spot.

http://www.sjcrov.org/results.html

But far too close for comfort.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2018, 11:44:22 PM »
Looks like Dems are narrowly avoiding lockouts. But Katie Porter in CA-45, Hans Keirstead in CA-48, and Sara Jacobs in CA-49 are not seen by most as the best/most electable D candidates.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2018, 11:29:19 AM »
Republicans likely to hold their leads in 6 out of the 7 Clinton seats even with late ballots -->
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #12 on: June 06, 2018, 11:38:25 AM »
« Edited: June 06, 2018, 12:17:37 PM by Brittain33 »

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/no-democrats-haven-t-shown-they-re-going-win-house-n880516

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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #13 on: June 06, 2018, 08:33:38 PM »
Freitas was just endorsed by Americans for Prosperity (Koch Brother's Group). Moving VA-Sen to Tossup/Tilt D if he wins the primary over Stewart. He's a very charismatic, good looking state delegate. Kaine is in for a major challenge in a state where Trump isn't even above 50% in disapproval, according to the latest poll.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #14 on: June 06, 2018, 08:49:14 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on June 06, 2018, 08:40:05 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on June 06, 2018, 08:33:38 PM
Freitas was just endorsed by Americans for Prosperity (Koch Brother's Group). Moving VA-Sen to Tossup/Tilt D if he wins the primary over Stewart. He's a very charismatic, good looking state delegate. Kaine is in for a major challenge in a state where Trump isn't even above 50% in disapproval, according to the latest poll.

Gillespie was also considered a good candidate and he lost an open seat contest by almost double digits. That you think Republicans could topple an incumbent Virginia Senator in a D-favorable year is quite funny but predictable for you.

Republican candidate quality doesn't really matter in that race. No matter what happens, you never seem to learn a thing. Your mind model always has a thumb on the scale for Republicans.

1) Trump has gained significant ground upwards in approval since Nov 2017
2) Although Gillespie was touted as a good candidate by the MSM, I think Freitas in comparison actually is better (he can unite the trump + moderate r coalition better_
But Kaine is still a favorite.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2018, 08:54:41 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on June 06, 2018, 08:49:45 PM
you're deliberately trying to get people to react to you. blocked.

Nope. And I think people on this forum are on average, closer to me in their view on the 2018 midterms than someone like Mondale or Pittsburgh Steel. My goal is not to make people react. If I have a goal, it's to speak my beliefs on electoral politics and justify them with evidence.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2018, 07:06:47 PM »
Quote from: The Unbearable Invicibility of Hillary Clinton on June 07, 2018, 07:05:17 PM
Quote from: ltomlinson31 on June 07, 2018, 12:53:50 PM


After today's update, Hans has stretched his lead to 129 votes.

Yikes. Rouda is clearly the better candidate here.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2018, 09:36:24 PM »
Really, really want Corey Stewart to win the primary in 5 days. But I think Freitas is the slight favorite now, he's surging and Stewart is getting a lot of negative stories dropped on him. Bad for Kaine, who will still likely win against Freitas but would easily blowout Stewart.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2018, 10:53:43 AM »
Quote from: heatcharger on June 12, 2018, 09:56:58 AM
Hearing from multiple friends that Dem voters in VA-8 and VA-11 are showing up even though there’s no Democratic ballot in those districts, so they took a Republican one. Many people are going to the Caps parade today. Most importantly, it’s a beautiful sunny day in NoVA.

Stewart is finished.

There's a democratic ballot in Alexandria and Arlington for the county board and mayoral elections, respectively.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2018, 07:56:40 PM »
Richmond City is actually all in if you look at the VA website: https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2018%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/United%20States%20Senate.html
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